本文關(guān)鍵詞：江蘇省經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的生態(tài)效率與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)研究　出處：《東北大學(xué)》2014年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu) 生態(tài)足跡 生態(tài)效率 生產(chǎn)函數(shù) “脫鉤”分析

【摘要】：工業(yè)對(duì)江蘇省經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展的支撐與拉動(dòng)作用十分突出。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的加速發(fā)展,工業(yè)在全省經(jīng)濟(jì)中的主體地位不斷提升。但是,江蘇省傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè)占很大比重,加上傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè)資源能源消耗水平高,產(chǎn)品附加值低,施加于環(huán)境的危害相對(duì)嚴(yán)重。國(guó)家“十二五”規(guī)劃中明確提出了構(gòu)建“節(jié)約型社會(huì)”的目標(biāo),“節(jié)約型社會(huì)”的根本在于盡可能地合理利用自然資源,以最少的資源消耗獲得最大的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益和社會(huì)效益。鑒于此,江蘇省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)需要進(jìn)行調(diào)整,以提高資源利用效率,轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方式的發(fā)展目標(biāo)。本研究在分析生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)效率在國(guó)內(nèi)外應(yīng)用實(shí)踐的基礎(chǔ)上,圍繞生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)效率的基本內(nèi)涵,研究其與相關(guān)理論的關(guān)系及在實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)和物質(zhì)消耗減量目標(biāo)中的橋梁作用,及其與實(shí)現(xiàn)江蘇省產(chǎn)業(yè)優(yōu)化升級(jí)和可持續(xù)發(fā)展的內(nèi)在聯(lián)系,提出了基于生態(tài)效率最優(yōu)化以及經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)同環(huán)境負(fù)荷的“脫鉤”分析雙重指標(biāo),對(duì)江蘇省業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行優(yōu)化調(diào)整。首先,本文基于生態(tài)足跡基本理論、資源消費(fèi)種類、土地占用類型以及產(chǎn)業(yè)分類等構(gòu)建產(chǎn)業(yè)生態(tài)足跡計(jì)算模型以及居民生活能耗足跡模型；基于產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和產(chǎn)業(yè)足跡模型建立產(chǎn)業(yè)生態(tài)效率計(jì)算模型(足跡強(qiáng)度模型)、環(huán)境載荷同經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的“脫鉤”分析模型以及資源占用的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)分解模型,用以度量分析產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展對(duì)資源效率利用情況、環(huán)境負(fù)荷或資源消耗與GDP的相對(duì)“脫鉤”關(guān)系、經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模以及產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和產(chǎn)業(yè)足跡強(qiáng)度分別在不同時(shí)期對(duì)總足跡變化影響的程度、特點(diǎn)及規(guī)律。其次,基于新古典經(jīng)濟(jì)理論推導(dǎo)出三次產(chǎn)業(yè)的生產(chǎn)函數(shù)模型,建立新增固定資產(chǎn)投資占各產(chǎn)業(yè)GDP比例的回歸方程,同時(shí)結(jié)合江蘇省“十二五”就業(yè)人口規(guī)劃給出了GDP增長(zhǎng)率預(yù)測(cè)方法,用以對(duì)江蘇省2011～2015年產(chǎn)業(yè)GDP增長(zhǎng)的預(yù)測(cè)。然后,以產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、足跡模型、生態(tài)效率模型為基礎(chǔ),結(jié)合一般線性規(guī)劃模型建立以生態(tài)效率最大為目標(biāo)的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化模型。最后,應(yīng)用以上研究方法和江蘇省歷年統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)江蘇省2000～2010年的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)以及生態(tài)利用效率進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)研究,找出存在的問題,并應(yīng)用相關(guān)模型及算法對(duì)江蘇省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)以及生態(tài)效率進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)分析并優(yōu)化。研究結(jié)果表明,2000～2010年間,江蘇省第三產(chǎn)業(yè)生態(tài)效率最高,且呈逐年增大趨勢(shì),最高達(dá)到了5.87萬元／公頃；其次是GDP比重最高的第二產(chǎn)業(yè),呈逐年增大趨勢(shì),但增幅很�。簧鷳B(tài)效率最低的是第一產(chǎn)業(yè),近10年來變化幅度不大,維持在0.4萬元／公頃左右。根據(jù)資源占用的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)分解模型對(duì)生態(tài)足跡進(jìn)行分解結(jié)果看,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是導(dǎo)致足跡增加的因素,年均變化量為0.1816億公頃,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和足跡強(qiáng)度總體來說是對(duì)足跡增長(zhǎng)起抑制作用,年均變化量分別為-0.0466億公頃和-0.0205億公頃。通過對(duì)江蘇省2001～2010年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)同環(huán)境負(fù)荷的“脫鉤”分析可以看出,江蘇省生態(tài)足跡強(qiáng)度年均下降率為0.042,單位GDP環(huán)境負(fù)荷或資源消耗年下降率的臨界值平均為0.117,后者是前者的3倍,說明快速的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展必定會(huì)加快環(huán)境負(fù)荷或資源消耗的快速上升,環(huán)境負(fù)荷與GDP增長(zhǎng)未“脫鉤”,所以必須進(jìn)行產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整,既要滿足一定的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),同時(shí)降低環(huán)境負(fù)荷或資源消耗的上升速度。基于以上分析,以歷史數(shù)據(jù)以及相關(guān)計(jì)算結(jié)果為基礎(chǔ)對(duì)江蘇省2011～2015年生態(tài)效率及GDP增長(zhǎng)率進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),分別在生態(tài)效率不變以及生態(tài)效率變化兩種情況下對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行優(yōu)化,得出三大產(chǎn)業(yè)比重分別為0.4,0.58,0.38,GDP年均增量率為9.88%,滿足江蘇省“十二五”規(guī)劃的GDP增長(zhǎng)10%的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。在最優(yōu)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)條件下,根據(jù)“脫鉤”分析判斷標(biāo)準(zhǔn)得出第一產(chǎn)業(yè)基本實(shí)現(xiàn)了環(huán)境負(fù)荷同經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的“脫鉤”,而二、三產(chǎn)業(yè)及綜合產(chǎn)業(yè)環(huán)境負(fù)荷仍未與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)“脫鉤”。
[Abstract]:The support and the pulling effect of industry on the economic and social development in Jiangsu province is very prominent. With the acceleration of economic development, industrial dominant position in the economy has been increasing. However, the traditional industry of Jiangsu province accounted for a large proportion, and the traditional industry of resource and energy consumption level is high, products with low added value, applied to the relative environmental hazards serious. National "12th Five-Year" plan clearly put forward to build a "conservation oriented society", "basic economic society" is to use natural resources reasonably and maximize the economic benefits and social benefits with minimal resource consumption. In view of this, Jiangsu Province, the industrial structure needs to be adjusted, in order to improve the efficiency of resource use development goals, change the mode of economic growth. This research is based on the analysis of ecological and economic efficiency of application at home and abroad, the basic focus on eco efficiency Han, study the relationship with related theory and Bridge in the goal of economic growth and material consumption reduction target in effect, and realize the internal relations between the optimization of industrial upgrading and sustainable development in Jiangsu Province, based on eco efficiency optimization and economic growth with environmental load of "decoupling" analysis of double index, optimize the Jiangsu province industry structure. Firstly, the basic theory of Ecological Footprint Based on resource consumption type, construction industry of ecological footprint model and residential energy consumption footprint model of land type and industry classification; industrial structure and the establishment of Industrial Ecological Footprint Model Based on efficiency calculation model (footprint intensity model), environmental load with economic growth "decoupling" analysis model and resource occupation industrial structure decomposition model is used to measure analysis on the industrial development of resources. The rate of utilization is relatively "decoupling" relationship between resource consumption and environmental load or GDP, economic scale and industrial structure and industrial footprint intensity respectively in the different stages of the total footprint change degree, characteristics and rules. Secondly, derivation of the new classical economic theory from three industrial production function model based on the regression equation of new investment in fixed assets accounted for the proportion of GDP industry, combined with Jiangsu province "12th Five-Year" employment planning prediction method was presented for the growth rate of GDP, forecast in Jiangsu province 2011~2015 years GDP industry growth. Then, with the industrial structure, the ecological footprint model, efficiency model, combined with the general linear programming model and optimization model is established the industrial structure to maximize the ecological efficiency. Finally, using the above research methods and statistics data of Jiangsu Province, the industrial structure of Jiangsu province for 2000~2010 years And the ecological efficiency were studied, find out the existing problems, and application related model and algorithm for forecast analysis and optimization of the industrial structure of Jiangsu province and ecological efficiency. The results show that 2000 to 2010 years, the ecological efficiency of the third industry in Jiangsu province is the highest, and the increasing trend, the highest reached 58 thousand and 700 yuan / ha the second is GDP; the highest proportion of the second industry, increasing trend, but the increase is small; the lowest ecological efficiency is the first industry, little change in the past 10 years, maintained at 4 thousand yuan / hm2. According to industry structure resource decomposition model of ecological footprint decomposition results, economic growth is the result of the factors of footprint increased to 18 million 160 thousand hectares, annual variation, industrial structure and footprint intensity is generally inhibitory effect on the growth of annual change footprint, respectively -0.04 6 billion 600 million hectares and -0.0205 million hectares. Based on the economic growth of Jiangsu province from 2001 to 2010 with the environmental load of "decoupling" analysis shows that the ecological footprint of Jiangsu Province in the strength of an average annual decline rate of 0.042, the critical value of decreasing rate of environmental load or resource consumption per unit of GDP years with an average of 0.117, which is 3 times the former, the fast the economic development will accelerate the rapid rise of the environmental load or resource consumption, environmental load and GDP growth is not "decoupling", so we must adjust the industrial structure, not only to meet certain economic growth, while reducing environmental load and resource consumption rising speed. Based on the above analysis, based on historical data and related calculation results based on the eco efficiency of Jiangsu province from 2011 to 2015 and GDP growth rate forecast, the industrial structure optimization in two kinds of the same changes in the ecological efficiency and ecological efficiency respectively. The proportion of the three industries, respectively 0.4,0.58,0.38, GDP average annual incremental rate of 9.88%, to meet in 12th Five-Year in Jiangsu province "planning 10% GDP growth standards. In the optimal industrial structure condition, according to the" decoupling "analysis and judgment criteria to obtain the basic realization of the first industry environmental load with economic growth, and the two" decoupling "three, industry and comprehensive industry environment and economic growth has not yet load decoupling.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F127

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