【摘要】：近年來，由于人類過分地追求經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的同時忽略了生態(tài)環(huán)境的保護，，被破壞的生態(tài)環(huán)境反過來又制約了經(jīng)濟發(fā)展，所以可持續(xù)發(fā)展的理論被越來越多的學(xué)者們關(guān)注，而水生態(tài)承載力作為社會可持續(xù)發(fā)展的重要約束條件，其研究是為環(huán)保決策部門的管理提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。 以往的水生態(tài)承載力的研究大多是以行政區(qū)域或者整個流域為研究單元，這就導(dǎo)致評價結(jié)果并不能真實地反應(yīng)出區(qū)域的水生態(tài)承載力狀況。比如對于整個流域來說，上游的承載狀態(tài)良好，下游的承載狀態(tài)不達(dá)標(biāo)，綜合起來該流域的水生態(tài)承載力可能是處于較好的狀態(tài)，但是實際狀態(tài)并不如此，這對流域的發(fā)展是不利的，不僅影響流域的生態(tài)平衡，同時也影響了區(qū)域經(jīng)濟的整體發(fā)展。 本研究在水環(huán)境承載力和水資源承載力的基礎(chǔ)之上，主要針對沈陽經(jīng)濟區(qū)典型流域中的凡河流域和清河流域，通過建立指標(biāo)體系，運用vensim軟件對水生態(tài)承載力發(fā)展趨勢進行仿真模擬。提出了針對性較強的改善水生態(tài)承載力的方案，使人類經(jīng)濟發(fā)展在生態(tài)可承載的范圍內(nèi)。本文得出的主要結(jié)論是： 1、本文在水生態(tài)承載力的理論基礎(chǔ)之上，參考已有的水生態(tài)承載力指標(biāo)，同時根據(jù)凡河流域和清河流域的具體情況，建立了流域水生態(tài)承載力指標(biāo)體系，分別是單位工業(yè)產(chǎn)值COD排放量、水資源供需比、工業(yè)廢水達(dá)標(biāo)率、人均水資源量、人均GDP、植被覆蓋率。 2、由于水生態(tài)承載力是一個復(fù)雜的系統(tǒng)，涉及到很多理論，指標(biāo)之間也互相交叉耦合，比較了生態(tài)足跡法、自然植被凈第一生產(chǎn)力法、模型估算法等，選擇系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)方法分析水生態(tài)承載力，此方法對于處理非線性、多指標(biāo)的問題有明顯優(yōu)勢。 3、采用人口和工業(yè)廢水排放量為對比指標(biāo)，模擬數(shù)據(jù)與真實數(shù)據(jù)之間的誤差小于10%，分別為0.2%、1.5%，以此來驗證模型的真實有效性。然后通過vensim軟件模擬了五種水生態(tài)承載力的發(fā)展趨勢。 4、結(jié)果顯示，由于研究的水生態(tài)功能分區(qū)特征不同，同樣的方案對不同的水生態(tài)功能分區(qū)所產(chǎn)生的效果不盡相同。所以，在提出改善水生態(tài)承載力方案的時候，要結(jié)合流域的生態(tài)服務(wù)功能和自身特點。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the theory of sustainable development has been paid more and more attention by more and more scholars, because human beings have been excessively pursuing economic development while neglecting the protection of ecological environment, and the damaged ecological environment in turn has restricted economic development. As an important constraint for the sustainable development of society, the study of water ecological carrying capacity is to provide scientific basis for the management of environmental protection decision-making departments. In the past, the research of the ecological carrying capacity of water was mostly based on the administrative region or the whole river basin, which resulted in the evaluation results could not truly reflect the status of the water ecological carrying capacity of the region. For example, for the whole river basin, the upstream carrying capacity is good, and the downstream carrying capacity is not up to the standard. Taken together, the water ecological carrying capacity of the basin may be in a better state, but the actual situation is not so. This is unfavorable to the development of the basin, which not only affects the ecological balance of the basin, but also affects the overall development of the regional economy. On the basis of carrying capacity of water environment and carrying capacity of water resources, this study mainly aims at Fanhe basin and Qinghe river basin in typical watershed of Shenyang economic zone, through establishing index system. The development trend of water ecological carrying capacity is simulated by vensim software. In order to make the development of human economy within the range of ecological carrying capacity, this paper puts forward a plan to improve the ecological carrying capacity of water. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1. Based on the theory of water ecological carrying capacity, this paper refers to the existing indicators of water ecological carrying capacity, and at the same time, according to the specific conditions of the Fan River Basin and the Qing River Basin, The index system of water ecological carrying capacity of watershed is set up, which are the COD emissions per unit industrial output value, the ratio of water supply and demand, the ratio of industrial wastewater to the standard, the amount of water resources per capita, and the coverage rate of GDP, vegetation per capita. 2. Because the water ecological carrying capacity is a complex system, it involves many theories, and the indexes are also cross-coupled. The ecological footprint method, the net first productivity method of natural vegetation, the model estimation method and so on are compared. The system dynamics method is chosen to analyze the ecological bearing capacity of water. This method has obvious advantages in dealing with nonlinear and multi-index problems. 3. Using the population and industrial wastewater discharge as the comparative index, the error between the simulated data and the real data is less than 10, which is 0.21.5, respectively, in order to verify the real validity of the model. Then the development trend of five kinds of water ecological carrying capacity is simulated by vensim software. 4. The results show that the same scheme has different effects on different water ecological function zoning because of the different zoning characteristics of water ecological function. Therefore, to improve the water ecological carrying capacity, we should combine the ecological service function of the watershed and its own characteristics.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：X143

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