本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)關(guān)系研究　出處：《天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：對(duì)外貿(mào)易與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系一直是經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研究領(lǐng)域的常青話題,國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者曾從多個(gè)角度、多種方法、利用不同的數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)這一問(wèn)題進(jìn)行過(guò)深入的理論探討,實(shí)證分析結(jié)果也是多種多樣。改革開(kāi)放到現(xiàn)在,我國(guó)的對(duì)外貿(mào)易不斷蓬勃發(fā)展,增長(zhǎng)速度迅猛,規(guī)模也在不斷的擴(kuò)大。對(duì)外貿(mào)易的迅速發(fā)展對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)起到了重要的推動(dòng)作用。但是隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)的波動(dòng),對(duì)外貿(mào)易也在不斷的發(fā)生變化。2013年全年,我國(guó)進(jìn)出口總額為41603.31億美元,國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值83492.28億美元,分別列世界第一位和第二位。近年來(lái),我國(guó)進(jìn)出口和GDP同步增長(zhǎng),具有明顯相關(guān)性。但具體聯(lián)系路徑仍值得研究,以摸清對(duì)外貿(mào)易對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的真實(shí)作用。因此,研究這一關(guān)系可以為我國(guó)制定更好的外貿(mào)政策提供借鑒�；趧P恩斯宏觀國(guó)民收入理論模型,出口作為總需求的一部分,是對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)循環(huán)流量的注入,具有促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)作用；而進(jìn)口則是對(duì)外需求的支出,是國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)循環(huán)的一個(gè)漏出項(xiàng),具有導(dǎo)致國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)收縮的作用。然而,實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行中的進(jìn)口是豐富而多樣化的,它僅僅是一個(gè)漏出項(xiàng)嗎?另一方面,出口所涉及的產(chǎn)業(yè)及產(chǎn)品也是豐富而多樣化的,各自對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響會(huì)一樣嗎?源于這樣的思考和疑問(wèn),本文對(duì)我國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)關(guān)系的考察,將分別探討出口和進(jìn)口與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系。本文首先通過(guò)對(duì)貿(mào)易與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)關(guān)系理論的梳理,分析了出口、進(jìn)口在促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)中的不同路徑。其次,從進(jìn)出口整體發(fā)展、進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易依存度,進(jìn)出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)分析了我國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易現(xiàn)狀以及對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響。最后,通過(guò)ADF檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整分析等方法,對(duì)中國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了實(shí)證檢驗(yàn),不僅量化分析了出口總額、進(jìn)口總額變動(dòng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響,還從不同商品結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)一步細(xì)化分析了進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響�；诒疚募�(xì)化到商品結(jié)構(gòu)的分析,得出的結(jié)論是：出口貿(mào)易和進(jìn)口貿(mào)易都能促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)；其中出口方面,無(wú)論資源密集型產(chǎn)品、勞動(dòng)密集型產(chǎn)品,還是資本技術(shù)密集型產(chǎn)品的出口貿(mào)易都與我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)存在正相關(guān)關(guān)系；在進(jìn)口方面,中間品、消費(fèi)品的進(jìn)口貿(mào)易可以在一定程度上促進(jìn)我國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),而資本品的進(jìn)口則會(huì)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生抑制性影響。論文最后,基于理論與實(shí)證分析的結(jié)論,提出政策建議,即不僅要看到出口貿(mào)易對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的拉動(dòng)作用,而且更應(yīng)注重進(jìn)口貿(mào)易對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的不同影響；通過(guò)不斷優(yōu)化進(jìn)出口商品結(jié)構(gòu),實(shí)現(xiàn)進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易的平衡發(fā)展,為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)提供穩(wěn)定持久的動(dòng)力。
[Abstract]:The relationship between foreign trade and economic growth has been evergreen topics in the field of economics, domestic and foreign scholars have been from various angles, a variety of methods, using different data on this issue conducted in-depth theoretical study, empirical analysis of the results is varied. The reform and opening up to now, China's foreign trade continued to flourish. Rapid growth rate, scale is expanding. The rapid development of foreign trade has played an important role in promoting China's economic growth. But with economic fluctuations, foreign trade has been changed to.2013 year, China's import and export amounted to $4 trillion and 160 billion 331 million, gross domestic product of $8 trillion and 349 billion 228 million respectively, the first and second in the world. In recent years, China's import and export and GDP synchronous growth, with significant correlation. But the specific contact path is still worth studying, to find out the foreign trade The real economic growth. Therefore, to provide some reference for the research of this relationship can develop better for our country's foreign trade policy. Keynes macro theoretical model based on the national income, exports as a proportion of total demand, is injected into the circulation flow of the economy, with the promotion of economic growth; while imports is the external demand of spending that is a leakage of circulation of the national economy, has led to economic contraction. However, the import of the actual operation of the economy is rich and diverse, it is merely a leakage term? On the other hand, industry and export of products involved is rich and diverse, their impact on economic growth will the same? From thoughts and questions like this, this paper studies the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth in China, will explore the relationship of import and export and economic growth. This paper firstly The theory of the relationship between trade and economic growth analysis, analysis of the export, import in the promotion of different path of economic growth. Secondly, from the overall development of import and export, import and export trade dependence, import and export commodity structure analysis of the current situation of China's foreign trade and the impact on economic growth. Finally, through the ADF test, cointegration analysis and other methods, to analyze the relationship of foreign trade and economic growth China, not only the quantitative analysis of the total exports, total imports in the impact on economic growth, but also from different commodity structure to further refine the analysis of the import and export trade on economic growth. This paper analysis to refine commodity structure based on the conclusion is that the export and import trade can promote economic growth; the export, regardless of resources intensive products, labor-intensive products, capital and technology intensive products The export trade has a positive correlation with the economic growth in China; in the intermediate goods imports, imports of consumer goods, trade can promote the economic growth of our country to a certain extent, while imports of capital goods will have inhibitory effect on economic growth. Finally, based on theoretical and empirical analysis conclusion and put forward policy recommendations, which should not only see the export trade on economic growth, but also should pay more attention to the different effects of import trade on economic growth; through continuous optimization of the structure of import and export commodities, to achieve a balanced development of import and export trade, provide a stable and lasting power for economic growth.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F752;F124.1

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