本文選題：人口老齡化　切入點(diǎn)：消費(fèi)水平　出處：《統(tǒng)計(jì)與決策》2017年21期 　論文類(lèi)型：期刊論文

【摘要】：文章在世代交疊跨期最優(yōu)消費(fèi)理論的基礎(chǔ)上,建立了人口老齡化與居民平均消費(fèi)傾向之間的理論模型,運(yùn)用山東省城鎮(zhèn)居民1992—2015年的相關(guān)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù),利用協(xié)整、誤差修正及VAR模型從城鎮(zhèn)居民平均消費(fèi)傾向、實(shí)際消費(fèi)水平、消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)等方面實(shí)證分析人口老齡化對(duì)居民消費(fèi)行為的動(dòng)態(tài)影響。結(jié)果表明:人口老齡化的加深是居民實(shí)際消費(fèi)行為變化的原因;人口老齡化與山東省城鎮(zhèn)居民平均消費(fèi)傾向負(fù)相關(guān);人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)與各類(lèi)消費(fèi)率均有顯著影響,但影響的大小和方向有差異。老齡化與食品、衣著、家庭設(shè)備用品及服務(wù)消費(fèi)率正相關(guān),與居住、醫(yī)療保健、交通通訊消費(fèi)率負(fù)相關(guān)。
[Abstract]:Based on the intergenerational optimal consumption theory, this paper establishes a theoretical model between the aging population and the average consumption tendency of residents, using the relevant statistical data of urban residents in Shandong Province from 1992 to 2015, and using cointegration. Error correction and VAR model from the average consumption tendency of urban residents, actual consumption level, The dynamic influence of population aging on residents' consumption behavior is analyzed empirically in consumption structure and other aspects. The results show that the deepening of population aging is the reason of the change of residents' actual consumption behavior; The aging population has a negative correlation with the average consumption tendency of urban residents in Shandong Province, and the age structure of the population has a significant impact on all kinds of consumption rates, but there are differences in the magnitude and direction of the effects. The consumption rate of household equipment and services was positively correlated, and negatively correlated with the consumption rate of residential, health care, transportation and communications.
【作者單位】： 遼寧大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;山東工商學(xué)院數(shù)學(xué)與信息科學(xué)學(xué)院;
【基金】：山東省社會(huì)科學(xué)規(guī)劃研究項(xiàng)目(15DJJJ14)
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：C924.24;F126.1

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本文編號(hào)：1558781