本文關(guān)鍵詞： 產(chǎn)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng) 演化機制 能值分析 系統(tǒng)動力學 仿真模擬　出處：《天津理工大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：新世紀以來，改變經(jīng)濟增長模式，提高環(huán)境質(zhì)量已成為我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的重要組成部分。十八大報告更是把生態(tài)文明建設(shè)放在突出地位，強調(diào)“要將生態(tài)文明建設(shè)融入經(jīng)濟建設(shè)、政治建設(shè)、文化建設(shè)、社會建設(shè)各方面和全過程，走一條科技含量高、經(jīng)濟效益好、資源消費低、環(huán)境污染少、人力資源得到發(fā)揮的新型工業(yè)化路子”，實現(xiàn)社會經(jīng)濟的全面、高效、健康發(fā)展。產(chǎn)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)作為可持續(xù)發(fā)展的重要實踐形式，其發(fā)展、演化一直是人們關(guān)注的焦點。但是，隨著產(chǎn)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的不斷發(fā)展，由其結(jié)構(gòu)、技術(shù)以及外部環(huán)境等因素帶來的諸多問題逐漸顯露，對系統(tǒng)的可持續(xù)演進造成了一定的負面影響。因此，深入研究產(chǎn)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)演進過程中各組分的作用關(guān)系，定量的評價演進的可持續(xù)性，確定系統(tǒng)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵影響因子，并通過模擬其未來的演進情況，探尋系統(tǒng)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展模式，對于推動我國區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)系統(tǒng)、生活系統(tǒng)以及環(huán)境系統(tǒng)的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展具有重要意義。 本文以產(chǎn)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)為研究對象，引入產(chǎn)業(yè)生態(tài)理論、能值分析方法以及系統(tǒng)動力學建模方法，對產(chǎn)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)演進過程進行定量的評價與動態(tài)的模擬，通過不同經(jīng)濟發(fā)展模式的設(shè)置，探討適合產(chǎn)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)演進的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展模式，并以天津濱海新區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)為例進行實證分析，以驗證模型與方法的有效性。主要內(nèi)容如下： （1）對國內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究成果進行綜述，系統(tǒng)的回顧國內(nèi)外學者對產(chǎn)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的發(fā)展演進研究中存在的問題、能值分析方法以及系統(tǒng)動力學方法在經(jīng)濟、社會領(lǐng)域研究的應(yīng)用，并結(jié)合我國產(chǎn)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)發(fā)展實際，闡述產(chǎn)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的內(nèi)涵與特征，為系統(tǒng)的評價與仿真模擬做鋪墊； （2）應(yīng)用能值分析理論評價系統(tǒng)演進的可持續(xù)性。從系統(tǒng)論角度出發(fā)，將產(chǎn)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)劃分為若干子系統(tǒng)，并建立相應(yīng)的能值評價指標體系，定量的分析系統(tǒng)演進中的經(jīng)濟、社會以及環(huán)境效益，，評價系統(tǒng)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展水平； （3）利用系統(tǒng)動力學建模方法，探討系統(tǒng)運行機理及各子系統(tǒng)間的作用關(guān)系，構(gòu)建包含能值評價體系的產(chǎn)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)演進模型，從動態(tài)角度評價系統(tǒng)發(fā)展的可持續(xù)性問題； （4）以天津濱海新區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)為例，對系統(tǒng)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀進行能值分析，并構(gòu)建系統(tǒng)的演進模型，通過定量的仿真與模擬，分析不同經(jīng)濟發(fā)展模式下系統(tǒng)的綜合效益以及可持續(xù)性問題，并對結(jié)果進行深入剖析，同時驗證模型在產(chǎn)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)演化問題研究中的有效性。 本文的研究以期能為天津濱海新區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)未來產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型、資源利用優(yōu)化及區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展提供理論依據(jù)與決策參考。
[Abstract]:Since the new century, changing the pattern of economic growth and improving the quality of environment has become an important part of our country's economic development strategy. The 18 report puts the construction of ecological civilization in a prominent position. It is necessary to integrate the construction of ecological civilization into economic construction, political construction, cultural construction, and social construction in all aspects and the whole process, and take a high scientific and technological content, good economic benefits, low consumption of resources, and less environmental pollution. The new way of industrialization of human resources is to realize the comprehensive, efficient and healthy development of social economy. As an important practical form of sustainable development, the industrial ecosystem develops. Evolution has always been the focus of attention. However, with the continuous development of industrial ecosystem, many problems caused by its structure, technology and external environment are gradually revealed. It has a negative impact on the sustainable evolution of the system. Therefore, the role of components in the evolution of industrial ecosystem is deeply studied, and the sustainability of evolution is evaluated quantitatively. Determine the system sustainable development of the key factors, and by simulating its future evolution, explore the system of sustainable development model, to promote China's regional industrial system. The coordinated development of living system and environment system is of great significance. This paper takes the industrial ecosystem as the research object, introduces the industrial ecology theory, the emergy analysis method and the system dynamics modeling method, carries on the quantitative evaluation and the dynamic simulation to the industrial ecosystem evolution process. Through the establishment of different economic development models, this paper discusses the economic development model suitable for the evolution of industrial ecosystem, and takes the industrial ecosystem of Tianjin Binhai New area as an example to carry on the empirical analysis. To verify the validity of the model and method. The main contents are as follows: 1) summarize the related research results at home and abroad, systematically review the problems existing in the research on the development and evolution of industrial ecosystem, the method of energy analysis and the method of system dynamics in the economy. The application of social research and the development of industrial ecosystem in China, the connotation and characteristics of the industrial ecosystem are expounded, which pave the way for the evaluation and simulation of the system. 2) applying emergy analysis theory to evaluate the sustainability of the evolution of the system. From the point of view of system theory, the industrial ecosystem is divided into several subsystems, and the corresponding emergy evaluation index system is established. Quantitative analysis of the economic, social and environmental benefits in the evolution of the system, and evaluation of the sustainable development level of the system; 3) using the modeling method of system dynamics, the mechanism of system operation and the relationship between subsystems are discussed, and the evolution model of industrial ecosystem including emergy evaluation system is constructed. Evaluating the sustainability of system development from a dynamic perspective; Taking the industrial ecosystem of Tianjin Binhai New area as an example, the development status of the system is analyzed by emergy analysis, and the evolution model of the system is constructed, and the quantitative simulation and simulation are carried out. The comprehensive benefit and sustainability of the system under different economic development models are analyzed, and the results are deeply analyzed, and the validity of the model in the study of the evolution of industrial ecosystem is verified at the same time. The purpose of this paper is to provide theoretical basis and decision reference for the future industrial structure transformation, resource utilization optimization and regional sustainable development of industrial ecosystem in Tianjin Binhai New area.
【學位授予單位】：天津理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：N941.3;F127

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