發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-25 21:11

  本文選題：增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力 + 增長(zhǎng)減緩��； 參考：《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)動(dòng)態(tài)》2017年03期

【摘要】：本文通過(guò)對(duì)各省增長(zhǎng)狀況的對(duì)比分析,認(rèn)清區(qū)域增長(zhǎng)特征和增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力源泉,尋找通過(guò)及時(shí)有效轉(zhuǎn)換增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力機(jī)制,實(shí)現(xiàn)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)和挖掘新的增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力的內(nèi)在機(jī)制。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):首先,中國(guó)正處于工業(yè)化后期增長(zhǎng)階段,已經(jīng)成功跨過(guò)中等偏高收入門檻,成為中等偏高收入國(guó)家。中國(guó)過(guò)半數(shù)省份集中在第四增長(zhǎng)階段,有近20%的省份已跨過(guò)第五增長(zhǎng)階段收入門檻,人均收入高于11000美元。其次,中國(guó)當(dāng)前面臨連續(xù)增長(zhǎng)減緩的可能較大,處于高增長(zhǎng)階段的省份因外向型程度較高在2007年左右發(fā)生連續(xù)增長(zhǎng)減緩,而多數(shù)省份增長(zhǎng)減緩跡象集中表現(xiàn)在2010年之后。最后,對(duì)區(qū)域代表性省份增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力分析發(fā)現(xiàn),東部區(qū)域增長(zhǎng)表現(xiàn)較好的省份產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型較為成功,依靠高端制造業(yè)和服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)較為穩(wěn)定;中西部地區(qū)增長(zhǎng)分化較為嚴(yán)重,東北三省及山西、河北因長(zhǎng)期積累的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)問(wèn)題,舊有產(chǎn)業(yè)面臨產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩和改革瓶頸,經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)斷崖式下跌。對(duì)中西部增長(zhǎng)較落后的省份而言,應(yīng)多注重投資和產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移對(duì)增長(zhǎng)的拉動(dòng)作用,隨著增長(zhǎng)水平的提高和消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的改善,再適時(shí)進(jìn)行產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型和發(fā)展服務(wù)業(yè),轉(zhuǎn)換增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力機(jī)制,實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)。本文對(duì)中國(guó)連續(xù)增長(zhǎng)減緩不同時(shí)期以及處于不同收入階段省份增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力之源進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析。
[Abstract]:Based on the comparative analysis of the growth situation of the provinces, this paper recognizes the regional growth characteristics and the sources of the growth power, and looks for the internal mechanism to realize the sustained and stable growth of the regional economy and excavate the new growth motive force through the timely and effective transformation of the growth motive mechanism. First of all, China is in the late stage of industrialization and has successfully crossed the middle high income threshold and become a middle high income country. More than half of China's provinces are concentrated in the fourth phase of growth, and nearly 20 percent have passed the fifth growth threshold, with a per capita income of more than $11000. Second, China is now likely to face a sustained slowdown in growth, with the provinces in the high-growth stage experiencing a sustained slowdown around 2007 due to the high degree of extroversion, while the signs of slowdown in most provinces are concentrated after 2010. Finally, through the analysis of the growth power of the representative provinces in the region, it is found that the industrial transformation of the provinces with better growth performance in the eastern region is more successful, and the economic growth is more stable depending on the development of high-end manufacturing and service industries. The growth and differentiation of the central and western regions is more serious. Due to the long-term accumulation of industrial structure and economic structure problems, the old industries are facing overcapacity and bottleneck of reform, and the economy is falling precipitously in the three northeastern provinces and Shanxi and Hebei provinces. For the provinces with backward growth in the central and western regions, more attention should be paid to the pull effect of investment and industrial transfer on growth. With the improvement of the growth level and the improvement of the consumption structure, the industrial structure transformation and the development of the service industry should be carried out in good time. We will transform the growth motive mechanism to achieve sustained and stable economic growth. This paper makes an empirical analysis of the driving force of the growth of provinces in different periods and in different income stages.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)社會(huì)科學(xué)院經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所;
【基金】：國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金重大招標(biāo)項(xiàng)目“加快經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整與促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)自主協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展研究”(12&ZD084);國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目“中國(guó)城市規(guī)模、空間集聚與管理模式研究”(15&AJL013) 中國(guó)博士后科學(xué)基金(第60批)面上項(xiàng)目“中國(guó)人力資本配置扭曲、結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型與效率模式重塑研究”(2016M601207)資助
【分類號(hào)】：F127

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