本文關鍵詞： 安倍經(jīng)濟學 國際化困境 有效性分析 實證檢驗　出處：《山東師范大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：自1990年以來,日本經(jīng)濟持續(xù)被通貨緊縮、消費低迷、增長乏力所籠罩,為了應對上述經(jīng)濟頹勢,日本首相安倍晉三于2013年推出“老三支箭”政策,即相對寬松的貨幣政策、靈活多變的財政政策以及有力的結構改革。政策實施初期效果明顯,但隨著改革政策的進一步推行,暴露出一系列的弊端,政策效果也大打折扣。為了促進結構性改革的深化,促進經(jīng)濟發(fā)展,支持兒童的發(fā)展培育,改善社會保障,2015年又推出“新三支箭”政策。本文通過實證檢驗和理論分析相結合的方法來研究安倍經(jīng)濟學對解決日本經(jīng)濟國際化困境的有效性,最后得出結論并且提出展望。本文首先對安倍經(jīng)濟學“新、老三支箭”政策做了簡要的概述,闡述了它的內(nèi)容和理論基礎�！袄先Ъ卑`活積極的財政政策、長遠的經(jīng)濟成長戰(zhàn)略和寬松的貨幣政策,“新三支箭”政策包括改善社會保障、支持培育兒童和促進經(jīng)濟發(fā)展三個方面。財政政策的理論基礎是凱恩斯的財政觀點,貨幣政策的理論基礎是濱田宏一的通貨膨脹思想,長遠經(jīng)濟增長戰(zhàn)略的理論基礎是改革派的新經(jīng)濟自由主義反政府干預的觀點。其次對經(jīng)濟國際化困境做出了界定,并詳盡分析了日本當前在經(jīng)濟國際化方面的困境,具體包括:日元的國際化困境,日本市場經(jīng)濟模式的困境,財政貨幣政策的困境,金融體系的再次國際化困境,產(chǎn)業(yè)國際化的困境,少子、老齡化的人口困境。再次運用VAR模型對安倍經(jīng)濟學“新、老三支箭”政策對解決日本面臨的經(jīng)濟國際化困境的有效性進行了實證檢驗。由于日本面臨的經(jīng)濟國際化困境復雜,安倍經(jīng)濟學的政策也涵蓋多個方面,為了研究的深入性,本文選取安倍經(jīng)濟學中量化寬松的貨幣政策作為代表,運用VAR計量模型對量化寬松貨幣政策在解決經(jīng)濟國際化困境方面的有效性進行了著重的實證分析。分析表明,安倍經(jīng)濟學在解決日本經(jīng)濟國際化困境方面有一定的有效性,量化寬松政策刺激了GDP、CPI、EXP的增加,促進了經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展,激發(fā)了市場活力,為經(jīng)濟國際化困境的解決提供了物質(zhì)基礎與動力。之后,運用理論分析來研究安倍經(jīng)濟學其他政策對解決日本經(jīng)濟國際化困境的有效性。分析表明,安倍經(jīng)濟學對解決日本經(jīng)濟國際化困境有一定的有效性,積極的財政政策刺激了日本經(jīng)濟的復興,結構性改革提高了日本女性的就業(yè)率,“新三支箭”政策觸及了日本少子、老齡化的根本問題,激發(fā)了社會活力。但是安倍經(jīng)濟學在解決日本經(jīng)濟國際化困境的過程中也暴露出一些不足,具體體現(xiàn)在:安倍經(jīng)濟政策催生的日元貶值難以持續(xù),為了貶值不惜以鄰為壑,日元在國際間流通受阻;過度干預經(jīng)濟,沒有突破由政府主導的市場經(jīng)濟模式;積極的財政政策、貨幣政策推高了日本債務,使得債務風險增大,貨幣政策傳導機制受阻;日本金融體系國際化面臨更大的資本約束,海外投資者盲目投資股市,加劇金融風險;以政府為導向的市場經(jīng)濟模式極大地限制了日本產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展,產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展模式總體方向正確但實施效果并不理想,經(jīng)濟增長乏力,競爭力不足,創(chuàng)新不夠;少子、老齡化問題缺乏有效解決方案,“女性經(jīng)濟學”使更多女性遠離家庭,加劇少子化困境。最后得出結論并提出展望,安倍經(jīng)濟學短期效果顯著但中長期效果并不明顯,從目前來看,僅僅依靠安倍經(jīng)濟學難以使日本走出經(jīng)濟國際化困境,而且給日本帶來了很多次生的危害。但不可否認,安倍內(nèi)閣所采取的刺激經(jīng)濟的方式是正確的,也是符合日本國情的,而且,安倍經(jīng)濟學還在不斷的調(diào)整中,根據(jù)政策實施過程中出現(xiàn)的問題,安倍政府也在積極尋求方法解決,通過這樣不斷摸索的改革,日本經(jīng)濟國際化困境的解決指日可待。
[Abstract]:Since 1990, the Japanese economy continues to be deflation, consumer downturn, weak growth shrouded, in order to deal with the economic downturn, Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo in 2013 launched the "third arrow" policy, which is a relatively loose monetary policy, flexible fiscal policies and strong structural reforms. The initial implementation of policy effect is obvious, but with the further the implementation of the reform policy, exposed a series of defects, the policy effect is greatly reduced. In order to promote the deepening of structural reform, promoting economic development, foster the development of children's support, improve social security, launched in 2015 and the "new three arrow" policy. Through the combined method of empirical research and theoretical analysis to the study of Andouble economics is effective for the Japanese economy internationalization dilemma, finally draws the conclusion and puts forward the prospect. Firstly, Andouble "new economic school, third Arrow "policy to do a brief overview, discusses its content and theoretical basis. The" three arrows "includes a flexible active fiscal policy, the long-term economic growth strategy and loose monetary policy," the new three arrow "policies including the improvement of social security, support and foster children and promote the three aspects of economic development. The basic theory of fiscal policy is Keynes's financial point of view, the theoretical basis of monetary policy is the theoretical basis of Hamada Hiroshii thought inflation, long-term economic growth strategy is a reformist New Economic Liberalism anti government intervention point. Secondly the definition of economic internationalization dilemma made, and a detailed analysis of the current difficulties in the economic internationalization the Japanese yen internationalization includes: dilemma, mode of economy of market of Japan's plight, fiscal and monetary policy dilemma, dilemma again international financial system, production The internationalization of the plight of minority population, the aging of the dilemma again. A VAR model based on the "new Andouble economics, third arrow" policy on the effectiveness of solving the dilemma of economic internationalization facing Japan empirically. Because of the economic internationalization dilemma faced by Japan complex, Andouble's economics policy also covers many aspects, in order to further study, this paper selects the quantitative easing monetary policy Andouble in economics as a representative, effective use of VAR econometric model of quantitative easing monetary policy in resolving international economic plight is analyzed emphatically. The empirical analysis shows that the Andouble economics is effective in solving the dilemma of the Japanese economy internationalization, quantitative easing policy to stimulate the GDP, CPI, EXP increase, promote economic development, stimulate the vitality of the market, for solving the dilemma of economic internationalization provides Based on quality and power. After that, Andouble to study economics other policy is effective for the Japanese economy internationalization dilemma by theoretical analysis. The analysis shows that the Andouble economics is effective to solve the dilemma of Japan economic internationalization, the proactive fiscal policy to stimulate the economy revival, structural reforms to improve the Japanese women's employment rate, "the new three arrow" policy hit Japan's low birthrate, the fundamental problem of aging, stimulate the vitality of society. But Andouble economics in the process of solving the plight of the Japanese economy internationalization also exposes some shortcomings, embodied in: Andouble economic policy has continued to decline to the depreciation of the yen, at the expense of circulation blocked in the international yen; excessive intervention in the economy, there is no breakthrough market economy mode dominated by the government; the positive fiscal policy, monetary policy to push up the day This debt, the debt risk increases, the monetary policy transmission mechanism is blocked; the internationalization of Japanese financial system faces greater capital constraints, overseas investors blindly invest in stocks, exacerbating the financial risk; the government oriented market economy mode has greatly restricted the development of Japanese industry, the overall direction of industrial development model is correct but the effect is not ideal. Weak economic growth, lack of competitiveness, innovation is not enough; less, the lack of effective solutions to the problem of aging, "female economics" to get more women away from home, increasing birthrate dilemma. Finally draws the conclusion and put forward the prospects, short-term effect is significant but the Andouble economics long-term effect is not obvious, from the current point of view, relying solely on Andouble economics it is difficult to make Japan out of the economic internationalization dilemma, but Japan has brought a lot of secondary harm. But it cannot be denied that Andouble's cabinet. The way to stimulate the economy is correct, but in line with the national conditions of Japan, and Andouble economics is in constant adjustment, according to the problems in the process of policy implementation, the Andouble administration is also actively seeking solutions, through the reform of this trial, to solve the dilemma of economic internationalization point the day and await for it.

【學位授予單位】：山東師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F131.3

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