本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國能源消費與經(jīng)濟增長、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)關(guān)系研究　出處：《云南財經(jīng)大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

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【摘要】：在當今社會，能源是一個國家經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的基礎(chǔ)。能源消費是否合理關(guān)系到國民經(jīng)濟增長的速度和質(zhì)量，同時也對生態(tài)環(huán)境和人民生活水平產(chǎn)生影響。如今，在經(jīng)濟迅猛發(fā)展的同時，能源問題日益凸顯，，如何降低能耗，提高能源利用效率成為研究的重點。而能源與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展之間有著不可分割的密切關(guān)系，同時產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的不斷調(diào)整變動也影響著能源消費及其消費結(jié)構(gòu)。故本文在已有理論基礎(chǔ)之上，通過理論和實證分析，深入探討我國能源消費與經(jīng)濟增長、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)之間的關(guān)系，從而為我國實現(xiàn)節(jié)能減排，充分利用能源提出合理的政策和建議。全文共包括以下五大章節(jié)。 第一章主要介紹選題背景及研究意義，分析能源消費與經(jīng)濟增長、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)關(guān)系的國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀。通過梳理國內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻，了解該領(lǐng)域的研究進展及趨勢，從而為研究能源消費與經(jīng)濟增長、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的關(guān)系提供思路。 第二章主要是對能源消費與經(jīng)濟增長、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)關(guān)系進行理論分析。在對能源消費進行理論分析的基礎(chǔ)上，對它們之間關(guān)系的理論進行分析，從而為本文研究提供理論支持。 第三章主要是對1978-2012年我國能源消費與經(jīng)濟增長、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的現(xiàn)狀進行描述性統(tǒng)計分析。結(jié)果表明：能源消費和經(jīng)濟增長都呈現(xiàn)出上升趨勢；能源消費彈性系數(shù)降到1以下，能源利用效率較高，能源消費強度也在不斷下降；改革開放以來我國能源消費結(jié)構(gòu)呈現(xiàn)出不同的演變趨勢，總的來看能源消費結(jié)構(gòu)趨于合理，但煤炭依舊是主要的消費能源；產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)有了明顯變化，第一產(chǎn)業(yè)比重在逐漸下降，第三產(chǎn)業(yè)比重不斷增加，但第二產(chǎn)業(yè)的比重仍然過高，經(jīng)濟的增長主要是依靠能源消費的增加。 第四章主要是通過建立計量模型對我國能源消費、經(jīng)濟增長、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的關(guān)系進行實證分析。首先，建立包括經(jīng)濟增長、能源消費、資本投入和勞動力在內(nèi)的多變量生產(chǎn)函數(shù)模型。結(jié)果顯示：它們之間存在協(xié)整關(guān)系，資本投入對經(jīng)濟增長的影響程度最大，能源消費次之；煤炭、石油和可再生能源消費和經(jīng)濟增長有著長期穩(wěn)定的關(guān)系，而天然氣與經(jīng)濟增長之間并沒有協(xié)整關(guān)系。其次，研究了能源消費與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的關(guān)系，并考察了不同時期下產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動對能源消費的影響。發(fā)現(xiàn)第二產(chǎn)業(yè)的能源消費彈性最大，即對能源的需求最大，第三產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值的增加會減弱對能源消費的需求；同時通過因素分解方法對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動對能源強度的影響進行分析，得出我國能源消費強度的下降主要來自于各產(chǎn)業(yè)能源利用效率的提高。最后基于VAR模型，利用脈沖響應函數(shù)和方差分解分析對能源消費、經(jīng)濟增長、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動三者之間的動態(tài)關(guān)系進行研究。結(jié)果顯示：經(jīng)濟增長對能源消費、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動存在正向的長期影響，能源消費也對經(jīng)濟增長、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動具有正向的長期影響，而產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動在長期來看會減弱對能源消費需求，而有利于經(jīng)濟的增長。 最后在上述研究的基礎(chǔ)上，得出相關(guān)結(jié)論并提出政策建議：加快轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟增長方式，積極調(diào)整優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)；改善能源消費結(jié)構(gòu)，提高能源利用效率；完善政策機制，提高節(jié)能意識。
[Abstract]:In today's society, energy is the foundation of a country's economic development. Energy consumption is related to the speed and quality of economic growth, but also the impact on the ecological environment and the level of people's life. Nowadays, with the rapid development of economy at the same time, the energy issue has become increasingly prominent, how to reduce energy consumption, improve energy efficiency become the focus of the study. And between energy and economic development have a close relationship, and constantly adjust the industrial structure change also affects the energy consumption and consumption structure. Based on the existing theory, through theoretical and empirical analysis, in-depth study of China's energy consumption and economic growth, the relationship between the industrial structure thus, for the realization of China's energy saving and emission reduction, and make full use of energy policy and put forward reasonable suggestions. The thesis consists of the following five chapters.
The first chapter mainly introduces the background and significance of the research, analysis of energy consumption and economic growth, the relationship between industrial structure research status at home and abroad. Through summarizing the relevant literature, understand the research progress and trends in the field, so as to study the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, industrial structure to provide ideas.
The second chapter mainly analyzes the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth and industrial structure. Based on the theoretical analysis of energy consumption, it analyzes the theory of their relationship, so as to provide theoretical support for this research.
The third chapter is mainly on the 1978-2012 of China's energy consumption and economic growth, the descriptive statistical analysis of the status of the industrial structure. The results show that the energy consumption and economic growth are showing a rising trend; energy consumption elasticity coefficient below 1, higher energy efficiency, energy consumption intensity has been declining since the reform and opening up; China's energy consumption structure shows different trends in the evolution of overall energy consumption structure tends to be reasonable, but the coal is still the main energy consumption; the industrial structure has been changed, a gradual decline in the proportion of the first industry, the third industry proportion is increasing, but the proportion of the second industry is still too high, economic growth mainly depends on the increase of energy consumption.
The fourth chapter is mainly through the establishment of measurement model of China's energy consumption, economic growth, empirical analysis of the relationship between the industrial structure. Firstly, including the establishment of economic growth, energy consumption, multi variable production function model, capital and labor. The results show that there is cointegration relationship between them, the greatest impact on the degree of economic capital investment the growth of energy consumption, time; coal, oil and renewable energy consumption and economic growth has a long-term stable relationship, and there is no cointegration relationship between natural gas and economic growth. Secondly, study the relationship between energy consumption and industrial structure, and the effects of industrial structure change under different impact on energy consumption second. Industrial energy consumption elasticity is the biggest, the maximum demand for energy, increase the output of the third industry will weaken the energy consumption demand; at the same time through Prime decomposition method to analyze the impact of industrial structure on energy intensity, the decrease of energy consumption intensity in China mainly from the industrial energy efficiency. Finally, based on the VAR model, using pulse decomposition analysis of energy consumption and economic growth response function and the variance of the change of industrial structure of the dynamic relationship between the three study. The results showed that economic growth of energy consumption, there is a long-term positive effect on the change of industrial structure, energy consumption on economic growth, has a long-term positive effect on the change of industrial structure, and industrial structure change in the long term will weaken consumer demand for energy, which is conducive to economic growth.
Finally, based on the above research, we draw relevant conclusions and put forward policy recommendations: accelerate the transformation of the mode of economic growth, actively adjust and optimize the industrial structure, improve the energy consumption structure, improve the efficiency of energy utilization, improve the policy mechanism and raise the awareness of energy saving.

【學位授予單位】：云南財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F124;F426.2;F121.3

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