發(fā)布時間：2018-01-03 11:32

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：上海市產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整與住房價格變動的理論和實證研究　出處：《華東師范大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 住房價格 房地產(chǎn)市場 產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu) 勞動力流動 上海市

【摘要】：作為我國城鎮(zhèn)化水平和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平最高的城市之一,上海市一直秉持著"海納百川,開明睿智"的開放包容的城市精神。但上海市持續(xù)飆漲的房價對城市的人力資源供給和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化升級都造成了一定的阻礙。另外,上海市目前的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)狀況和調(diào)整優(yōu)化的速度距規(guī)劃的目標(biāo)都尚有一定距離。那么上海市產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整與住房價格的關(guān)系是什么?高房價的背后有多少是產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化升級的因素?房價過高對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整和優(yōu)化會產(chǎn)生何種程度的影響?有鑒于此,本文綜合運用文獻(xiàn)研究、理論研究和實證研究方法,對上海市產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整與住房價格變動的相互關(guān)系進(jìn)行了探討。在明晰產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整和測度工具及住宅定價理論的基礎(chǔ)上,本文分別對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整與住房價格變動的雙向影響機制進(jìn)行分析。之后,對上海市的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)狀況和住房市場情況進(jìn)行了分析。實證部分采用多元線性回歸模型對上海市整體情況進(jìn)行估計,之后選取三個代表性區(qū)域——徐匯區(qū)、寶山區(qū)和奉賢區(qū),分別代表中心城區(qū)、近郊區(qū)和遠(yuǎn)郊區(qū)進(jìn)行實證分析。分別對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的合理化和高級化與住房價格的雙向影響關(guān)系以及住房價格對三次產(chǎn)業(yè)從業(yè)人員及產(chǎn)出的影響進(jìn)行了研究。研究結(jié)果表明,就上海市整體而言,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的合理化和高級化均對住房價格上漲有顯著的推動作用;住房價格在一定范圍內(nèi)的上漲也會促使產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)趨向合理化和高級化,但房價過高會顯著減弱其對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整優(yōu)化的促進(jìn)作用。住房價格上漲對第一和第二產(chǎn)業(yè)具有擠出效應(yīng),但能帶動第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展。具體到區(qū)域?qū)用?中心城區(qū)住房價格與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)合理化之間并無顯著的相互影響,但產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的高級化與房價之間存在相互推升作用。產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的合理化能顯著地推動遠(yuǎn)郊區(qū)住房價格的上漲,但遠(yuǎn)郊區(qū)房價上漲對當(dāng)?shù)氐漠a(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)高級化程度并無顯著影響。近郊區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的合理化和高級化與住房價格之間存在顯著的相互促進(jìn)作用。另外,人力資源是推動產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整優(yōu)化的重要力量。最后根據(jù)研究結(jié)論提出針對性的政策建議。決策者制定政策尤其是房價調(diào)控政策時,應(yīng)將產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)因素納入考量范圍。一個地區(qū)的住房價格要與其經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平及產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)相適應(yīng)。應(yīng)正確看待產(chǎn)業(yè)優(yōu)化升級所帶來的房價上漲的壓力,并采取住房保障等措施有針對性地解決不同產(chǎn)業(yè)從業(yè)人員的住房問題。中心城區(qū)要密切監(jiān)控房價波動,嚴(yán)控房地產(chǎn)泡沫;近郊區(qū)要注意產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整優(yōu)化與住房價格之間的平衡;遠(yuǎn)郊區(qū)除控制房價漲幅,更要大力發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì),增加居民收入。要制定城市內(nèi)部差異化發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略,合理引導(dǎo)城市的產(chǎn)業(yè)梯度轉(zhuǎn)移和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化升級,促進(jìn)城市產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和住房市場的良性互動發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:As one of the city of China's urbanization level and the highest level of economic development, Shanghai city has always been the principle of "all rivers run into sea, enlightened wisdom" open and inclusive spirit of the city. But the upgrade and optimization of Shanghai city continued soaring home prices on the city's supply of human resources and industrial structure have caused some obstacles. In addition, the city of Shanghai the current situation of industrial structure adjustment and optimization speed from the planning objectives are still some distance. So what is the relationship between the adjustment of industrial structure in Shanghai city and the housing price? How much is behind the high prices of the upgrading of the industrial structure optimization factors? High prices to adjust and optimize the industrial structure will affect the extent to which this? This paper uses literature research, theoretical research and empirical research methods, the relationship between Shanghai city industrial structure adjustment and the housing price changes are discussed in. The definition of industrial structure adjustment and measurement tools and residential pricing theory, this paper carries on the analysis to the mutual influence mechanism of industrial structure adjustment and the housing price changes. After that, Shanghai city on the situation of the industrial structure and the housing market conditions are analyzed. The empirical part uses the multiple linear regression model of the overall situation of Shanghai city was estimated. After selecting three representative regions of Xuhui District, Baoshan District and Fengxian District, representing the city center, the empirical analysis in suburban areas and outer suburbs respectively. Bidirectional effects of rationalization of industrial structure and upgrade and housing prices and housing prices to three industrial workers and output were studied. The research results it shows that Shanghai city as a whole, the rationalization of the industrial structure and level have a significant role in promoting the housing prices of housing; In a context of rising prices will also promote industrial structure more reasonable and advanced, but high prices will significantly weaken the adjustment and optimization of industrial structure promotion. Housing prices has a crowding out effect on the first and the second industry, but to promote the development of the third industry. Specific to the regional level, between the city center housing the price and the rationalization of industrial structure does not significantly affect each other, but there is interaction between the advanced role in pushing up prices and industrial structure. The rationalization of the industrial structure can significantly promote the outer suburbs of the housing prices, but prices rose significantly influence on suburb industrial structure level is not significant between local. To promote the interaction between industrial structure rationalization and high-class suburban areas with housing prices. In addition, human resources is an important force to promote the optimization of industrial structure adjustment According to the research conclusion. Finally put forward the corresponding policy recommendations. Decision makers especially the price control policy, industrial structure factors should be considered. Compatible with the level of economic development and industrial structure to an area of housing prices should be a correct view of optimization caused by industrial upgrading and upward pressure on prices. Take the housing security measures targeted to solve the housing problems of employees of different industries. The city center should closely monitor price fluctuations, strictly controlling the real estate bubble; suburban areas should pay attention to adjusting the industrial structure optimization and housing price balance; suburban areas in addition to control prices increase, but also to develop the economy and increase the income of residents to formulate the internal differences. City development strategy, reasonable guide industrial gradient transfer and upgrading of the industrial structure of the city, promote the city industrial structure and residential housing The sound and interactive development of the field.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F121.3;F299.23

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