基于效應分析的推進中俄自由貿(mào)易區(qū)建設研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-11-09 15:02
【摘要】：伴隨著經(jīng)濟全球化進程,區(qū)域經(jīng)濟一體化成為世界發(fā)展的重要潮流,而自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的快速發(fā)展也成為了區(qū)域經(jīng)濟一體化的重要方式。截至2013年6月,中國正與五大洲的29個國家和地區(qū)建設16個自貿(mào)區(qū),已經(jīng)簽署并實施12個自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定。2012年,中俄貿(mào)易額達到881.6億美元,同比增長11.2%,中國已經(jīng)成為俄羅斯的第一大貿(mào)易伙伴,占俄國際貿(mào)易總額的10%以上,同時,俄羅斯是中國的第九大貿(mào)易伙伴。2012年,俄羅斯正式加入WTO,俄羅斯將在WTO法律規(guī)則框架內(nèi)開展國際貿(mào)易,俄羅斯也準備與其他國家進行自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的談判。但是,以邊境小額貿(mào)易和能源貿(mào)易為主體的中俄貿(mào)易,越來越適應不了當前的形勢。如何深化和發(fā)展兩國的經(jīng)貿(mào)關系,越來越受到兩國學者的關注。在區(qū)域經(jīng)濟一體化和兩國的經(jīng)濟互補性的背景下,中俄應考慮兩國經(jīng)貿(mào)關系戰(zhàn)略升級,建立自由貿(mào)易區(qū),推動中俄經(jīng)貿(mào)關系向更高水平、更大規(guī)模邁進。 本文在大量閱讀文獻、收集相關資料的基礎上,以比較優(yōu)勢理論、關稅同盟理論、自由貿(mào)易區(qū)理論以及產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易理論為理論基礎,首先指出建設中俄自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的現(xiàn)實基礎,闡述中俄在雙邊貿(mào)易、雙向投資、科技合作、能源合作、勞務合作、跨境交通網(wǎng)絡建設等領域合作發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀及存在問題,并指出作為建設中俄自由貿(mào)易區(qū)現(xiàn)實基礎的經(jīng)濟特區(qū)建設概況；然后,從自然資源、勞動力資源、科技實力、產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)四個方面闡述中俄兩國在經(jīng)濟上的互補性,采用對外貿(mào)易依存度指數(shù)衡量對外貿(mào)易對中俄兩國的作用,采用顯性比較優(yōu)勢指數(shù)和貿(mào)易互補性指數(shù)衡量中俄兩國在國際貿(mào)易中的互補性,采用產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易指數(shù)衡量中俄兩國產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易水平；再次,分析建設中俄自由貿(mào)易區(qū)產(chǎn)生的經(jīng)濟效應,通過建立貿(mào)易引力模型對中國與別國雙邊貿(mào)易的影響因素加以分析,測算中俄當前的貿(mào)易水平為“貿(mào)易不足”,基礎建設自由貿(mào)易區(qū)對中俄雙邊貿(mào)易的重要作用,并通過局部分析模型對中俄自由貿(mào)易區(qū)產(chǎn)生的貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造效應加以預測；最后,根據(jù)研究分析結(jié)果,提出推進中俄自由貿(mào)易區(qū)建設的對策建議。 本文以分析產(chǎn)生經(jīng)濟效應作為視角對中俄自由貿(mào)易區(qū)進行研究,深入分析中俄雙邊貿(mào)易的影響因素以及建設自由貿(mào)易區(qū)對中俄貿(mào)易的影響,并預測產(chǎn)生效應。中俄自由貿(mào)易區(qū)建設將是一個復雜、漫長的過程,希望中俄兩國可以克服重重困難并實現(xiàn)目標,也希望本文能對推進中俄自由貿(mào)易區(qū)建設提供一定的理論依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:With the process of economic globalization, regional economic integration has become an important trend of world development, and the rapid development of free trade zones has become an important way of regional economic integration. As of June 2013, China is building 16 free trade zones with 29 countries and regions on five continents, and has signed and implemented 12 free trade agreements. In 2012, Sino-Russian trade volume reached 88.16 billion US dollars, an increase of 11.2 percent over the same period last year. China has become Russia's largest trading partner, accounting for more than 10 percent of Russia's total international trade, and Russia is China's ninth largest trading partner. In 2012, Russia formally joined the WTO, Russia will conduct international trade within the framework of the WTO rules and regulations, and it is ready to negotiate free trade zones with other countries. However, Sino-Russian trade, dominated by border micro-trade and energy trade, is becoming more and more unfit for the current situation. How to deepen and develop the economic and trade relations between the two countries has attracted more and more attention from scholars of the two countries. Under the background of regional economic integration and economic complementarity between the two countries, China and Russia should consider the strategic upgrading of economic and trade relations between the two countries, establish a free trade zone, and promote Sino-Russian economic and trade relations to a higher level and on a larger scale. On the basis of reading a great deal of literature and collecting relevant data, this paper, based on comparative advantage theory, customs union theory, free trade area theory and intra-industry trade theory, first points out the realistic foundation of building Sino-Russian free trade zone. Expounding the current situation and existing problems of Sino-Russian cooperation in the fields of bilateral trade, two-way investment, scientific and technological cooperation, energy cooperation, labor cooperation, cross-border transportation network construction, etc. It also points out the general situation of the construction of special economic zones, which is the realistic foundation of the construction of Sino-Russian free trade area. Then, from the four aspects of natural resources, labor resources, scientific and technological strength, and product structure, this paper expounds the economic complementarity between China and Russia, and uses the foreign trade dependency index to measure the role of foreign trade in China and Russia. The dominant comparative advantage index and trade complementarity index are used to measure the complementarity between China and Russia in international trade, and the intra-industry trade index is used to measure the level of intra-industry trade between China and Russia. Thirdly, it analyzes the economic effects of the construction of China-Russia Free Trade area, analyzes the influencing factors of bilateral trade between China and other countries by establishing a trade gravity model, and calculates that the current level of trade between China and Russia is "insufficient trade". Basic construction free trade zone plays an important role in bilateral trade between China and Russia, and the trade creation effect of Sino-Russian free trade zone is predicted by partial analysis model. Finally, according to the research and analysis results, put forward the countermeasures and suggestions to promote the construction of Sino-Russian Free Trade area. This paper studies the Sino-Russian Free Trade area from the perspective of economic effect, analyzes the influence factors of bilateral trade between China and Russia and the influence of building free trade area on Sino-Russian trade, and forecasts the effect. The construction of China-Russia Free Trade area will be a complicated and long process. It is hoped that China and Russia can overcome many difficulties and achieve their goals. It is also hoped that this paper can provide some theoretical basis for promoting the construction of Sino-Russian Free Trade area.
【學位授予單位】：東北林業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F752.7
本文編號：2320750
[Abstract]:With the process of economic globalization, regional economic integration has become an important trend of world development, and the rapid development of free trade zones has become an important way of regional economic integration. As of June 2013, China is building 16 free trade zones with 29 countries and regions on five continents, and has signed and implemented 12 free trade agreements. In 2012, Sino-Russian trade volume reached 88.16 billion US dollars, an increase of 11.2 percent over the same period last year. China has become Russia's largest trading partner, accounting for more than 10 percent of Russia's total international trade, and Russia is China's ninth largest trading partner. In 2012, Russia formally joined the WTO, Russia will conduct international trade within the framework of the WTO rules and regulations, and it is ready to negotiate free trade zones with other countries. However, Sino-Russian trade, dominated by border micro-trade and energy trade, is becoming more and more unfit for the current situation. How to deepen and develop the economic and trade relations between the two countries has attracted more and more attention from scholars of the two countries. Under the background of regional economic integration and economic complementarity between the two countries, China and Russia should consider the strategic upgrading of economic and trade relations between the two countries, establish a free trade zone, and promote Sino-Russian economic and trade relations to a higher level and on a larger scale. On the basis of reading a great deal of literature and collecting relevant data, this paper, based on comparative advantage theory, customs union theory, free trade area theory and intra-industry trade theory, first points out the realistic foundation of building Sino-Russian free trade zone. Expounding the current situation and existing problems of Sino-Russian cooperation in the fields of bilateral trade, two-way investment, scientific and technological cooperation, energy cooperation, labor cooperation, cross-border transportation network construction, etc. It also points out the general situation of the construction of special economic zones, which is the realistic foundation of the construction of Sino-Russian free trade area. Then, from the four aspects of natural resources, labor resources, scientific and technological strength, and product structure, this paper expounds the economic complementarity between China and Russia, and uses the foreign trade dependency index to measure the role of foreign trade in China and Russia. The dominant comparative advantage index and trade complementarity index are used to measure the complementarity between China and Russia in international trade, and the intra-industry trade index is used to measure the level of intra-industry trade between China and Russia. Thirdly, it analyzes the economic effects of the construction of China-Russia Free Trade area, analyzes the influencing factors of bilateral trade between China and other countries by establishing a trade gravity model, and calculates that the current level of trade between China and Russia is "insufficient trade". Basic construction free trade zone plays an important role in bilateral trade between China and Russia, and the trade creation effect of Sino-Russian free trade zone is predicted by partial analysis model. Finally, according to the research and analysis results, put forward the countermeasures and suggestions to promote the construction of Sino-Russian Free Trade area. This paper studies the Sino-Russian Free Trade area from the perspective of economic effect, analyzes the influence factors of bilateral trade between China and Russia and the influence of building free trade area on Sino-Russian trade, and forecasts the effect. The construction of China-Russia Free Trade area will be a complicated and long process. It is hoped that China and Russia can overcome many difficulties and achieve their goals. It is also hoped that this paper can provide some theoretical basis for promoting the construction of Sino-Russian Free Trade area.
【學位授予單位】：東北林業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F752.7
【共引文獻】
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