本文關(guān)鍵詞：人口老齡化背景下退休沖擊對(duì)居民家庭消費(fèi)的影響研究　出處：《上海社會(huì)科學(xué)院》2017年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 人口老齡化 退休 家庭消費(fèi) 消費(fèi)水平 消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)

【摘要】：我國(guó)自2000年以來(lái)就面臨著人口老齡化這一不可逆轉(zhuǎn)的老年人口逐步增加的趨勢(shì),上世紀(jì)五十年代"嬰兒潮"出生的人口在2010年前后依次進(jìn)入退休年齡,第二波的退休潮帶動(dòng)了老年人口數(shù)量的進(jìn)一步增加,形成了老年人口增長(zhǎng)的高峰。老齡社會(huì)中退休人員的增加微觀上影響的是居民個(gè)體及所在家庭的收入、消費(fèi)、老年心理等,宏觀層面影響的是我國(guó)勞動(dòng)力供給、社會(huì)整體消費(fèi)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)等。而我國(guó)現(xiàn)有的強(qiáng)制退休制度在老齡化加速變化的時(shí)代會(huì)使得退休這一群體人數(shù)越來(lái)越多,現(xiàn)實(shí)的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境中一大問(wèn)題在于經(jīng)濟(jì)新常態(tài)時(shí)期,消費(fèi)需求不足,這部分群體的退休決策通過(guò)對(duì)居民消費(fèi)的動(dòng)態(tài)沖擊影響著社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展與持久穩(wěn)定�；诖�,本文依托中國(guó)家庭動(dòng)態(tài)跟蹤調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)面板數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行混合回歸的方法重點(diǎn)分析了退休對(duì)居民家庭消費(fèi)水平和消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響,研究"退休消費(fèi)困境"這一現(xiàn)象是否真實(shí)的存在在現(xiàn)實(shí)消費(fèi)生活中。并選擇上海作為典型案例城市,根據(jù)調(diào)查問(wèn)卷與質(zhì)性訪談,深入了解上海市退休居民的生活狀況,梳理與詮釋"退休"與老年消費(fèi)行為的現(xiàn)實(shí)相關(guān)性,對(duì)退休老人生活史的梳理再現(xiàn)當(dāng)今社會(huì)退休群體的經(jīng)濟(jì)生活。由于我國(guó)同美國(guó)、日本兩國(guó)一樣面臨人口老齡化背景下"嬰兒潮"一代的退休高峰對(duì)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的沖擊與挑戰(zhàn),我們?cè)侔蜒芯康囊暯菑膰?guó)內(nèi)延伸向國(guó)外,分析美、日兩國(guó)應(yīng)對(duì)居民退休后消費(fèi)變動(dòng)的舉措以及對(duì)我國(guó)的啟示與借鑒。有了理論與實(shí)踐的經(jīng)驗(yàn)與證明后,本文對(duì)于如何有效應(yīng)對(duì)人口老齡化加速和經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型背景下退休給居民所在家庭消費(fèi)水平帶來(lái)的負(fù)性影響以及家庭消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的變化,為擴(kuò)大消費(fèi)需求,增強(qiáng)家庭居民的消費(fèi)信心提出相應(yīng)的思考與建議。本文的主要發(fā)現(xiàn)與結(jié)論如下:第一,退休后居民的主要收入來(lái)源為家庭其他成員供養(yǎng)、勞動(dòng)收入、離退休金養(yǎng)老金三大部分,但是,老年人的主要生活來(lái)源存在著明顯的性別和城市差異。居民退休后消費(fèi)呈現(xiàn)出以下特征:首先,消費(fèi)動(dòng)機(jī)較為理性,消費(fèi)習(xí)慣固化;其次,對(duì)商品或商家提高的服務(wù)價(jià)格敏感度較高;再次,更加追求實(shí)際,特別看重產(chǎn)品的實(shí)用功能;最后,消費(fèi)節(jié)儉,邊際消費(fèi)傾向較低,預(yù)防性儲(chǔ)蓄較高。第二,影響退休后居民所在家庭消費(fèi)的因素主要有居民家庭的消費(fèi)習(xí)慣和消費(fèi)實(shí)力、政府相關(guān)消費(fèi)和稅收政策、居民享有的社會(huì)保障水平、消費(fèi)者權(quán)益維護(hù)程度、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展程度等宏觀因素以及老年消費(fèi)的供給等。退休對(duì)居民消費(fèi)的影響機(jī)制主要體現(xiàn)在直接影響和間接影響兩方面。直接影響在于消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)、消費(fèi)動(dòng)機(jī)、消費(fèi)習(xí)慣、利他性消費(fèi);間接影響在于通過(guò)間接傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制如收入分配、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、社會(huì)保障制度來(lái)影響退休后的消費(fèi)。第三,退休強(qiáng)制制度的沖擊直接導(dǎo)致居民消費(fèi)水平相比退休前下降了 15.7%。在消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響方面,與工作相關(guān)的衣著、郵政通訊交通類支出下降比例分別為25.6%、12.2%,退休對(duì)家庭設(shè)備用品及服務(wù)支出下降了 23.3%,居住類消費(fèi)支出、醫(yī)療保健支出方面分別增加了 31.8%和23.5%,對(duì)教育文娛支出的影響并不顯著。同時(shí),上海作為我國(guó)老齡化程度較高的城市,退休沖擊對(duì)居民消費(fèi)帶來(lái)負(fù)性影響,居民退休后減少了原有家庭消費(fèi)總支出的23.20%,在10%的置信水平上顯著。消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)層面主要體現(xiàn)衣著類下降了 39.3%,家庭設(shè)備用品及服務(wù)支出下降了 48.4%。第四,居民退休后高收入?yún)^(qū)間人數(shù)占比減少,而低收入?yún)^(qū)間相比退休前的比例相應(yīng)增加;和退休前相比,退休后居民每月伙食費(fèi)用占平均月支出總費(fèi)用比重并未發(fā)生較大變化,相比退休前,醫(yī)療類消費(fèi)占平均月總支出費(fèi)用比重在30-40%區(qū)間的人數(shù)增加了 80%;消費(fèi)比重在40%-50%區(qū)間人數(shù)增加了 56%;退休后居民選擇"公共交通"退休居民比例較退休前增長(zhǎng)27%;他們開始更加關(guān)注自身人際交往,不斷提高精神消費(fèi)在總消費(fèi)中的比例。另外,通過(guò)對(duì)上海市已退休居民的四個(gè)典型個(gè)案研究,得出:消費(fèi)行為反哺退休后的日常生活,精神消費(fèi)是拓展個(gè)體興趣的需要,社會(huì)交往是老年消費(fèi)的動(dòng)力。并且,老年消費(fèi)嵌入代際關(guān)系。第五,我國(guó)在延遲退休年齡制度、養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)覆蓋的人群、支付與社保資金融資方式以及發(fā)展老年產(chǎn)業(yè)特別是老年市場(chǎng)細(xì)分、老年產(chǎn)品科技創(chuàng)新、老年產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展政策體系、產(chǎn)學(xué)研結(jié)合、老年產(chǎn)業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)、鼓勵(lì)老年勞動(dòng)力再就業(yè)等方面有許多可向美國(guó)、日本學(xué)習(xí)借鑒的地方,不僅如此,更要在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展模式、經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型、增加經(jīng)濟(jì)活力方面深入思考,如注重實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,加快經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式的轉(zhuǎn)變,提高企業(yè)的自主性與創(chuàng)新能力,進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需。基于以上結(jié)論,我們提出了四點(diǎn)政策建議,分別為:有效轉(zhuǎn)變家庭居民消費(fèi)觀念,完善養(yǎng)老醫(yī)療等社會(huì)保障體系;優(yōu)化供給,改進(jìn)老年消費(fèi)支出構(gòu)成;完善養(yǎng)老服務(wù),科學(xué)開拓老年消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)或發(fā)展老年產(chǎn)業(yè);貫徹執(zhí)行"健康老齡化",改變退休消費(fèi)負(fù)效應(yīng)。
[Abstract]:Since 2000 our country is facing the aging population this irreversible elderly population gradually increasing trend, in 50s the "baby boomer" population in 2010 and entered the retirement age, the second wave of retirements led to the number of elderly population is further increased, the formation of the elderly population growth peak. The increase in the retirement of an aging society is the micro impact on individual and family income, consumption, elderly psychology, the macro level is on the impact of labor supply in China, the whole society consumption, industrial structure and so on. But the existing mandatory retirement accelerated aging in times of change will make the retirement a group of people more and more, a big problem in the realistic economic environment is the economic new normal period, consumption demand is insufficient, this part of the group of residents consumption retirement decisions by animals State the impact of the social and economic development and lasting stability. Based on this, this paper relies on the dynamic China household tracking survey data, focusing on methods for panel data regression analysis of the mixed effect of retirement on household consumption level and consumption structure, the phenomenon of "retirement consumption dilemma" is the true existence of life in reality consumer. And select Shanghai city as a typical case, according to the survey questionnaire and qualitative interviews, in-depth understanding of retired Shanghai city residents living conditions, combing and interpretation of "retirement" and older consumer behavior in reality correlation on the life history of the retired elderly society retirement group combing reproduction because our country with economic life. The United States, Japan faces under the background of population aging baby boomers retirement peak on the social and economic development impact and challenge, we put the research perspective From domestic to foreign countries, analysis of beauty, Japan to residents after retirement consumption change initiatives and the enlightenment and reference. The experience and proof of theory and practice, this article on how to have effect on the aging of the population and economy under the background of transformation to change the negative influence of retired residents of their household consumption the level and family consumption structure, to expand consumer demand, and put forward some thoughts and suggestions corresponding to the enhancement of family consumer confidence. The main findings and conclusions of this paper are as follows: first, the main source of income of residents after retirement for other members of the family support, labor income, pension from three parts, however, a significant difference the sex and the city are main source of life of the elderly residents. After retirement consumption shows the following characteristics: first, a more rational consumption motivation, consumption habits of the curing; The service time, a higher price sensitivity of commodity or business; thirdly, the pursuit of more practical value, especially the practical function of the product; finally, frugal consumption, marginal propensity to consume is low, precautionary savings is high. Second, the influence factors of household consumption after retirement, where the residents are mainly household consumption habits and strength the government, related spending and tax policy, the social security level of residents, maintaining the interests of consumers, the degree of economic development and macroeconomic factors such as the supply of retired elderly consumer. On the consumption impact mechanism is mainly reflected in the direct and indirect influence two aspects. In the consumption structure, directly affect the consumer motivation, consumption habits. Altruistic consumer; is through indirect conduction mechanisms such as income distribution, economic growth, labor productivity, industrial structure indirectly, the social security system to affect retirement After the retirement consumption. Third, the impact of mandatory system directly leads to the consumption level of residents in retirement before falling to 15.7%. in the effect of the consumption structure, work clothes, postal communication transportation expenses decreased respectively 25.6%, 12.2%, down 23.3% on the retirement of household appliances and services spending, residential consumption expenditure, health care spending increased by 31.8% and 23.5%, have no significant effect on education spending on entertainment. At the same time, as China's Shanghai city high degree of aging, retirement impact of negative influence on household consumption, residents retirement decrease the total household consumption expenditures of 23.20%, significant at the 10% confidence level on the level of consumption structure. Mainly clothing fell 39.3%, household appliances and services spending fell fourth 48.4%., residents of retirement income interval number proportion high Reduce, and lower income compared to pre retirement interval increased; compared with before retirement, retired residents monthly food expenses accounted for the proportion of the total cost of the average monthly expenditure has not changed greatly, compared to before retirement, medical consumption accounted for the average monthly expenditure proportion of a 80% increase in the number of 30-40% interval; the proportion of consumption increase 56% in the range of 40%-50% number; retired residents choose to "public transport" retired residents before retirement proportion compared with growth of 27%; they began to pay more attention to the interpersonal communication, and constantly improve the proportion of spiritual consumption in total consumption. In addition, through research, four typical cases of Shanghai city has retired residents that the consumer behavior in daily life feeding after retirement, spiritual consumption is to expand the individual interest, social intercourse is power consumption. And the elderly, the elderly consumer embedded intergenerational relationship in our country. Fifth, delay The retirement age system, pension insurance coverage of the crowd, and the payment of social security funds financing and the development of old industry especially the elderly elderly product market segmentation, technological innovation, combination system, development policy of older industries, the elderly Industry Association, to encourage the elderly labor force and employment have a lot to learn from Japan to the United States, where not only that, but in the mode of economic development, economic restructuring, increase the economic vitality of deep thinking, such as focusing on the development of the real economy, accelerate the transformation of economic development mode, improve the autonomy and innovation ability of the enterprise, to further expand domestic demand. Based on the above conclusions, we put forward four suggestions, respectively: the transformation of family consumption concept of residents, improve pension and medical social security system; optimization of supply, improve the structure of consumption; improve the pension service, open science To expand the consumption market for the elderly or to develop the old industry; to implement the "healthy aging" and to change the negative effect of retirement consumption.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海社會(huì)科學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F126.1

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