本文選題：潛在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率　切入點(diǎn)：生產(chǎn)函數(shù)　出處：《浙江工商大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：1978年以來(lái),浙江省的經(jīng)濟(jì)得到了迅猛發(fā)展,實(shí)現(xiàn)了質(zhì)的飛躍。這一良好的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)態(tài)勢(shì)一直持續(xù)到了 2008年間,隨著美國(guó)金融危機(jī)事件席卷了全球經(jīng)濟(jì),浙江省粗放型經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方式與實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的矛盾日益突出,這就迫使浙江省需要通過(guò)調(diào)整要素投入結(jié)構(gòu)來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)資源最優(yōu)化配置。本文從要素投入的角度出發(fā),對(duì)影響浙江省潛在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率的主要因素和內(nèi)在結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行了研究,建立了以勞動(dòng)力、物資資本、人力資本、知識(shí)資本、制度和技術(shù)進(jìn)步為主要影響因素的擴(kuò)展柯布-道格拉斯生產(chǎn)函數(shù)模型。本文運(yùn)用1990-2014年的時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)各要素投入結(jié)構(gòu)下的要素產(chǎn)出彈性進(jìn)行了估計(jì),得到了浙江省要素產(chǎn)出彈性在這一時(shí)期的變化趨勢(shì),測(cè)算出了浙江省潛在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率的變化情況。研究表明:第一,在勞動(dòng)投入結(jié)構(gòu)中,第三產(chǎn)業(yè)從業(yè)人數(shù)占比的提升對(duì)勞動(dòng)產(chǎn)出彈性的正向影響最大,第二產(chǎn)業(yè)從業(yè)人數(shù)占比的提升對(duì)勞動(dòng)產(chǎn)出彈性的正向影響最小,但是總的來(lái)說(shuō)三次產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)比重對(duì)勞動(dòng)產(chǎn)出彈性影響相差不大;在資本投入結(jié)構(gòu)中,對(duì)物質(zhì)資本產(chǎn)出彈性的正向影響最大的是第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的物質(zhì)投入比重,而第一產(chǎn)業(yè)的物質(zhì)投入比重對(duì)物質(zhì)資本產(chǎn)出彈性產(chǎn)生了最大的負(fù)向影響。在知識(shí)資本結(jié)構(gòu)中,其他部門(mén)比重對(duì)知識(shí)資本產(chǎn)出彈性的正向影響最大,而另外三個(gè)執(zhí)行部門(mén)對(duì)知識(shí)資本產(chǎn)出彈性的正向影響相差不大。第二,1990-2014年間勞動(dòng)產(chǎn)出彈性最高,出現(xiàn)微幅下滑趨勢(shì),說(shuō)明勞動(dòng)產(chǎn)出彈性受到結(jié)構(gòu)變化的影響較小;物質(zhì)資本產(chǎn)出彈性最低,出現(xiàn)明顯上升趨勢(shì),說(shuō)明物質(zhì)資本產(chǎn)出彈性受到結(jié)構(gòu)變化的影響較大;另外,知識(shí)資本產(chǎn)出彈性出現(xiàn)上下波動(dòng)的情況,但總體表現(xiàn)為上升趨勢(shì),呈現(xiàn)出這一原因可能是因?yàn)槠涫艿浇Y(jié)構(gòu)變化的影響較大。第三,2008年以來(lái),資本投資效率的顯著下降成為了導(dǎo)致潛在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率下降的主要原因,但是,由于知識(shí)資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)的升級(jí),浙江省的潛在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率下滑也在一定程度上得到了緩解。另外,本文估算了要素投入因素對(duì)浙江省潛在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)份額占比。研究表明:第一,由于知識(shí)資本存量不僅具有高產(chǎn)出彈性,而且也實(shí)現(xiàn)了較高的增長(zhǎng)率,所以知識(shí)資本對(duì)浙江省潛在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)份額占比最大,達(dá)到了 5.91%;其次,物質(zhì)資本存量帶來(lái)了較高的增長(zhǎng)率,從而促進(jìn)了物質(zhì)資本在浙江省潛在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)份額中僅次于知識(shí)資本,達(dá)到了 3.12%;在制度變遷和勞動(dòng)力因素方面,雖然二者的彈性較高,但是其增長(zhǎng)率較低、波動(dòng)的范圍較小,導(dǎo)致二者對(duì)浙江省潛在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)份額相對(duì)較小。第二,物質(zhì)資本和知識(shí)資本貢獻(xiàn)率有所下降的趨勢(shì),但是知識(shí)資本的貢獻(xiàn)份額增速卻遠(yuǎn)高于物質(zhì)資本的貢獻(xiàn)份額增速。最后,本文分別從各投入要素的角度提出推進(jìn)浙江省經(jīng)濟(jì)快速、健康、可持續(xù)發(fā)展的相關(guān)策略。
[Abstract]:Since 1978, Zhejiang's economy has developed rapidly and achieved a qualitative leap. This good economic growth has continued until 2008, as the financial crisis in the United States swept the global economy. The contradiction between the extensive economic growth mode and the actual economic development in Zhejiang Province is becoming increasingly prominent, which forces Zhejiang Province to realize the optimal allocation of resources by adjusting the structure of the input of the elements. This paper studies the main factors and internal structure of the potential economic growth rate of Zhejiang Province, and establishes the labor force, material capital, human capital and knowledge capital. The extended Cobb-Douglas production function model, which is mainly influenced by institution and technological progress, is used in this paper to estimate the factors' output elasticity under the input structure of each factor by using the time series data from 1990 to 2014. The change trend of factor output elasticity in Zhejiang Province during this period is obtained, and the change of Zhejiang's potential economic growth rate is calculated. The results show that: first, in the structure of labor input, The promotion of the proportion of the tertiary industry employees has the greatest positive impact on the elasticity of labor output, while the increase of the number of the second industry employees has the least positive impact on the elasticity of labor output. But in general, the proportion of employment in three industries has little effect on the elasticity of labor output. In the structure of capital input, the proportion of material input in the tertiary industry has the greatest positive effect on the elasticity of output of material capital. In the structure of intellectual capital, the proportion of other sectors has the greatest positive impact on the elasticity of output of intellectual capital. The other three executive departments have little positive influence on the elasticity of intellectual capital output. The second is the highest elasticity of labor output from 1990 to 2014, showing a slight downward trend, indicating that the impact of structural changes on the elasticity of labor output is small; The elasticity of physical capital output is the lowest, which shows an obvious upward trend, which indicates that the elasticity of physical capital output is greatly affected by structural changes. In addition, the elasticity of intellectual capital output fluctuates up and down, but the overall trend is upward. Third, since 2008, a significant decline in the efficiency of capital investment has been the main cause of the decline in potential economic growth, but, Due to the upgrading of the structure of knowledge assets, the decline in the potential economic growth rate in Zhejiang Province has also been alleviated to a certain extent. This paper estimates the contribution of factor input factors to Zhejiang's potential economic growth. The results show that: firstly, the stock of knowledge capital not only has high output elasticity, but also achieves a high growth rate. Therefore, the contribution of intellectual capital to the potential economic growth of Zhejiang Province is the largest, reaching 5.91. Secondly, the stock of physical capital has brought about a higher growth rate. As a result, the contribution share of material capital in the potential economic growth of Zhejiang Province is second only to intellectual capital, reaching 3.12. In terms of institutional changes and labor factors, both of them have higher flexibility, but their growth rate is relatively low. The range of fluctuations is relatively small, resulting in a relatively small share of their contribution to Zhejiang's potential economic growth. Second, the contribution rate of physical and intellectual capital has declined. However, the growth rate of the contribution share of knowledge capital is much higher than that of material capital. Finally, this paper puts forward the relevant strategies to promote the rapid, healthy and sustainable development of Zhejiang economy from the point of view of each input element.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F127

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