本文關(guān)鍵詞：長三角地區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷的就業(yè)效應(yīng)研究　出處：《華東師范大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的變遷是經(jīng)濟增長的基礎(chǔ),同時是勞動力實現(xiàn)就業(yè)的實質(zhì)載體,一個國家或地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟健康發(fā)展需要建立在產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和就業(yè)的協(xié)調(diào)上,從本質(zhì)上來說,是要求資源的合理配置。研究產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷既能夠掌握宏觀經(jīng)濟的趨勢,又可以預(yù)測微觀就業(yè)的狀況,在制定促進就業(yè)的政策上有著重要的指導(dǎo)意義。 如今中國的高速經(jīng)濟增長并沒有帶來就業(yè)的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展,就業(yè)問題不僅表現(xiàn)在勞動力數(shù)量供大于求,還表現(xiàn)在供給和需求結(jié)構(gòu)上的不匹配。不可避免的是,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的升級將帶來更多就業(yè)問題,諸如大學(xué)生就業(yè)難、在東南沿海城市大量農(nóng)民工“返鄉(xiāng)潮”、“用工荒”等。作為全國經(jīng)濟最發(fā)達的地區(qū)之一,長三角地區(qū)對勞動力的需求數(shù)量巨大且范圍廣泛,其產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級改變了勞動力原來的就業(yè)發(fā)展路徑。如果不能夠充分考慮長三角地區(qū)勞動群體的就業(yè)情況,合理調(diào)整和發(fā)展產(chǎn)業(yè),那么將影響長三角地區(qū),甚至全國經(jīng)濟的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。 目前,國內(nèi)外學(xué)者對于產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)對就業(yè)的影響這一領(lǐng)域有著廣泛的研究,但大多數(shù)學(xué)者無論是在理論還是實證上,都是從全國宏觀層面的省級數(shù)據(jù)入手,現(xiàn)階段幾乎沒有國內(nèi)學(xué)者針對區(qū)域進行產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的就業(yè)效應(yīng)研究,而產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的變遷對就業(yè)的影響存在著明顯的地區(qū)差異。因此,本文將著眼于長三角地區(qū),從理論和實證兩方面因地制宜地分析產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的變遷對其就業(yè)的影響。 首先,本文以產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷的就業(yè)效應(yīng)傳統(tǒng)模型和二元經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)模型為理論基礎(chǔ),分析長三角地區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的變遷與現(xiàn)狀,發(fā)現(xiàn)第二和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)偏離度均為負數(shù)且偏離零值越來越遠,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的協(xié)調(diào)性較弱。 然后,通過分析產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響因素,提煉出產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷影響就業(yè)的作用機制；接著在長三角地區(qū)的16個城市數(shù)據(jù)基礎(chǔ)上,建立面板數(shù)據(jù)模型進行實證分析,結(jié)果顯示,第二產(chǎn)業(yè)和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展對長三角地區(qū)的就業(yè)效應(yīng)均為負向,第二產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值占比影響較顯著,第三產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值占比影響較弱,反映了目前長三角地區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的快速發(fā)展與升級給就業(yè)帶來了破壞性的影響。 最后根據(jù)理論與實證的分析結(jié)果,為加強長三角地區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)對就業(yè)的促進作用,因地制宜地從三次產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展、產(chǎn)業(yè)組織、勞動力市場等角度提出若干政策與建議。
[Abstract]:The change of industrial structure is the foundation of economic growth, at the same time is the essential carrier of labor employment, a country or region's economic healthy development needs to be established in the coordination of industrial structure and employment, in essence, is the rational allocation of resources. The changes of requirements of industrial structure can not only grasp the macroeconomic trends, and can predict the micro employment situation, has important guiding significance in formulating policies to promote employment.
Now the high-speed economic growth China does not lead to the coordinated development of employment, the employment problem is not only reflected in the number of labor oversupply, but also does not match the supply and demand structure. Inevitably, the upgrading of industrial structure will lead to more employment problems, such as the difficult employment of college students, in the southeastern coastal city of a large number of migrant workers "the tide", "labor shortage". As one of the most developed areas of the national economy, the demand for labor in the Yangtze River Delta region a large number and wide range, the upgrading of the industrial structure has changed the original labor employment development path. If you are not able to fully consider the employment situation of labor groups in the Yangtze River Delta region, the reasonable adjustment and development of industry, so the influence of the Yangtze River Delta region, and even the sustainable development of the national economy.
At present, domestic and foreign scholars on the impact of industrial structure on employment in this field has been widely investigated, but most of the scholars both in theory and practice, are starting from the national macro level data at the provincial level, at present almost no domestic scholars study on the employment effect of industrial structure in the area, and the transformation of industry the structure of the impact on employment has obvious regional differences. Therefore, this article will focus on the Yangtze River Delta region, according to the analysis of impact of changes in the industrial structure on the employment from two aspects of theory and empirical.
First of all, based on the traditional model of the employment effect of industrial structure change and economic structure of two yuan model as the theoretical basis, analysis of the change and current situation of the Yangtze River Delta region of the industrial structure and employment structure, found to deviate from the employment structure of the second industries and the third industry are all negative and zero deviation more and more far, weak coordination between industrial structure and employment structure.
Then, through the analysis of influence factors of industrial structure and employment structure, refines the mechanism of impact of industrial structure of employment; then the 16 city data base in the Yangtze River Delta region, the establishment of panel data model for empirical analysis. The results show that the development of the second industry and the third industry employment effect of the Yangtze River Delta region was negative second, industrial output value accounted for a significant effect, third industry output value accounted for the impact of weak, reflecting the destructive influences of the current rapid development and upgrading of industrial structure in Yangtze River Delta region to obtain employment.
Finally, according to the theoretical and empirical analysis results, in order to enhance the promoting role of the industrial structure in the Yangtze River Delta region, and put forward some policies and suggestions from the perspective of three industries development, industrial organization and labor market, we should adjust measures to local conditions.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F127;F249.27

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