本文選題：消費(fèi)金融　切入點(diǎn)：影響因素　出處：《安徽大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：近年來,我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展步入新常態(tài),經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整步伐加快,金融支持實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的作用愈加顯著。因此如何更好地發(fā)揮金融服務(wù)業(yè)拉動經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的作用,成為眾多學(xué)者研究的重要課題。消費(fèi)金融是消費(fèi)金融機(jī)構(gòu)向居民個人或家庭提供消費(fèi)信貸產(chǎn)品與金融服務(wù),以跨期消費(fèi)的形式最大限度滿足居民的消費(fèi)需求,是金融體系的重要組成部分。作為消費(fèi)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的切入點(diǎn),發(fā)展消費(fèi)金融為我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展提供了新思路。安徽省是我國中部大省,近幾年安徽省生產(chǎn)總值居于全國中等偏上水平,而人均生產(chǎn)總值全國排名較靠后,且較大程度低于全國平均水平;同時安徽省居民消費(fèi)水平較低,消費(fèi)率不足50%,低于全國52%的平均水平且遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于世界79%的平均水平。發(fā)展安徽省消費(fèi)金融,一方面對于調(diào)整安徽省經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)、轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式、完善金融體系具有重要的理論價值,另一方面對刺激安徽省居民消費(fèi)需求,促進(jìn)安徽省經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展具有重要的實(shí)踐價值。首先,本文回顧了國內(nèi)外學(xué)者對消費(fèi)金融的相關(guān)研究,接著闡釋了消費(fèi)金融相關(guān)的消費(fèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)理論與消費(fèi)金融理論,再對消費(fèi)金融的概念做了界定。其次,回顧了安徽省消費(fèi)金融的發(fā)展歷程,并從城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)支出的發(fā)展變化、金融機(jī)構(gòu)消費(fèi)信貸的發(fā)展變化、消費(fèi)金融機(jī)構(gòu)體系的發(fā)展變化三個方面分析了安徽省消費(fèi)金融發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀。同時通過與國內(nèi)其他省份的對比分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)安徽省消費(fèi)金融的發(fā)展存在四個方面問題:居民消費(fèi)金融觀念不強(qiáng),消費(fèi)水平不高;消費(fèi)金融有效供給不足,包括金融總量不大、消費(fèi)金融產(chǎn)品單一、消費(fèi)金融機(jī)構(gòu)體系不完善;社會保障制度不健全以及社會信用環(huán)境不佳。然后,本文在理論分析的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合安徽省實(shí)際情況,從經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會、法律與監(jiān)管制度等方面,對安徽省消費(fèi)金融發(fā)展的影響因素進(jìn)行了分析。接著篩選變量,確定以消費(fèi)信貸余額為被解釋變量,以安徽省生產(chǎn)總值、居民消費(fèi)價格指數(shù)、城鎮(zhèn)居民人均可支配收入、城鎮(zhèn)化率和貸款利率為解釋變量,并通過對各變量進(jìn)行平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、格林因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)、脈沖響應(yīng)分析等實(shí)證研究。結(jié)果表明:影響安徽省消費(fèi)金融發(fā)展的顯著因素是安徽省生產(chǎn)總值、城鎮(zhèn)居民人均可支配收入、居民消費(fèi)價格指數(shù)、城鎮(zhèn)化率和貸款利率,并且居民消費(fèi)價格指數(shù)、貸款利率長期對消費(fèi)信貸是反向影響,安徽省生產(chǎn)總值、城鎮(zhèn)居民人均可支配收入、城鎮(zhèn)化率對消費(fèi)信貸是正向影響。針對安徽省消費(fèi)金融發(fā)展中存在的問題并根據(jù)實(shí)證結(jié)果,最后本文從微觀和宏觀兩個方面為安徽省消費(fèi)金融的發(fā)展提出對策和建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's economic development has stepped into a new normal, the pace of economic restructuring has been quickened, and the role of financial support for the development of the real economy has become more and more significant. Therefore, how to better play the role of financial services in stimulating economic growth, Consumer finance is to provide consumer credit products and financial services to individuals or households, and to meet the consumption needs of residents in the form of intertemporal consumption to the maximum extent. It is an important part of the financial system. As a breakthrough point of consumption and economic growth, the development of consumer finance provides a new way of thinking for the economic development of our country. Anhui Province is a big province in the central part of China. In recent years, the gross domestic product of Anhui Province is in the middle and upper level of the whole country, while the national ranking of the per capita GDP is relatively low, and to a large extent it is lower than the national average. At the same time, the consumption level of the residents in Anhui Province is low. The consumption rate is less than 50%, lower than the national average of 52% and far lower than the world average of 79%. To develop consumer finance in Anhui Province, on the one hand, to adjust the economic structure of Anhui Province and to change the mode of economic development, Improving the financial system has important theoretical value, on the other hand, it has important practical value to stimulate the consumption demand of Anhui residents and promote the economic development of Anhui Province. First, this paper reviews the domestic and foreign scholars' related research on consumer finance. Then it explains the consumer economy theory and the consumption finance theory, then defines the concept of consumer finance. Secondly, it reviews the development course of consumer finance in Anhui Province, and changes from the development of urban and rural residents' consumption expenditure. The development and change of consumer credit of financial institutions and the development and change of consumer financial institutions system are analyzed in three aspects: the present situation of consumer finance development in Anhui Province. At the same time, it is compared with other provinces in China. It is found that there are four problems in the development of consumer finance in Anhui Province: the concept of consumer finance is not strong, the consumption level is not high, and the effective supply of consumer finance is insufficient, including the small amount of finance and the single consumer financial product. The consumptive financial institution system is not perfect, the social security system is not perfect and the social credit environment is not good. Then, on the basis of theoretical analysis, combining with the actual situation of Anhui Province, this paper discusses the economic, social, legal and regulatory systems, etc. This paper analyzes the factors influencing the development of consumer finance in Anhui Province, and then selects the variables to be explained by the balance of consumer credit, the gross domestic product of Anhui Province, the consumer price index, the per capita disposable income of urban residents. Urbanization rate and loan interest rate as explanatory variables, and through the stability of the variables, cointegration test, Green causality test, The results show that the significant factors affecting the development of consumer finance in Anhui Province are the gross domestic product (GDP), the per capita disposable income of urban residents, the consumer price index, the urbanization rate and the loan interest rate. Moreover, the consumer price index and loan interest rate have a negative impact on consumer credit for a long time. The gross domestic product of Anhui Province, the per capita disposable income of urban residents, The urbanization rate has a positive impact on consumer credit. In view of the problems existing in the development of consumer finance in Anhui Province and according to the empirical results, this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions for the development of consumer finance in Anhui Province from the micro and macro aspects.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832;F126.1

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