本文關(guān)鍵詞：中原經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)縣域交通優(yōu)勢(shì)度與區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)空間耦合，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

關(guān)。EOF分析的第一模態(tài)反映出1988-2012年以來，中原經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長總體上沿京廣線的東西兩側(cè)反相分布，京廣線以西增長快于京廣線以東，第一模態(tài)對(duì)應(yīng)的時(shí)間系數(shù)，表現(xiàn)出明顯的年際特征，東、西兩部分地區(qū)具有近10年的增長循環(huán)周期。第二模態(tài)反映了中原經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的局部區(qū)域的年際異常特征，，呈現(xiàn)西南、東北部反相分布空間格局，相應(yīng)時(shí)間系數(shù)年際波動(dòng)更明顯。

（2）GWR分析發(fā)現(xiàn)：1988-2012年年間，影響中原經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)人均GDP變化因素的重要程度在空間上存在不同。農(nóng)民人均純收入對(duì)中原經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響最大，呈正相關(guān)關(guān)系。資源稟賦是第二大影響因素，也呈正相關(guān)關(guān)系。經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)位是第三大影響因素，其他因素依次是第二產(chǎn)業(yè)比重、城市化水平和農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械總動(dòng)力。

（3）影響中原經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的大部分因素有明顯的經(jīng)度地帶性規(guī)律。農(nóng)民人均純收入、資源稟賦和農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械總動(dòng)力對(duì)人均GDP的影響強(qiáng)度都從東南向西北依次降低；經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)位和第二產(chǎn)業(yè)比重對(duì)人均GDP影響從西北向東南降低。說明中原經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長可能還受到地形、氣候、區(qū)域政策等的影響。

從以上分析可以看出，EOF分析可以更好地把時(shí)間序列和空間變化相結(jié)合，揭示區(qū)域發(fā)展演變的時(shí)空規(guī)律，GWR分析能較好解釋區(qū)域發(fā)展演變的空間異質(zhì)性的形成機(jī)制。中原經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)社會(huì)和自然環(huán)境比較復(fù)雜。因此，在制定區(qū)域發(fā)展政策時(shí)，要考慮不同行政單元的特殊性�？紤]到數(shù)據(jù)的可獲得性，本文只對(duì)中原經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)30個(gè)地級(jí)行政區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長進(jìn)行研究，空間尺度較大，可能會(huì)降低小尺度單元對(duì)某些影響因素的敏感性，同時(shí)，自然環(huán)境的地形、氣候等對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展也有一定影響，本文只在分析中提及，沒有做量化分析，這些需要進(jìn)一步深入研究。

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Spatial-temporalanalysisofeconomicgrowthinCentralPlains

EconomicZonewithEOFandGRWmethods

BAIJingfeng,ZHANGHaijun

(CollegeofEnvironmentScienceandTourism,NanyangNormalUniversity,Nanyang473061,Henan,China)

Abstract:Combinedwiththenationalstrategicrequirementofcoordinateddevelopmentofin-dustrialization,urbanizationandagricultureinCentralPlainsEconomicZone,selectingtheda-taofpercapitaGDPfrom1988to2012,thispaper,byadoptingthenaturalorthogonalfunction(EOF),analyzedthespatial-temporalcharacteristicsofeconomicgrowthinCentralPlainsEco-nomicZone,andrevealedthemaindrivingforceofeconomicgrowthandevolutionwiththeaidofgeographicallyweightedregression(GWR)model.ThefirstmodalofEOFanalysisshowedthatthespatialdistributionoftheeconomicgrowth,onthewhole,inCentralPlainsEconomicZoneisoutofphasealongBeijing-GuangzhouRaiway(BGR),andthateconomywestoftheBGRgrowsfasterthanthattoeastoftheBGRandtheircorrespondingtimecoeffi-cientsshowedtheobviousinterannualchange,andpartsofregiontotheeastandwestoftherailwayhavenearly10yearsofdevelopmentcycle.Thesecondmodereflectedtheannualanomalyofeconomicgrowthinsomepartsofthezone,andthephasedistributionofspatialpatterninsouthwestandnortheastoftheregion,andtheinterannualfluctuationofitscorre-spondingtimecoefficientsismoreobvious.GWRanalysisshowedthattheimportanceoffac-torsthatresultinthechangeofpercapitaGDPintheCentralPlainsEconomicZoneisdifferentinspace.Thepercapitanetincomeofruralresidentsboaststhegreatestinfluenceontheeco-nomicgrowthoftheCentralPlainsEconomicZone,andthereisapositivecorrelation.Resourc-esendowmentisthesecondlargestinfluencingfactor,andalsopositivelycorrelatedwitheco-nomicgrowth.Theeconomiclocationisthethirdinfluencingfactor,followedbythesecondaryindustry,thelevelofurbanization,andagriculturalmachinerytotalpower.Agriculturalmachin-erytotalpowerhastheleastinfluence,andisnegativecorrelatedwitheconomicgrowth.ThefactorsthatinfluencetheeconomicgrowthintheCentralPlainsEconomicZoneshowedaclearlongitudinalzonality.Therefore,theuniquenessofdifferentadministrativeregionsshouldbeconsideredintheformulationofregionaldevelopmentpolicies.

Keywords:EOF;GWR;spatialtemporal;CentralPlainsEconomicZone

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  本文關(guān)鍵詞：中原經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)縣域交通優(yōu)勢(shì)度與區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)空間耦合，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。