本文關(guān)鍵詞： 碳足跡 系統(tǒng)動力學(xué) Vensim仿真 低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)　出處：《石家莊經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：目前，在應(yīng)對氣候變化的大背景下，作為以低污染、低排放、低能耗為優(yōu)勢特征的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式，低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)正在成為世界各國的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的新趨勢。其宗旨是，，通過排放更少的溫室氣體，更有效地實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，這能夠有力促進(jìn)高污染、高排放、高能耗的現(xiàn)有發(fā)展模式向可持續(xù)發(fā)展模式的轉(zhuǎn)型。 河北省“十二五”規(guī)劃綱要中提出要著力發(fā)展循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì)，強(qiáng)化推進(jìn)節(jié)能減排，逐步淘汰落后產(chǎn)能，單位生產(chǎn)總值能耗、單位生產(chǎn)總值碳排放量和主要污染物排放量等經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的約束性指標(biāo)，完成國家下達(dá)的目標(biāo)要求。2012年，河北省單位GDP能耗排在全國第八位，單位工業(yè)增加值能耗和單位GDP電耗亦排在全國前列；全社會能源消耗量中，工業(yè)行業(yè)的比重占到了70%以上，而且這一比例還在逐年上升。規(guī)模以上工業(yè)能源消耗總量中，高耗能行業(yè)的比重接近90%。河北省的工業(yè)占全省經(jīng)濟(jì)比重較大，由此帶來的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展負(fù)擔(dān)較重；如何合理發(fā)揮自身優(yōu)勢，降低產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)等劣勢的影響，找到適合河北省低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的路徑，是一個具有現(xiàn)實意義的理論問題。 本文基于發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的根本目標(biāo)，從河北省工業(yè)行業(yè)的現(xiàn)狀出發(fā)，運(yùn)用系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)方法，對于河北省工業(yè)碳足跡系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行仿真模擬。主要內(nèi)容包括： 首先，對河北省的工業(yè)現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)分析。通過分析發(fā)現(xiàn)，近年來，河北省工業(yè)行業(yè)的能源消費量和碳排放量逐年增加，尤其是高耗能行業(yè)，居于各行業(yè)之首。 其次，利用系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)的建模方法，構(gòu)建河北省工業(yè)碳足跡的系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型，并對模型進(jìn)行檢驗。在通過對于模型的驗證之后，分別設(shè)定三種低碳發(fā)展情景，對比其模擬結(jié)果，并將適合河北省低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的模式界定于情景2和情景3之間。 最后，結(jié)合系統(tǒng)的模擬結(jié)果，針對碳足跡系統(tǒng)的制約因素，從產(chǎn)業(yè)優(yōu)化升級、低碳能源開發(fā)、人才技術(shù)和財稅政策支持等方面，對河北省發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)提出了對策和建議。
[Abstract]:At present, under the background of dealing with climate change, as an economic development mode characterized by low pollution, low emission and low energy consumption, low-carbon economy is becoming a new trend of economic development in the world. Economic growth can be achieved more effectively by emitting fewer greenhouse gases, which can contribute to the transformation of the existing development model of high pollution, high emission and high energy consumption to sustainable development model. In the outline of the 12th Five-Year Plan of Hebei Province, it is proposed that efforts should be made to develop the circular economy, strengthen the promotion of energy conservation and emission reduction, and gradually eliminate backward production capacity and energy consumption per unit of gross domestic product. Binding targets for economic development, such as carbon emissions per unit gross domestic product and emissions of major pollutants, meet the requirements set by the state. In 2012, Hebei Province ranked 8th in terms of energy consumption per unit of GDP in the country. Energy consumption per unit of added value of industry and electricity consumption per unit of GDP are also among the top in the country. The proportion of energy consumption in industrial industries accounts for more than 70% of the total energy consumption in the whole society, and this proportion is still rising year by year. The proportion of high-energy consuming industries is close to 90%. The industry in Hebei Province accounts for a large proportion of the province's economy, resulting in a heavy burden of economic development. How to give full play to its own advantages and reduce the impact of disadvantages such as industrial structure, It is a theoretical problem with practical significance to find a path suitable for the development of low-carbon economy in Hebei Province. Based on the basic goal of developing low carbon economy, this paper uses the system dynamics method to simulate the industrial carbon footprint system of Hebei Province, starting from the present situation of Hebei industrial industry. The main contents are as follows:. First of all, the industrial status of Hebei Province is systematically analyzed. It is found that in recent years, the energy consumption and carbon emissions of Hebei industrial industry have increased year by year, especially the high-energy consumption industry, ranking first in all industries. Secondly, using the modeling method of system dynamics, the system dynamics model of industrial carbon footprint of Hebei Province is constructed, and the model is tested. After the verification of the model, three kinds of low-carbon development scenarios are set up respectively. The simulation results are compared and the models suitable for the development of low-carbon economy in Hebei Province are defined between scenario 2 and scenario 3. Finally, based on the simulation results of the system, the countermeasures and suggestions for the development of low-carbon economy in Hebei Province are put forward from the aspects of industrial optimization and upgrading, low-carbon energy development, talent technology and financial and tax policy support, aiming at the constraints of the carbon footprint system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：石家莊經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：X322;F124.5;F427

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前7條

1 譚丹;黃賢金;胡初枝;;我國工業(yè)行業(yè)的產(chǎn)業(yè)升級與碳排放關(guān)系分析[J];四川環(huán)境;2008年02期

2 付允;馬永歡;劉怡君;牛文元;;低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展模式研究[J];中國人口.資源與環(huán)境;2008年03期

3 付加鋒;莊貴陽;高慶先;;低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的概念辨識及評價指標(biāo)體系構(gòu)建[J];中國人口.資源與環(huán)境;2010年08期

4 羅宏;裴瑩瑩;馮慧娟;呂連宏;;促進(jìn)中國低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的政策框架[J];資源與產(chǎn)業(yè);2011年01期

5 武紅;谷樹忠;周洪;王興杰;董德坤;胡詠君;;河北省能源消費、碳排放與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)系[J];資源科學(xué);2011年10期

6 潘家華;陳迎;;碳預(yù)算方案:一個公平、可持續(xù)的國際氣候制度框架[J];中國社會科學(xué);2009年05期

7 陳敏;溫宗國;杜鵬飛;;基于AIM/enduse模型的水泥行業(yè)節(jié)能減排途徑分析[J];中國人口.資源與環(huán)境;2012年S1期

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 米松華;我國低碳現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展研究[D];浙江大學(xué);2013年

本文編號：1541547