【摘要】：設(shè)立自由貿(mào)易試驗(yàn)區(qū)是我國(guó)全面深化改革和擴(kuò)大開(kāi)放過(guò)程中一項(xiàng)重要舉措。以第二批試點(diǎn)省份福建省作為處置單元,其他27個(gè)省份為比較控制單元,基于2012年一季度至2016年一季度的省域面板數(shù)據(jù),利用合成控制法進(jìn)行政策影響評(píng)估。結(jié)果表明,自貿(mào)試驗(yàn)區(qū)政策對(duì)所選試點(diǎn)省份經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展具有正向溢出效應(yīng),且溢出效應(yīng)在自貿(mào)試驗(yàn)區(qū)運(yùn)營(yíng)一年左右出現(xiàn)顯著的幅度較大的上升。整體看,自貿(mào)試驗(yàn)區(qū)政策對(duì)試點(diǎn)省份平均每季度GDP的溢出為344.48億元人民幣,季均經(jīng)濟(jì)溢出效應(yīng)達(dá)6.13%。穩(wěn)健性檢驗(yàn)表明,所選試點(diǎn)省份的政策溢出效果在統(tǒng)計(jì)上是顯著的。
[Abstract]:The establishment of free trade test area is an important measure in the process of deepening reform and opening up. Fujian Province, the second batch of pilot provinces, was used as the disposal unit and the other 27 provinces as comparative control units. Based on provincial panel data from the first quarter of 2012 to the first quarter of 2016, the composite control method was used to conduct policy impact assessment. The results show that the policy of FTAZ has a positive spillover effect on the economic development of the selected pilot provinces, and the spillover effect has a significant increase in the operation of the FTAZ for about one year. Overall, the average quarterly GDP spillover from the FTAZ policy to the pilot provinces was 34.448 billion yuan, with a quarterly average economic spillover effect of 6.13 yuan. The robustness test shows that the policy spillover effect of the selected pilot provinces is statistically significant.
【作者單位】： 福建社會(huì)科學(xué)院;
【分類號(hào)】：F752.8

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