本文關(guān)鍵詞： 能源效率 動(dòng)態(tài)模型 非線性 分位數(shù)面板 門限面板　出處：《浙江工商大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：改革開放以來,我國(guó)綜合國(guó)力驟升,這都得益于經(jīng)濟(jì)、工業(yè)化和城市化的快速發(fā)展。經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展伴隨著能源的大量消耗,工業(yè)化和城市化帶來高投入、高能耗、低效率、發(fā)展方式粗放、結(jié)構(gòu)不合理等現(xiàn)象,導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與能源消耗之間的矛盾日益突出,大大拉低了能源效率�，F(xiàn)今,如何有效提高能源效率成為了當(dāng)下的熱點(diǎn)問題。產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)作為影響經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和能源效率的重要因素,其結(jié)構(gòu)性調(diào)整成為提高能源效率必不可少的手段。本文在介紹能源效率和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的基本理論、現(xiàn)狀和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)影響能源效率的理論機(jī)制的基礎(chǔ)上,選取單位能耗GDP測(cè)度能源效率、三種不同的指標(biāo)分別度量產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),在對(duì)已有文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行學(xué)習(xí)、歸納和整理之后,加入經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、城市化水平、能源價(jià)格和技術(shù)進(jìn)步這四個(gè)控制變量,分別針對(duì)全國(guó)和省際數(shù)據(jù)建立模型,進(jìn)行研究和分析,得到以下結(jié)論:(1)描述性分析發(fā)現(xiàn),第二產(chǎn)業(yè)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的拉動(dòng)力雖然大,但需要消耗以煤炭為主的大量能源;第三產(chǎn)業(yè)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的拉動(dòng)力沒有第二產(chǎn)業(yè)顯著,但對(duì)能源的依賴度遠(yuǎn)低于第二產(chǎn)業(yè),且其主要消耗以天然氣、電力等高效能源為主。(2)時(shí)序數(shù)據(jù)動(dòng)態(tài)計(jì)量模型結(jié)果表明,能源效率滯后項(xiàng)對(duì)能源效率有較大的影響;產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)能源效率的影響滯后現(xiàn)象明顯;另外,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和城市化水平對(duì)能源效率也具有滯后現(xiàn)象。(3)靜態(tài)面板模型結(jié)果顯示,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)能源效率的影響存在區(qū)域性,第二產(chǎn)業(yè)占比對(duì)能源效率有抑制影響,第三產(chǎn)業(yè)占比對(duì)能源效率有促進(jìn)作用;經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、城市化和技術(shù)進(jìn)步能有效地促進(jìn)能源效率提高,能源價(jià)格則會(huì)抑制能源效率的提高。(4)動(dòng)態(tài)面板模型結(jié)果表明,能源效率的滯后一期項(xiàng)對(duì)能源效率有顯著正向影響;其他變量對(duì)能源效率的影響與靜態(tài)面板模型結(jié)果相似。(5)分位數(shù)面板模型結(jié)果顯示,第二產(chǎn)業(yè)占比和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)占比對(duì)能源效率的影響在各分位點(diǎn)上始終保持負(fù)向和正向作用,但影響程度都存在波動(dòng)性;其他變量在各分位數(shù)點(diǎn)上對(duì)能源效率的影響也存在變動(dòng)。(6)門限面板模型結(jié)果表明,以第二產(chǎn)業(yè)占比或第三產(chǎn)業(yè)占比表征的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與能源效率的模型都不存在門限效應(yīng),但非農(nóng)產(chǎn)業(yè)占比與能源效率存在單門限效應(yīng),非農(nóng)產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展可以促進(jìn)能源效率提升。最后,對(duì)如何提高我國(guó)能源效率提出了幾點(diǎn)政策建議。本文的創(chuàng)新主要體現(xiàn)在以下幾個(gè)方面:(1)運(yùn)用靜態(tài)面板模型和動(dòng)態(tài)面板模型就產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與能源效率的線性關(guān)系進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析。(2)利用分位數(shù)面板模型和門限面板模型解析產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和能源效率的非線性關(guān)系。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's comprehensive national strength has risen sharply, which has benefited from the rapid development of economy, industrialization and urbanization. The rapid economic development accompanied by a large amount of energy consumption, industrialization and urbanization bring high investment. High energy consumption, low efficiency, extensive development mode, unreasonable structure and other phenomena, leading to the increasingly prominent contradiction between economic development and energy consumption, greatly reduced the energy efficiency. How to effectively improve energy efficiency has become a hot issue. Industrial structure as an important factor affecting economic development and energy efficiency. The structural adjustment has become an indispensable means to improve energy efficiency. This paper introduces the basic theory of energy efficiency and industrial structure, the current situation and the theoretical mechanism of industrial structure affecting energy efficiency. Choose unit energy consumption GDP to measure energy efficiency, three different indicators to measure the industrial structure, in the existing literature learning, induction and collation, add economic development, urbanization level. The four control variables of energy price and technological progress are studied and analyzed according to the national and provincial data, and the following conclusions are obtained: 1) descriptive analysis. Although the second industry has a large pull on economic growth, it needs to consume a large amount of energy based on coal. The third industry has no significant impact on economic growth, but its dependence on energy is much lower than that of the secondary industry, and its main consumption is natural gas. Dynamic measurement model of time-series data shows that the lag term of energy efficiency has great influence on energy efficiency. The effect of industrial structure on energy efficiency is lagging behind. In addition, economic development and urbanization level also have lag phenomenon on energy efficiency. The results of static panel model show that the impact of industrial structure on energy efficiency is regional. The proportion of the secondary industry has a restraining effect on the energy efficiency, while the proportion of the tertiary industry has a positive effect on the energy efficiency. Economic growth, urbanization and technological progress can effectively promote energy efficiency, energy prices will inhibit the improvement of energy efficiency. 4) dynamic panel model results show that. The lag term of energy efficiency has a significant positive effect on energy efficiency. The effect of other variables on energy efficiency is similar to that of static panel model. The effect of the ratio of the secondary industry and the tertiary industry on the energy efficiency is always negative and positive, but the degree of influence is fluctuating. The effect of other variables on energy efficiency is also variable at each quantile. 6) the results of threshold panel model show that. There is no threshold effect in the model of industrial structure and energy efficiency characterized by the ratio of the secondary industry or the tertiary industry, but there is a single threshold effect between the ratio of non-agricultural industries and the energy efficiency. The development of non-agricultural industries can promote energy efficiency. Finally. Some policy suggestions on how to improve China's energy efficiency are put forward. The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in the following aspects: 1). Using static panel model and dynamic panel model to analyze the linear relationship between industrial structure and energy efficiency. The quantile panel model and threshold panel model are used to analyze the nonlinear relationship between industrial structure and energy efficiency.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F121.3;F206

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