本文關(guān)鍵詞： 人口規(guī)模 人口結(jié)構(gòu) 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng) 人力資本紅利　出處：《南京大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：關(guān)于人口因素與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系這一問(wèn)題,長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)一直存在很大的紛爭(zhēng)。本文試圖從規(guī)模和結(jié)構(gòu)兩個(gè)方面入手,探討人口因素與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系。本文以技術(shù)進(jìn)步為切入點(diǎn),將人口規(guī)模因素引入羅默的內(nèi)生增長(zhǎng)模型,發(fā)現(xiàn)人口規(guī)模與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間存在正向的線性關(guān)系,這種線性關(guān)系在歷史長(zhǎng)期的角度下得到驗(yàn)證。通過(guò)對(duì)人口規(guī)模與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)關(guān)系的模型進(jìn)行反思,本文發(fā)現(xiàn)人口的年齡結(jié)構(gòu)與知識(shí)結(jié)構(gòu)也是影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)鍵變量。人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)通過(guò)影響勞動(dòng)力的供給和人民的消費(fèi)、儲(chǔ)蓄行為影響經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,人口的知識(shí)結(jié)構(gòu)通過(guò)勞動(dòng)力素質(zhì)、科技創(chuàng)新和對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的支撐這三個(gè)因素對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)起作用。在計(jì)量分析部分,本文以中國(guó)2001-2011年各省的面板數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),分析了人口因素對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的作用,以及三個(gè)人口因素貢獻(xiàn)的變化趨勢(shì),發(fā)現(xiàn)人口規(guī)模和人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)我國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)具有顯著的貢獻(xiàn),但其貢獻(xiàn)有減小的趨勢(shì),而人口知識(shí)結(jié)構(gòu)在我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)中的貢獻(xiàn)明顯上升。本文據(jù)此得出結(jié)論,我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)中的人口紅利因素曾發(fā)揮了重要的作用,但其貢獻(xiàn)目前正在日趨減弱,而從人口紅利向人力資本紅利的轉(zhuǎn)變,是我國(guó)未來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的可取道路。一方面,我國(guó)應(yīng)該通過(guò)教育的投入,積極創(chuàng)造人力資本紅利；另一方面,應(yīng)該著力轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方式,調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),促進(jìn)人力資本紅利的充分利用。
[Abstract]:There has long been a great dispute about the relationship between population factors and economic growth. This paper attempts to start with two aspects: scale and structure. This paper discusses the relationship between population factors and economic growth. This paper introduces the population scale factor into Romer's endogenous growth model, and finds that there is a positive linear relationship between population size and economic growth. This linear relationship has been verified in the long term of history. By reflecting on the model of the relationship between population size and economic growth, This paper finds that the age structure and knowledge structure of the population are also the key variables that affect the economic growth. The age structure of the population affects the economic development by influencing the supply of labor force and the consumption of the people. The knowledge structure of the population plays an important role in economic growth through three factors: the quality of labor force, the innovation of science and technology and the support to the adjustment of industrial structure. In the part of econometric analysis, this paper is based on the panel data of every province in China from 2001 to 2011. This paper analyzes the effect of population factors on China's economic growth and the changing trend of the contribution of three population factors. It is found that the population size and population age structure have a significant contribution to China's economic growth, but its contribution has a decreasing trend. The contribution of population knowledge structure in China's economic growth is obviously increasing. This paper concludes that the demographic dividend factor has played an important role in China's economic growth, but its contribution is weakening day by day. The transition from demographic dividend to human capital dividend is a desirable way for China's future economic development. On the one hand, China should actively create a human capital dividend through investment in education; on the other hand, efforts should be made to change the mode of economic growth. Adjust industrial structure, promote the full utilization of human capital dividend.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F124;C924.2

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