本文關(guān)鍵詞： EKC 經(jīng)濟增長 環(huán)境質(zhì)量 回歸分析 因素分解法　出處：《重慶工商大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：近年來，我國經(jīng)濟的快速發(fā)展，隨之爆發(fā)了不少環(huán)境污染問題，“霧霾”已包圍幾大省市，一些地方水污染、大氣污染嚴重，環(huán)境問題日益嚴重，已經(jīng)引起了黨中央、機關(guān)干部和人民群眾的高度重視。重慶市自從直轄以來，經(jīng)濟增長和工業(yè)進程都有了極大的發(fā)展，人民生活水平也不斷提高，與此同時，，難以避免地存在著經(jīng)濟增長與環(huán)境質(zhì)量之間的矛盾，如何在保證經(jīng)濟增長的同時，有效的減少對環(huán)境的污染與破壞，甚至在經(jīng)濟發(fā)展到一定程度時，對環(huán)境質(zhì)量起到改善作用，進而實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟增長與環(huán)境保護的可持續(xù)發(fā)展，成為政府和學者關(guān)注的重點問題。 本文大量搜集、整理和分析國內(nèi)外對經(jīng)濟與環(huán)境研究的文獻，在環(huán)境庫茨涅茲曲線（EKC）假說的基礎(chǔ)上對重慶市經(jīng)濟增長與環(huán)境質(zhì)量的相互關(guān)系進行實證研究，最后結(jié)合重慶市自身特點，提出相應的政策建議。本文主要的結(jié)論為： 重慶市1997-2012年間經(jīng)濟增長和環(huán)境質(zhì)量狀況表明，重慶市自直轄以來實現(xiàn)了經(jīng)濟的快速增長，第二產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值大幅上升，人均GDP不斷提高，環(huán)境污染和生態(tài)環(huán)境總體在一定程度出現(xiàn)好轉(zhuǎn)態(tài)勢，但具體看仍存在著對環(huán)境的較大污染與破壞，環(huán)境問題不容忽視。 EKC的計量結(jié)果表明，經(jīng)濟與環(huán)境之間互為因果，存在長期協(xié)整關(guān)系。環(huán)境污染綜合指數(shù)與經(jīng)濟增長的曲線關(guān)系呈現(xiàn)倒N型，環(huán)境污染程度隨經(jīng)濟增長實現(xiàn)了先下降后上升再下降的趨勢，且分別于2002年和2009年跨過兩次轉(zhuǎn)折點；生態(tài)環(huán)境綜合指數(shù)則呈線性增長趨勢，隨經(jīng)濟增長不斷好轉(zhuǎn)；環(huán)境質(zhì)量綜合指數(shù)二者綜合作用，呈倒U型且在1997年以前跨過EKC頂點進入下降趨勢。而C-D生產(chǎn)函數(shù)的擴展模型的回歸分析則表明了環(huán)境質(zhì)量的惡化會在一定程度上導致經(jīng)濟增長的下滑；相反，生態(tài)環(huán)境的改善，對經(jīng)濟增長起到積極作用。 EKC成因探析中因素分解法和定性分析結(jié)果表明，經(jīng)濟快速增長帶來的規(guī)模效應是造成重慶市自直轄至今污染物排放的增加主要原因，產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變化的優(yōu)劣則與環(huán)境質(zhì)量的好壞成同向變動，在一定程度上影響著環(huán)境污染的排放，而科技進步的技術(shù)效應、交叉效應與政府環(huán)保政策的政策效應對環(huán)境質(zhì)量的改善起到了積極作用。雖然，重慶市產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)仍存在重工業(yè)化、重污染產(chǎn)業(yè)多的局面，但除了1997~2002年和2002~2009年工業(yè)廢氣排放外，經(jīng)濟增長的規(guī)模效應對環(huán)境惡化的作用始終低于產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動的結(jié)構(gòu)效應、技術(shù)效應和交叉效應對環(huán)境質(zhì)量的改善作用之和，使得當前重慶市整體環(huán)境污染成下降趨勢，環(huán)境污染已經(jīng)經(jīng)過拐點，這也可以解釋重慶市環(huán)境庫茨涅茲曲線出現(xiàn)了倒N型和倒U型的原因。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid economic development of our country, a lot of environmental pollution problems have broken out. "haze" has surrounded several major provinces and cities, polluted water in some places, seriously polluted the atmosphere, and the environmental problems have become increasingly serious, which has caused the Party Central Committee. Since Chongqing became under its direct jurisdiction, economic growth and industrial progress have been greatly developed, and the living standards of the people have been constantly improved, while at the same time, There is inevitably a contradiction between economic growth and environmental quality. How to effectively reduce the pollution and damage to the environment while ensuring economic growth, and even improve the environmental quality when the economy develops to a certain extent, Therefore, the sustainable development of economic growth and environmental protection has become the focus of attention of the government and scholars. This paper collects, collates and analyzes domestic and foreign literature on economic and environmental research, and makes an empirical study on the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality in Chongqing on the basis of the EKChypothesis of environmental Kuznietz curve. Finally, according to Chongqing's own characteristics, the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:. The economic growth and environmental quality of Chongqing between 1997 and 2012 show that Chongqing has achieved rapid economic growth since its direct jurisdiction, the output value of the secondary industry has increased substantially, and the per capita GDP has been continuously rising. Environmental pollution and ecological environment have improved to a certain extent, but there is still a great deal of pollution and damage to the environment, and environmental problems can not be ignored. The econometric results of EKC show that the relationship between economy and environment is causality, there is a long-term cointegration relationship, and the relationship between the comprehensive index of environmental pollution and economic growth is inversely N-type. The degree of environmental pollution decreased first and then increased and then decreased with the economic growth, and reached two turning points on 2002 and 2009 respectively, while the comprehensive index of ecological environment showed a linear increasing trend and improved continuously with the economic growth. Comprehensive index of environmental quality, The regression analysis of the extended model of C-D production function shows that the deterioration of environmental quality will lead to the decline of economic growth to some extent; on the contrary, the improvement of ecological environment will lead to the improvement of ecological environment. Play a positive role in economic growth. The results of factor decomposition and qualitative analysis show that the scale effect brought by rapid economic growth is the main reason for the increase of pollutant emission from Chongqing to now. The advantages and disadvantages of the industrial structure changes in the same direction as the quality of the environment, which to some extent affect the emission of environmental pollution, and the technological effects of scientific and technological progress. The cross effect and the policy effect of the government's environmental protection policy have played a positive role in improving the environmental quality. Although the industrial structure of Chongqing still has the situation of heavy industrialization and heavy pollution industry, except industrial exhaust emissions from 1997 to 2002 and from 2002 to 2009, The scale effect of economic growth on environmental deterioration is always lower than the structural effect of industrial structure change. Environmental pollution has gone through the inflection point, which can also explain why the inverted N and U type appeared in the Kuznietz curve of Chongqing.
【學位授予單位】：重慶工商大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：X22;F127

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