2016年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)分析及2017年預(yù)期和建議
本文關(guān)鍵詞: 年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì) 發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體 新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體 全球經(jīng)濟(jì)治理 出處:《中國(guó)流通經(jīng)濟(jì)》2016年12期 論文類型:期刊論文
【摘要】:2016年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)總體處于經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展底部,短期難以出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇奇跡,發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體總體走低,新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體總體走高走強(qiáng)但分化明顯。世界經(jīng)濟(jì)在諸多舊有矛盾尚未解決的情況下,又出現(xiàn)了一系列新的情況和問(wèn)題,新舊矛盾交織并存。世界經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)入全球化4.0時(shí)代,新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體特別是金磚國(guó)家在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)治理中開始發(fā)揮積極正面作用,創(chuàng)新驅(qū)動(dòng)倡議成為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的驅(qū)動(dòng)力。近幾年特別是2016年下半年以來(lái),中國(guó)開始在世界舞臺(tái)上扮演更加重要的角色,中國(guó)消費(fèi)與投資、中國(guó)所制定的方案、中國(guó)所提出的倡議對(duì)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與世界經(jīng)濟(jì)格局的影響日益增大。2017年我國(guó)所面臨的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)和外部環(huán)境依然嚴(yán)峻,為更好地適應(yīng)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的新常態(tài)、世界貨幣政策的持續(xù)調(diào)整和分化、新貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義的抬頭和全球新技術(shù)革命的加快發(fā)展,我們要繼續(xù)推動(dòng)全球宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的協(xié)調(diào),繼續(xù)落實(shí)我國(guó)"十三五"規(guī)劃和"一帶一路"重大倡議,繼續(xù)推動(dòng)落實(shí)二十國(guó)集團(tuán)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人峰會(huì)上達(dá)成的共識(shí)以及2014年APEC峰會(huì)形成的決議,推動(dòng)亞太自由貿(mào)易區(qū)進(jìn)程,及早制定和研究應(yīng)對(duì)方案,化解國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性貶值與突發(fā)性金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、全球性高債務(wù)高杠桿風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、新一輪制造業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移風(fēng)險(xiǎn)以及政治因素所導(dǎo)致的經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
[Abstract]:In 2016, the world economy as a whole was at the bottom of economic development, and it was difficult to see a miracle of economic recovery in the short term. A series of new situations and problems have emerged, new and old contradictions are intertwined and coexisting. As the world economy enters the era of globalization 4.0, emerging economies, especially the BRICS countries, are beginning to play an active and positive role in global economic governance. Innovation-driven initiatives have become the driving force behind the global economic recovery. In recent years, especially since the second half of 2016, China has begun to play a more important role on the world stage. In 2017, the economic situation and external environment facing China are still grim, in order to better adapt to the new normal of the world economy. With the continuous adjustment and division of world monetary policy, the rise of new trade protectionism and the accelerated development of the global new technological revolution, we must continue to promote the coordination of global macroeconomic policies. Continue to implement China's 13th Five-Year Plan and major initiatives of "Belt and Road", continue to promote the implementation of the consensus reached at the summit of the leaders of the Group of 20 and the resolution reached at the APEC summit on 2014, and promote the process of the Asia-Pacific Free Trade area. Early formulation and study of countermeasures to resolve the international competitive devaluation and sudden financial risks, global high debt high leverage risk, a new round of manufacturing transfer risk and political factors caused by economic risk.
【作者單位】: 中國(guó)國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)交流中心;
【分類號(hào)】:F113
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