本文選題：飽和負(fù)荷 + 方法體系�。� 參考：《上海交通大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：電力的發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會的發(fā)展進(jìn)步密切相關(guān)，，電力為經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會的發(fā)展提供了保障，同樣經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會的發(fā)展可以進(jìn)一步拉動電力的需求與發(fā)展。隨著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展，城市也經(jīng)歷了極大的膨脹式發(fā)展，如今面臨著人口密集、老齡化、土地資源緊缺、環(huán)境與空氣污染嚴(yán)重等諸多難題，城市發(fā)展與其電網(wǎng)發(fā)展之間的關(guān)系既唇齒相依又有矛盾。若對城市電網(wǎng)的遠(yuǎn)期發(fā)展規(guī)劃方面的工作缺乏或者進(jìn)展不到位，則勢必會給未來電網(wǎng)的建設(shè)與改造工作帶來很多麻煩，也使改造與擴(kuò)建工作的成本大大增加。而用電需求的飽和負(fù)荷預(yù)測可以確定一個地區(qū)未來電網(wǎng)發(fā)展與用電需求的最終規(guī)模，并以其遠(yuǎn)期電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃目標(biāo)指導(dǎo)近期電網(wǎng)的建設(shè)，從而可以有效地減少電網(wǎng)改造的成本，做到有步驟有條理的進(jìn)行該地區(qū)區(qū)域電網(wǎng)的改造與建設(shè)，對區(qū)域規(guī)劃、區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)與電網(wǎng)之間的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展大有裨益。本文提到的飽和負(fù)荷分析技術(shù)主要包括飽和負(fù)荷分析預(yù)測方法體系，飽和負(fù)荷預(yù)測的具體操作與流程，誤差分析技術(shù)以及模型檢驗(yàn)技術(shù)。 本文通過對國內(nèi)外大量資料以及發(fā)達(dá)國家與地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)、電力飽和發(fā)展歷程與規(guī)律、特點(diǎn)的研究，闡述了飽和負(fù)荷的概念與特征、研究內(nèi)容與研究意義，提出了飽和負(fù)荷的新內(nèi)涵，修正與完善了電力飽和負(fù)荷判定量化的指標(biāo)體系。更加系統(tǒng)的整理、總結(jié)和介紹了現(xiàn)有的飽和負(fù)荷預(yù)測模型與方法體系，并對飽和負(fù)荷的發(fā)展規(guī)律進(jìn)行了比較深入的研究與分析，提出了基于Logistic曲線的負(fù)荷發(fā)展歷程階段劃分理論。本文對飽和負(fù)荷預(yù)測的Logistic模型以及Gompertz模型進(jìn)行了數(shù)值分析方面的改進(jìn)，從而提高了預(yù)測精度并使得預(yù)測結(jié)果更加科學(xué)合理。本文也研究與分析了飽和負(fù)荷的影響因素，采用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度分析方法具體量化評價影響因素的作用大小，并新創(chuàng)了從影響因素角度來分析建模的多維度飽和負(fù)荷預(yù)測方法。該方法首先通過灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度分析評估影響因素，然后選擇建立以影響因素為自變量、用電需求為因變量的函數(shù)，通過最小二乘法確定具體的數(shù)學(xué)模型。該方法不僅可以評估未來用電的飽和情況，也可以對影響因素進(jìn)行靈敏度分析，具有較高的預(yù)測精度，是對飽和負(fù)荷預(yù)測方法的拓展與創(chuàng)新；同時該方法也可以產(chǎn)生反饋校驗(yàn)指標(biāo)，具有一定的指導(dǎo)、實(shí)用性價值。本文最后采用改進(jìn)Logistic模型與多維度飽和負(fù)荷預(yù)測模型對案例進(jìn)行了研究與分析，完成了對案例的用電飽和規(guī)模以及飽和時間點(diǎn)的預(yù)測與分析工作。
[Abstract]:The development of electricity is closely related to the economic and social development and progress. Electricity provides a guarantee for the economy and the development of the society. The development of the economy and the social development can further stimulate the demand and development of electricity. With the rapid development of our economy, the city has also experienced a great expansion development, and now it faces the dense population, the aging and the soil. The relationship between urban development and the development of power grid is both dependent and contradictory. The lack or progress of the future development planning of urban power grid will bring a lot of trouble to the construction and transformation of the future power grid. The cost of the expansion work is greatly increased. The saturation load forecast with electricity demand can determine the final scale of the future power grid development and electricity demand in a region, and guide the construction of the recent grid with its long-term grid planning objectives, thus effectively reducing the formation of the power grid transformation, and making a orderly and orderly conduct of the area. The transformation and construction of the domain power grid is of great benefit to the regional planning, the coordinated development of regional economy and the power grid. The saturated load analysis technology mentioned in this paper mainly includes the system of saturated load analysis and prediction, the specific operation and process of saturated load forecasting, the technique of error analysis and the technology of model inspection.
Through a large amount of information at home and abroad as well as the development of the developed country and region economy, the development and characteristics of the power saturation, the concept and characteristics of the saturated load, the research content and the significance of the research are expounded, the new connotation of the saturation load is put forward, and the index system of the judgement and quantification of the electric load saturation load is amended and perfected. The existing prediction model and method system of saturated load are summarized and introduced, and the development law of saturated load is studied and analyzed. The stage division theory of load development process based on Logistic curve is put forward. The Logistic model and Gompertz model of saturated load forecasting are carried out in this paper. The improvement of analysis improves the prediction precision and makes the prediction result more scientific and reasonable. This paper also studies and analyzes the influence factors of the saturation load, and uses the grey correlation analysis method to quantify the effect of the influence factors, and creates a new multi dimension saturation load preview from the influence factor angle. In this method, the influence factors are evaluated by the grey correlation analysis, and then the mathematical model is determined by the function of the dependent variable and the function of the electricity demand as the dependent variable. The method can not only evaluate the saturation of electricity in the future, but also can be sensitive to the factors. Analysis, with high prediction accuracy, is the expansion and innovation of the prediction method of saturated load. At the same time, this method can also produce feedback check index, which has certain guidance and practical value. In the end of this paper, the improved Logistic model and multi dimension saturation load forecasting model are used to study and analyze the case, and the case is completed. Prediction and analysis of saturation and saturation time.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TM714

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