本文關鍵詞：湖南省居民收入與消費關系的實證研究　出處：《湖南師范大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 收入 消費 協(xié)整檢驗 誤差修正模型 向量自回歸模型

【摘要】：消費既是再生產過程的終點,也是下一個再生產的起點,居于承前啟后的關鍵地位,起著經濟循環(huán)的先導作用,是拉動經濟增長的根本動力。消費在經濟體制改革的進程中,影響和制約著國民經濟的持續(xù)、健康和穩(wěn)定發(fā)展。自凱恩斯絕對收入消費理論建立以來,經濟學家針對不同的重點從多種角度深入研究了消費問題,創(chuàng)立了一些學說,并為實際工作提供了理論指導。有效需求不足是阻礙國民經濟持續(xù)發(fā)展的重要因素,直接影響全國戰(zhàn)略目標的實施。因此通過對收入與消費關系進行實證研究來探尋刺激消費和提高消費率的有效途徑,對于政府開辟消費市場,制定消費政策,推進國民經濟持續(xù)、健康與穩(wěn)定發(fā)展和保證宏觀經濟的安全運作具有重大的理論和現(xiàn)實意義。 本文以國內外消費函數(shù)模型為研究基礎,運用計量經濟學的方法,實證分析了湖南省城鎮(zhèn)居民收入與消費的關系以及湖南省城鄉(xiāng)居民收入差距對居民消費的影響。第一個實證采用湖南省城鎮(zhèn)居民1978-2012年的數(shù)據,利用協(xié)整檢驗和誤差修正模型等理論,對湖南省城鎮(zhèn)居民家庭可支配收入和城鎮(zhèn)居民家庭平均全年消費支出間的關系進行了協(xié)整分析,并建立了誤差修正模型。研究結果表明：城鎮(zhèn)居民家庭人均可支配收入與城鎮(zhèn)家庭平均每年消費支出之間存在短期動態(tài)、長期均衡的協(xié)整關系,居民的收入對消費有重大影響。第二個實證用向量自回歸模型分析了1980-2012年湖南省城鄉(xiāng)居民收入差距對消費差別的影響。研究結果表明：收入差距對消費差別具有顯著而較長期的影響,兩者之間有明顯的負相關關系,即收入差距的擴大是致使城鄉(xiāng)居民消費傾向不斷下降、消費需求增長乏力的重要原因。要擴大居民的內需,重點在于提升城鄉(xiāng)居民的消費能力,解決消費需求不足的現(xiàn)狀,使國內消費成為支撐經濟增長的內生動力。為了促進居民消費的增長,應當努力促進居民的收入增長和縮小收入差距。最后就此提出一些政策建議。
[Abstract]:Consumption is not only the end of the reproduction process, but also the starting point of the next reproduction. It plays a key role in connecting the past with the future, and plays a leading role in the economic cycle. Consumption affects and restricts the sustained, healthy and stable development of the national economy in the process of economic system reform. Since the establishment of Keynesian absolute income consumption theory. Economists have studied the problem of consumption from a variety of angles in view of different emphases, and have created some theories. It also provides theoretical guidance for practical work. Insufficient effective demand is an important factor hindering the sustainable development of national economy. Direct impact on the implementation of national strategic objectives. Therefore through empirical research on the relationship between income and consumption to explore effective ways to stimulate consumption and improve the consumption rate for the government to open up consumer markets and formulate consumption policies. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to promote the sustained, healthy and stable development of the national economy and to ensure the safe operation of the macro economy. Based on the consumption function model at home and abroad, this paper uses econometric methods. Empirical analysis of the relationship between urban residents' income and consumption in Hunan Province, as well as the income gap between urban and rural residents of Hunan Province, the impact of residential consumption. The first empirical analysis of Hunan Province urban residents 1978-2012 data. Based on the theory of cointegration test and error correction model, this paper analyzes the relationship between the disposable income of urban households and the average annual consumption expenditure of urban households in Hunan Province. The results show that there is a short-term dynamic and long-term equilibrium cointegration relationship between the per capita disposable income of urban households and the average annual consumption expenditure of urban households. The second empirical study uses vector autoregressive model to analyze the effect of income gap between urban and rural residents on consumption difference in Hunan Province from 1980 to 2012. The results show that:. Income gap has a significant and long-term impact on consumption differences. There is an obvious negative correlation between the two, that is, the widening of income gap is the main reason that leads to the decline of consumption tendency of urban and rural residents, the sluggish growth of consumption demand, and the expansion of the residents' domestic demand. The key point is to improve the consumption ability of urban and rural residents, solve the current situation of insufficient consumption demand, make domestic consumption become the endogenous driving force to support economic growth, in order to promote the growth of household consumption. Efforts should be made to promote income growth and narrow the income gap. Finally, some policy suggestions are put forward.
【學位授予單位】：湖南師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F124.7;F126.1

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本文編號：1387401