本文關(guān)鍵詞： 經(jīng)濟(jì)-能源-環(huán)境(3E)系統(tǒng) 協(xié)調(diào)度 可持續(xù)發(fā)展 甘肅省　出處：《蘭州大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：全面、可持續(xù)發(fā)展是世界各國(guó)和全人類的共同目標(biāo)和不懈追求,經(jīng)濟(jì)、能源、環(huán)境可持續(xù)發(fā)展是可持續(xù)發(fā)展的重要和不可或缺的一部分。經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展離不開(kāi)能源和環(huán)境的支撐,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和能源使用產(chǎn)生了嚴(yán)重的環(huán)境問(wèn)題,能源短缺和環(huán)境惡化制約著經(jīng)濟(jì)的進(jìn)一步、健康發(fā)展。能否實(shí)現(xiàn)3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)、可持續(xù)發(fā)展,在很大程度上決定著全面可持續(xù)發(fā)展的進(jìn)程。基于此,本研究以經(jīng)濟(jì)落后、貧困問(wèn)題突出、生態(tài)脆弱、環(huán)境問(wèn)題嚴(yán)重的甘肅省作為研究區(qū),利用1985-2011年間相關(guān)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù),主要開(kāi)展了以下幾方面的工作,并得出相應(yīng)的結(jié)論： (1)運(yùn)用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)模型,分析了工業(yè)污染物排放量與能源消費(fèi)量的灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度。發(fā)現(xiàn)工業(yè)污染物排放量與煤炭和電力消耗量關(guān)聯(lián)度較高,與石油和天然氣的關(guān)聯(lián)度較小。 (2)采用EKC假說(shuō)計(jì)量模型,分析了收入與污染關(guān)系。結(jié)果表明污染與收入關(guān)系因污染物不同而不同。工業(yè)廢氣和SO2排放量隨著收入提高總體上上升,而工業(yè)廢水、固廢和粉(煙)塵排放量總體上下降。環(huán)境與經(jīng)濟(jì)之間的EKC曲線關(guān)系在甘肅未能得以體現(xiàn)。 (3)將環(huán)境壓力視為人口數(shù)量、收入(人均GDP)和污染物排放強(qiáng)度三種因素綜合作用的結(jié)果,運(yùn)用完全結(jié)構(gòu)分解模型分解、分析了三種因素對(duì)環(huán)境壓力變化的貢獻(xiàn)。結(jié)果表明人口增長(zhǎng)加重了環(huán)境壓力,但其影響逐漸減弱,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)也加大了環(huán)境壓力,而技術(shù)進(jìn)步有助于降低環(huán)境壓力。 (4)運(yùn)用協(xié)整、Granger因果檢驗(yàn)?zāi)Ｐ头治隽四茉聪M(fèi)及其構(gòu)成與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系。發(fā)現(xiàn)能源消費(fèi)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間是一種單向的因果關(guān)系,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是帶動(dòng)能源消費(fèi)的格蘭杰原因,但能源消費(fèi)并不必然促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。 (5)采用結(jié)構(gòu)分解分析法,將能源強(qiáng)度變化分解為結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)和技術(shù)效應(yīng),測(cè)算了兩種效應(yīng)對(duì)能源強(qiáng)度變化的貢獻(xiàn)。能源強(qiáng)度持續(xù)下降主要源于能源效率(以第二產(chǎn)業(yè)為主)的提高,而經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的貢獻(xiàn)較低。1985-2011年間,技術(shù)份額累計(jì)貢獻(xiàn)106.42%,結(jié)構(gòu)份額累計(jì)貢獻(xiàn)-6.42%；第二產(chǎn)業(yè)的效率份額累積貢獻(xiàn)達(dá)到71.63%,第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的效率份額累積貢獻(xiàn)達(dá)到34.81%；第三產(chǎn)業(yè)能源效率提高對(duì)能源強(qiáng)度降低的促進(jìn)作用越來(lái)越明顯,而第一產(chǎn)業(yè)的結(jié)構(gòu)份額和效率份額對(duì)能源強(qiáng)度變化的影響較弱。 (6)構(gòu)建了甘肅3E系統(tǒng)綜合發(fā)展指標(biāo)體系,運(yùn)用主成分分析法、熵權(quán)系數(shù)法測(cè)算了3E綜合發(fā)展水平�？傮w上,經(jīng)濟(jì)、能源和環(huán)境綜合發(fā)展水平均呈上升趨勢(shì),但波動(dòng)幅度較大。綜合發(fā)展水平依賴于總量、結(jié)構(gòu)和質(zhì)量水平共同作用,不同時(shí)間段內(nèi),總量、結(jié)構(gòu)和質(zhì)量水平對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)、能源和環(huán)境綜合發(fā)展水平的貢獻(xiàn)各不相同。 (7)在(6)的基礎(chǔ)上,采用基于回歸分析法的系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)度模型,評(píng)價(jià)了甘肅3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展水平。結(jié)果表明3E系統(tǒng)內(nèi)任意兩子系統(tǒng)的協(xié)調(diào)度,以及3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)水平總體上均較差,且波動(dòng)變化大、穩(wěn)定性差。在3E系統(tǒng)中,只要任意一個(gè)子系統(tǒng)的發(fā)展水平與另兩個(gè)不一致、不能匹配時(shí),系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)度就會(huì)保持較低的水平；只有當(dāng)三者的發(fā)展水平均較高且較一致、相互匹配時(shí),或者三者的發(fā)展水平均提高且提高的速度較為一致時(shí),系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)度會(huì)不斷提高,保持在較高的水平。
[Abstract]:Sustainable development is an important and indispensable part of sustainable development . Economic development is inseparable from energy and environment , economic development and energy use have serious environmental problems , energy shortage and environmental degradation restrict the further and healthy development of economy . ( 1 ) The grey relation between the emission of industrial pollutants and the consumption of energy is analyzed by using the grey correlation model . It is found that the correlation between the emission of industrial pollutants and the consumption of coal and electricity is high , which is related to the correlation of oil and gas . ( 2 ) Using EKC hypothesis , the relationship between income and pollution is analyzed . The results show that the relationship between pollution and income is different because of the different pollutants . Industrial waste gas and SO2 emissions generally decrease with the increase of income , while industrial waste water , solid waste and dust ( smoke ) dust emissions generally fall . The relationship between environment and economy is not reflected in Gansu . ( 3 ) The environmental pressure is regarded as the result of three factors of population quantity , income ( per capita GDP ) and emission intensity of pollutants . The contribution of three factors to environmental pressure change is analyzed by using full structural decomposition model . ( 4 ) The relationship between energy consumption and its composition and economic growth has been analyzed by using co - integration and causality test model . It is found that energy consumption and economic growth are a one - way causal relationship , and economic growth is the reason for driving energy consumption , but energy consumption does not necessarily promote economic growth . ( 5 ) The energy intensity change is decomposed into structural effects and technical effects by using the structural decomposition analysis method , and the contribution of the two effects to the energy intensity change is calculated . The cumulative contribution of energy intensity is mainly derived from the improvement of energy efficiency ( based on the second industry ) , and the contribution of the economic structure adjustment is low . The cumulative contribution of the technical share in the second industry has reached 71.63 % , the cumulative contribution of the efficiency share of the tertiary industry has reached 34.81 % . ( 6 ) The comprehensive development index system of the 3E system of Gansu was constructed , and the comprehensive development level of 3E was calculated by using principal component analysis method and entropy weight coefficient method . Overall , the comprehensive development level of economy , energy and environment increased , but the fluctuation was large . The comprehensive development level depended on the combination of total quantity , structure and quality level . The contribution of total , structure and quality level to the economic , energy and environmental comprehensive development level was different in different time period . ( 7 ) On the basis of ( 6 ) , a system coordination degree model based on regression analysis method is adopted to evaluate the coordination development level of the 3E system in Gansu . The results show that the coordination degree of any two subsystems in the 3E system and the overall level of the 3E system are poor , and the fluctuation is large and the stability is poor . In the 3E system , the system coordination degree can be kept low as long as the development level of any one subsystem is high and the development level of the three systems is improved and the speed is improved .

【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F127;X24

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