本文關(guān)鍵詞： 信貸投放 固定資產(chǎn)投資 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng) TVP-VAR模型　出處：《宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)研究》2017年05期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：本文選擇1992—2014年國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的季度數(shù)據(jù)、固定資產(chǎn)投資增長(zhǎng)率和信貸規(guī)模數(shù)據(jù)為樣本數(shù)據(jù),通過構(gòu)建TVP-VAR模型實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)了信貸投放、投資行為和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)間的關(guān)系,研究發(fā)現(xiàn),信貸投放作用于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的主要路徑就是通過對(duì)投資規(guī)模和投資效率的影響而實(shí)現(xiàn),但信貸投放、投資與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)間并非始終呈現(xiàn)同步變化的態(tài)勢(shì),在對(duì)信貸總量增長(zhǎng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)后發(fā)現(xiàn),來自于信貸投放的刺激效用能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)短期內(nèi)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),但長(zhǎng)期來看其作用力度呈減弱態(tài)勢(shì);不僅如此,在不同的時(shí)期,信貸所發(fā)揮的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激效用并不完全一致。未來應(yīng)從根本上實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)路徑的改善,也才能真正發(fā)揮信貸、投資對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的有效助推。
[Abstract]:This paper selects the quarterly data of GDP from 1992 to 2014, fixed asset investment growth rate and credit scale data as sample data, and empirically tests the relationship between credit investment, investment behavior and economic growth by constructing TVP-VAR model. The main path of credit investment to economic growth is realized through the influence on investment scale and investment efficiency. However, the relationship between credit investment, investment and economic growth does not always show a trend of synchronous change. After examining the impact of total credit growth on economic growth, it is found that the stimulative effect from credit lending can achieve economic growth in the short term, but in the long run its effect is weakened; not only that, but in different periods, The effect of economic stimulus played by credit is not completely consistent. In the future, we should fundamentally improve the path of economic growth in order to really give full play to credit and the effective boost of investment to economic growth.
【作者單位】： 中央財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)商學(xué)院;
【分類號(hào)】：F124.1;F283;F832.4

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本文編號(hào)：1545679