【摘要】：歐盟是世界上最大的區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)集團(tuán)，在全球具有舉足輕重的地位，同時(shí)也是中國(guó)最重要的經(jīng)貿(mào)合作伙伴之一。中歐貿(mào)易歷史悠久且基礎(chǔ)堅(jiān)實(shí)，目前雙方已經(jīng)明確建立了全面戰(zhàn)略伙伴關(guān)系，雙邊貿(mào)易自21世紀(jì)以來不斷繁榮發(fā)展。但中歐貿(mào)易的繁榮發(fā)展也存在著一些問題，歐盟逆差持續(xù)擴(kuò)大，貿(mào)易摩擦日益加劇，，這些在一定程度上阻礙了中歐貿(mào)易的發(fā)展。分析中歐貿(mào)易的影響因素，預(yù)測(cè)歐盟各國(guó)的貿(mào)易潛力，可以為科學(xué)管理中歐貿(mào)易提供依據(jù)，從而促進(jìn)中歐貿(mào)易進(jìn)一步健康發(fā)展。 本文的研究定位于中國(guó)對(duì)歐盟出口貿(mào)易在繁榮發(fā)展時(shí)期（2000年至今）的主要影響因素分析，主要分為三個(gè)部分：特點(diǎn)總結(jié)，因素分析及實(shí)證研究。首先，對(duì)中歐貿(mào)易的發(fā)展歷程進(jìn)行簡(jiǎn)要回顧，并依據(jù)中歐貿(mào)易在繁榮發(fā)展時(shí)期所呈現(xiàn)出的特點(diǎn)對(duì)中歐貿(mào)易現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行總結(jié)。其次，結(jié)合國(guó)際貿(mào)易理論及中歐貿(mào)易的特點(diǎn)，提出可能影響中國(guó)對(duì)歐盟出口貿(mào)易流量的各種因素。最后，將影響因素量化并添加到貿(mào)易引力模型中去，以中國(guó)和歐盟主要的19個(gè)國(guó)家在2000-2011年的貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ)進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究，依據(jù)實(shí)證研究的結(jié)果對(duì)中國(guó)向這19個(gè)歐盟國(guó)家出口的貿(mào)易潛力進(jìn)行測(cè)算，并有針對(duì)性的提出促進(jìn)中歐貿(mào)易持續(xù)發(fā)展的對(duì)策建議。
[Abstract]:The European Union (EU) is the largest regional economic group in the world. It plays an important role in the world and is also one of China's most important economic and trade partners. China-EU trade has a long history and solid foundation. At present, the two sides have clearly established a comprehensive strategic partnership, and bilateral trade has continued to flourish since the 21st century. However, there are also some problems in the prosperity of China-EU trade. The EU deficit continues to expand and trade frictions become more and more serious, which to some extent hinders the development of China-EU trade. Analyzing the influencing factors of China-EU trade and forecasting the trade potential of EU countries can provide the basis for scientific management of China-EU trade and promote the further healthy development of China-EU trade. This paper focuses on the analysis of the main influencing factors of China's export trade to the EU during the prosperous period (2000 to present), which is divided into three parts: characteristic summary, factor analysis and empirical research. First of all, the development of China-EU trade is reviewed briefly, and the current situation of China-EU trade is summarized according to the characteristics of China-EU trade in the prosperous period. Secondly, combined with the theory of international trade and the characteristics of China-EU trade, various factors which may affect the flow of China's export trade to the EU are put forward. Finally, the influence factors are quantified and added to the trade gravity model. The empirical study is based on the trade data of 19 major countries in China and the European Union from 2000 to 2011. According to the results of empirical research, the trade potential of China's export to the 19 EU countries is measured, and the countermeasures and suggestions to promote the sustainable development of China-EU trade are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京航空航天大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F752.7;F755

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