本文關(guān)鍵詞：人民幣國(guó)際化進(jìn)程中匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的長(zhǎng)短期影響研究　出處：《北京交通大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 人民幣國(guó)際化 匯率 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng) 外商直接投資 進(jìn)出口

【摘要】：隨著我國(guó)人民幣國(guó)際化進(jìn)程的加快,人民幣國(guó)際化日益成為政府和大眾關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)。人民幣在一定范圍內(nèi)已經(jīng)發(fā)揮著國(guó)際貨幣的作用,國(guó)際地位不斷上升。隨著人民幣國(guó)際化的推進(jìn),人民幣匯率的波動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)各個(gè)方面都將產(chǎn)生越來越重要的影響。因此,深入研究人民幣國(guó)際化進(jìn)程中匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的作用機(jī)制和路徑效果,不僅有助于加深理解匯率與中國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的長(zhǎng)短期關(guān)系,也對(duì)有效防范匯率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、保證人民幣幣值穩(wěn)定、避免國(guó)際收支的過度失衡有重要作用,有助于從宏觀層面構(gòu)建一個(gè)促進(jìn)人民幣國(guó)際化穩(wěn)定發(fā)展的良性循環(huán)機(jī)制。本文研究?jī)?nèi)容主要包括以下幾個(gè)方面:首先,基于人民幣國(guó)際化加入SDR邁出人民幣國(guó)際化進(jìn)程實(shí)質(zhì)性步伐的時(shí)代背景下,梳理了國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者研究現(xiàn)狀,對(duì)我國(guó)人民幣國(guó)際化進(jìn)程以及人民幣國(guó)際化進(jìn)程中的匯率變動(dòng)特征進(jìn)行分析;其次,理論分析匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響機(jī)制,本文選擇實(shí)際GDP作為宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的研究指標(biāo),理論分析匯率對(duì)外商直接投資、進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易的影響,進(jìn)而推出匯率變動(dòng)通過外商直接投資、進(jìn)出口對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的長(zhǎng)短期影響機(jī)制;再次,在人民幣國(guó)際化進(jìn)程中匯率變動(dòng)的長(zhǎng)短期趨勢(shì)分析的基礎(chǔ)上,通過向量自回歸模型研究匯率變動(dòng)、外商直接投資、進(jìn)出口以及經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的互動(dòng)關(guān)系,并分析匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的長(zhǎng)期效應(yīng)和短期效應(yīng)。最后,根據(jù)實(shí)證研究結(jié)論以及以往相關(guān)研究,結(jié)合人民幣國(guó)際化這一環(huán)境背景,為我國(guó)的匯率改革提出相應(yīng)政策。通過研究表明:(1)人民幣國(guó)際化過程中匯率的變動(dòng)具有長(zhǎng)期上升的趨勢(shì)性特征。短期內(nèi)人民幣匯率波動(dòng)性較強(qiáng),呈現(xiàn)上升和下降的交替變化,目前人民幣表現(xiàn)出了一定程度的貶值態(tài)勢(shì);(2)人民幣國(guó)際化進(jìn)程中,匯率上升與進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易具有顯著的負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系,但是人民幣升值對(duì)進(jìn)口的影響時(shí)間要短于出口,因此長(zhǎng)期看,人民幣升值可能會(huì)造成凈出口的下降。人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)FDI的影響在短期和長(zhǎng)期具有阻礙作用,但影響不顯著;(3)總體上講,人民幣匯率上升在短期可能會(huì)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)具有一定的正向沖擊作用,但作用并不顯著,長(zhǎng)期看會(huì)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)帶來顯著的負(fù)向作用。本文認(rèn)為在人民幣國(guó)際化進(jìn)程中,在防范人民幣匯兌危機(jī)的基礎(chǔ)上,要更加重視因國(guó)際需求增加帶來的人民幣匯率持續(xù)上升的問題,并制定穩(wěn)定匯率、保持經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)持續(xù)性相關(guān)措施。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of RMB internationalization in China, RMB internationalization has increasingly become the focus of attention of the government and the public. The RMB has played an important role in the international currency in a certain range. With the development of RMB internationalization, the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate will have more and more important influence on all aspects of our economy. Further study on the mechanism and path effect of exchange rate change on economic growth in the process of RMB internationalization is not only helpful to understand the long-term and short-term relationship between the exchange rate and China's macroeconomic growth. It also plays an important role in effectively preventing exchange rate risk, ensuring the stability of RMB currency and avoiding excessive imbalance of international payments. It is helpful to construct a virtuous circle mechanism to promote the RMB internationalization and stable development from the macro level. The research content of this paper mainly includes the following aspects: first of all. Based on the background of RMB internationalization entering SDR, this paper combs the current research situation of scholars at home and abroad under the background of the substantial step of RMB internationalization process. This paper analyzes the process of RMB internationalization in China and the characteristics of exchange rate change in the process of RMB internationalization. Secondly, theoretical analysis of the exchange rate changes on the macroeconomic impact mechanism, the actual GDP as the macroeconomic research indicators, theoretical analysis of the impact of foreign direct investment, import and export trade. Furthermore, the mechanism of long-term and short-term influence of foreign direct investment, import and export on economic growth is put forward. Thirdly, on the basis of long-term and short-term trend analysis of RMB exchange rate change in the process of RMB internationalization, this paper studies the interaction among exchange rate change, foreign direct investment, import and export and economic growth through vector autoregressive model. And analyze the long-term and short-term effects of exchange rate changes on economic growth. Finally, according to empirical research conclusions and previous relevant studies, combined with the background of RMB internationalization. This paper puts forward the corresponding policy for the exchange rate reform of our country. The research shows that the change of exchange rate in the process of RMB internationalization has a trend characteristic of long-term rise, and the volatility of RMB exchange rate is strong in the short term. Taking on the alternately change of rising and decreasing, the RMB is devaluing to a certain extent; In the process of RMB internationalization, the exchange rate rise has a significant negative correlation with import and export trade, but the impact of RMB appreciation on imports is shorter than that on exports, so in the long run. RMB appreciation may result in a decline in net exports. The impact of RMB exchange rate changes on FDI is hindered in the short and long term, but the impact is not significant. Generally speaking, the appreciation of RMB exchange rate may have a positive impact on economic growth in the short term, but the effect is not significant. In the long run, it will bring a significant negative effect on economic growth. This paper argues that in the process of RMB internationalization, it is based on the prevention of RMB exchange crisis. It is necessary to pay more attention to the issue of the RMB exchange rate rising as a result of increased international demand, and formulate measures to stabilize the exchange rate and maintain the sustainability of economic growth.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F124.1

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