本文選題：貨幣政策　切入點(diǎn)：對(duì)外貿(mào)易　出處：《華僑大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：歐元區(qū)成立已有15年，如今已經(jīng)是一個(gè)由18個(gè)國家組成的大型經(jīng)濟(jì)體，也是世界上一體化程度最高的經(jīng)濟(jì)組織。它對(duì)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)及世界貿(mào)易的影響不言而喻，特別是2009年歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)爆發(fā)后，歐元區(qū)的危機(jī)迅速蔓延至全球，給全球經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來了巨大的損失。歐元區(qū)所采取的應(yīng)對(duì)主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)的政策也備受世界關(guān)注。而歐洲央行制定貨幣政策作為其調(diào)節(jié)經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行的重要手段，在歐元區(qū)成立至今對(duì)歐元區(qū)乃至包括中國在內(nèi)的世界各國的經(jīng)濟(jì)及貿(mào)易都產(chǎn)生深遠(yuǎn)的影響，這就是一國貨幣政策的溢出效應(yīng)。 學(xué)術(shù)上研究一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體所制定的貨幣政策對(duì)其他經(jīng)濟(jì)體的溢出效應(yīng)一般有兩種理論模型，第一種是M-F即蒙代爾弗萊明模型，另一種是NOEM模型即新開放條件下的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)模型。我國與歐元區(qū)是世界上重要的經(jīng)濟(jì)體或組織，政策的溢出效應(yīng)導(dǎo)致歐元區(qū)的貨幣政策對(duì)中國的對(duì)外貿(mào)易和實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生了較大的影響。因此為了實(shí)證研究該影響，，本文利用結(jié)構(gòu)向量自回歸SVAR模型，結(jié)合計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)軟件Eviews7.0，采用1999年1季度至2013年4季度的歐元區(qū)及中國的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)實(shí)證分析并研究了歐元區(qū)貨幣政策在兩種不同的傳導(dǎo)渠道-金融市場(chǎng)傳導(dǎo)渠道和國際貿(mào)易傳導(dǎo)渠道下對(duì)我國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值及對(duì)外貿(mào)易的波動(dòng)性影響，通過對(duì)實(shí)證研究所得到的脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)進(jìn)行分析其波動(dòng)效應(yīng)，結(jié)果表明歐元區(qū)貨幣政策的溢出效應(yīng)在兩種傳導(dǎo)渠道下是并重的。而實(shí)證的結(jié)果表明新開放宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)模型更適合來分析歐元區(qū)貨幣政策沖擊對(duì)中國產(chǎn)出及對(duì)外貿(mào)易的影響。
[Abstract]:The euro zone, which has been around for 15 years, is now a large economy of 18 countries and the most integrated economic organization in the world. Its impact on the world economy and world trade is self-evident. In particular, after the European sovereign debt crisis broke out in 2009, the crisis in the euro zone quickly spread to the world. The euro zone's response to the sovereign debt crisis has also attracted world attention. The European Central Bank has set monetary policy as an important means of regulating its economic performance. Since the inception of the euro zone, it has had a profound impact on the economies and trade of the euro zone and even the rest of the world, including China, which is the spillover effect of a country's monetary policy. There are generally two theoretical models for the academic study of spillover effects of monetary policies made by one economy on other economies. The first is M-F, or Mondale Fleming model. The other is the NOEM model, the macroeconomic model under the new opening conditions. China and the euro zone are important economies or organizations in the world. The spillover effect of the policy causes the monetary policy of the euro zone to have a great impact on China's foreign trade and real economy. Therefore, in order to study this effect empirically, this paper uses the structural vector autoregressive SVAR model. Based on the econometrics software Eviews7.0, this paper empirically analyzes and studies the monetary policy of the euro zone in two different transmission channels, the financial market transmission channel and the financial market transmission channel, using the relevant data from the first quarter of 1999 to the fourth quarter of 2013 in the euro area and China. The impact of international trade transmission channels on China's GDP and foreign trade volatility, Through the analysis of the pulse-response function obtained from the empirical research, the wave effect is analyzed. The results show that the spillover effect of monetary policy in the euro zone is equally important in two transmission channels, while the empirical results show that the new open macroeconomic model is more suitable to analyze the impact of monetary policy shocks on China's output and foreign trade.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華僑大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F825;F124;F752

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