本文關(guān)鍵詞： FDI 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng) 門檻效應(yīng)　出處：《山東大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：外商直接投資(FDI)對(duì)一國(guó)的貿(mào)易增長(zhǎng)、技術(shù)進(jìn)步以及產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整升級(jí)都具有重要的促進(jìn)作用。改革開放以來,中國(guó)實(shí)際利用外商直接投資不斷增加,FDI已成為影響中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要因素之一。根據(jù)聯(lián)合國(guó)貿(mào)易和發(fā)展會(huì)議(UNCTAD)發(fā)布的《2015年世界投資報(bào)告》,中國(guó)吸收FDI在2014年首次超過美國(guó),成為世界上最大的外國(guó)資本流入國(guó)家,但緊接著在2015年便被美國(guó)大幅超越。可見,在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)不明朗、中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展進(jìn)入新常態(tài)的背景下,中國(guó)利用外商投資的水平要繼續(xù)保持穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)仍然面臨挑戰(zhàn),因而在新形勢(shì)下深化FDI對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的研究非常有必要。本文系統(tǒng)性地研究了 FDI對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的門檻效應(yīng),具體涉及外商直接投資的范圍及進(jìn)入模式的研究、外商直接投資對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響研究、外商直接投資門檻效應(yīng)理論等方面。外商直接投資對(duì)資本輸入國(guó)家的作用主要體現(xiàn)在資本效應(yīng)和技術(shù)外溢效應(yīng)上,然而這兩方面效應(yīng)在數(shù)據(jù)上的表現(xiàn)并不明顯,本文傾向于直接對(duì)最終效果,也就是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)進(jìn)行衡量。本文選擇經(jīng)典的柯布-道格拉斯生產(chǎn)函數(shù),并構(gòu)建了門限回歸模型,對(duì)外商直接投資的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)效應(yīng)進(jìn)行了回歸,對(duì)四個(gè)可能的門檻變量進(jìn)行探究,發(fā)現(xiàn)了它們各自具有的門檻效應(yīng)。研究結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),在不考慮門檻變量的情況下,外商直接投資對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的促進(jìn)效果是顯著的,彈性系數(shù)達(dá)到了 1.94。在得到總體回歸效果顯著后,我們針對(duì)四個(gè)門檻效應(yīng)進(jìn)行了驗(yàn)證。發(fā)現(xiàn)以基礎(chǔ)教育年限為衡量的人力資本只具有單門檻效應(yīng),門檻值為8.3834;對(duì)以交通運(yùn)力為代表的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施水平的門檻效應(yīng)研究中,我們也發(fā)現(xiàn)了單門檻效應(yīng),該數(shù)值是比較高的,并且在我國(guó)能夠達(dá)到的地區(qū)比較少;在對(duì)外貿(mào)易開放度分析后同樣也得到了單門檻效應(yīng),但是該門檻值只有北京、上海、廣東等經(jīng)濟(jì)最發(fā)達(dá)的地方可以達(dá)到;對(duì)金融發(fā)展程度的研究中,我們得到了單門檻效應(yīng),并且門檻值是大部分地區(qū)可以達(dá)到的。
[Abstract]:Foreign direct investment (FDI) plays an important role in promoting a country's trade growth, technological progress and industrial structure adjustment and upgrading. Since the reform and opening up, China's actual use of foreign direct investment has been increasing. FDI has become one of the most important factors affecting China's economic development. According to the 2015 World Investment report issued by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). China overtook the United States for the first time in 2014 to become the world's largest inflow of foreign capital, but was overtaken by the United States in 2015. Under the background of China's economic development entering the new normal, the level of foreign investment in China will continue to maintain stable growth and still face challenges. Therefore, it is necessary to deepen the study of the impact of FDI on China's economy under the new situation. This paper systematically studies the threshold effect of FDI on China's economic growth. Specifically involves the scope of foreign direct investment and the model of entry, the impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth. The effect of FDI on the capital importing country is mainly reflected in the capital effect and technology spillover effect, but these two effects are not obvious in the data. This paper tends to directly measure the final effect, that is, economic growth. This paper chooses the classic Cobb-Douglas production function, and constructs a threshold regression model. The economic growth effect of FDI is regressed, four possible threshold variables are explored, and their threshold effects are found. The results show that the threshold variables are not considered. The effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth is significant, the elastic coefficient reaches 1.94. After the overall regression effect is significant. We verify the four threshold effects. It is found that the human capital measured by the basic education years only has a single threshold effect, the threshold value is 8.3834; In the study of the threshold effect of infrastructure level represented by transportation capacity, we also found the single threshold effect, which is relatively high, and can be achieved in less areas in China; After the analysis of foreign trade openness, the single threshold effect is also obtained, but only Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong and other economically most developed places can achieve the threshold. In the study of the degree of financial development, we get the single threshold effect, and the threshold value can be achieved in most areas.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F124.1

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