本文關(guān)鍵詞： 省域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展 空間集聚 空間計量　出處：《云南財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：改革開放以來,我國經(jīng)濟處于長期持續(xù)增長,然而經(jīng)濟快速發(fā)展的同時也帶來了區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的不平衡問題,表現(xiàn)在區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展存在較大差異。2015年,我國人均GDP最高最低省份差四倍多,并且人均GDP高的省份集中在東部,低的省份主要位于西部。這種現(xiàn)象的存在能否說明中國省域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平存在較大差異,其變化趨勢是怎樣的?又是否說明中國省域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平在空間上存在集聚效應(yīng)?一個省市區(qū)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展是否會影響到鄰近地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展?影響省域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的主要因素又是什么?這是本文主要研究的問題,同時也是我國經(jīng)濟實現(xiàn)長期均衡穩(wěn)定發(fā)展所必須關(guān)注的問題。首先,本文通過計算2000-2015年中國省域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平的極差、標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差和相對極差,發(fā)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平的絕對差異在不斷增大,而相對極差在2005年之后呈現(xiàn)不斷下降趨勢。同時,從GDP、人口與收入角度采用綜合指標(biāo)對我國21世紀(jì)以來省域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展差異的變化趨勢進行測度與分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)2001年之后,基尼系數(shù)基本呈現(xiàn)穩(wěn)定態(tài)勢;而加權(quán)變異系數(shù)和泰爾指數(shù)從2000-2007年處于相對穩(wěn)定狀態(tài),2007年之后呈現(xiàn)持續(xù)下降的趨勢。由此證明了中國省域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展存在較大差異,但具有不斷縮小的發(fā)展趨勢。其次,通過全局空間自相關(guān)分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)中國省域經(jīng)濟存在正的空間相關(guān)性,說明中國省域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展具有空間依賴性。進行Moran散點圖分析可以看出,絕大多數(shù)省份位于第一三象限,表現(xiàn)正的空間自相關(guān)。同時由中國省域經(jīng)濟的LISA集聚圖可知,中國省域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平低-低集聚的最多,主要集中于西部省份,并以西南為主,形成了經(jīng)濟塌陷區(qū);中國省域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平高-高集聚的區(qū)域并不多,并且主要位于長江三角洲和北京地區(qū)。由此證明了中國省域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平在空間上存在集聚效應(yīng),一個省市區(qū)經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展會影響到鄰近地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展。然后,通過建立空間誤差模型得出產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)指標(biāo)、人力資本指標(biāo)和外商直接投資規(guī)模指標(biāo)的回歸系數(shù)均為正數(shù),與預(yù)期的結(jié)果一致,并通過了5%的顯著性檢驗。由此得出了影響省域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的主要因素是產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、人力資本和外商直接投資。最后,根據(jù)研究成果,提出了促進省域經(jīng)濟協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的合理建議與措施。即促進不發(fā)達省市區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的升級;加大不發(fā)達地區(qū)高素質(zhì)人才培養(yǎng),促進教育交流;促進中西部地區(qū)積極引進外商投資,加大對外貿(mào)易水平。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has been growing continuously for a long time. However, the rapid development of the economy has also brought about the imbalance of regional economic development, which is manifested in the great differences in regional economic development. 2015. The difference between the provinces with the highest and lowest GDP per capita in China is more than four times, and the provinces with high per capita GDP are concentrated in the east. The low provinces are mainly located in the west. Can the existence of this phenomenon indicate that there are great differences in the level of economic development in China's provinces, and what is the trend of its change? Does it mean that there is agglomeration effect in the development level of China's provincial economy? Will the economic development of a province, municipality or municipality affect the economic development of neighbouring areas? What are the main factors that affect the economic development of the province? This is the main research of this paper, but also the long-term balanced and stable development of our economy must pay attention to. First of all. By calculating the extreme deviation, standard deviation and relative extreme difference of China's provincial economic development level from 2000 to 2015, it is found that the absolute difference of economic development level is constantly increasing. The relative range showed a downward trend after 2005. At the same time, from the GDP. From the perspective of population and income, this paper measures and analyzes the variation trend of economic development difference between provinces since 21th century, and finds that after 2001, the Gini coefficient presents a stable trend. The weighted coefficient of variation and the Tyr index are relatively stable from 2000 to 2007 and show a downward trend after 2007, which proves that there are great differences in the development of Chinese provincial economy. Secondly, through the global spatial autocorrelation analysis, we find that there is a positive spatial correlation in China's provincial economy. The analysis of Moran scatter plot shows that the vast majority of provinces are located in the 13th quadrant. The positive spatial autocorrelation. At the same time, from the LISA agglomeration map of the Chinese provincial economy, we can see that the development level of the provincial economy in China is the most, mainly concentrated in the western provinces, and mainly in the southwest. Forming an economic collapse area; There are not many regions with high level of economic development in China, which are mainly located in the Yangtze River Delta and Beijing area, which proves that there is agglomeration effect on the level of economic development in the provincial area of China. The economic development of a province or city will affect the economic development of neighboring areas. Then, through the establishment of spatial error model to obtain the industrial structure indicators. The regression coefficients of human capital index and foreign direct investment scale index are both positive, which is consistent with the expected results. Through the significance test of 5%, the paper concludes that the main factors influencing the development of provincial economy are industrial structure, human capital and foreign direct investment. Finally, according to the research results. The paper puts forward some reasonable suggestions and measures to promote the coordinated development of provincial economy, that is, to promote the upgrading of the industrial structure of underdeveloped provinces and municipalities; To increase the cultivation of high-quality talents in underdeveloped areas and to promote educational exchanges; We will encourage the central and western regions to actively introduce foreign investment and increase the level of foreign trade.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F127

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