發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-14 09:45

  本文選題：人民幣升值 + 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長　； 參考：《江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：通常來說,影響一國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的因素是錯綜復(fù)雜的,資本的增加、勞動生產(chǎn)率的提高以及技術(shù)進(jìn)步將直接推動一國經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長,然而在經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化時(shí)代,還有許多間接影響因素,匯率就是其中核心因素之一。 2005年7月21日的人民幣匯率改革,確定了我國人民幣匯率不再釘住單一美元,開始實(shí)行以市場供求為基礎(chǔ)、參考一籃子貨幣進(jìn)行調(diào)節(jié)、有管理的浮動匯率制度。在我國當(dāng)前的人民幣匯率制度下,人民幣匯率處于升值通道內(nèi)。根據(jù)國際清算銀行(BIS)公布的人民幣名義有效匯率指數(shù)測算,從2005年7月至2013年10月,根據(jù)貿(mào)易權(quán)重計(jì)算的人民幣名義有效匯率累計(jì)升值27%,人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率累計(jì)升值36.61%。根據(jù)已有理論分析,一國貨幣的升值會對東道國經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生不利影響。然而,事實(shí)并非如此,在人民幣快速升值的同時(shí),江西省對外貿(mào)易規(guī)模不斷增長,實(shí)際利用外商投資逐年增加�；诮魇〗�(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r與現(xiàn)有理論的不符,需要有針對性考察匯率與江西省經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間的關(guān)系。基于此,本文在已有理論和文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,從區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)的角度從發(fā),探究人民幣匯率變動對江西省經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響,并構(gòu)建了計(jì)量模型。 本文主要有六個(gè)章節(jié)。第一章為緒論,介紹本文的寫作背景、寫作意圖、文章結(jié)構(gòu)、創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)與不足之處以及前人的一些研究成果。本文首先通過對2005年7月人民幣匯率改革以來人民幣持續(xù)升值,以這一現(xiàn)象作為本文的切入點(diǎn),探究其對江西省經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響；然后,通過閱讀相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)總結(jié)目前學(xué)術(shù)界關(guān)于匯率影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的傳遞效應(yīng)理論以及相關(guān)實(shí)證研究成果。最后,在總結(jié)已有研究成果的同時(shí)提出改進(jìn)建議。第二章闡述匯率影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的理論,重點(diǎn)介紹了匯率影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制,主要通過出口貿(mào)易渠道和FDI渠道。第三章則根據(jù)我國當(dāng)前產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移的大背景及江西省利用省外資金的現(xiàn)狀,從區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)角度出發(fā),借鑒產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移理論,闡述匯率通過影響省際轉(zhuǎn)移投資而影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長；結(jié)合前人的研究成果及區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移理論,提出了本文的理論框架即匯率通過出口貿(mào)易渠道、外商直接投資渠道和省際轉(zhuǎn)移投資渠道影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。第四章主要介紹了江西省經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r、特點(diǎn)及區(qū)位優(yōu)勢。第五章則重點(diǎn)分析人民幣匯率變動對江西省經(jīng)濟(jì)增長影響的傳導(dǎo)路徑的實(shí)證分析。本文將匯率對江西省經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的傳導(dǎo)路徑分為出口額渠道、外商直接投資渠道和省際轉(zhuǎn)移投資渠道,分別闡述各自的傳導(dǎo)理論和機(jī)制。實(shí)證方法采用結(jié)構(gòu)向量自回歸(VAR)模型分析框架。在ADF單位根檢驗(yàn)、Granger因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)和Johansen檢驗(yàn)的基礎(chǔ)之上建立一個(gè)VAR模型綜合考慮匯率通過不同路徑對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的沖擊。第六章為本文政策建議部分。 實(shí)證結(jié)果表明,第一,從短期動態(tài)關(guān)系來看,人民幣匯率對出口的沖擊有限,而且持續(xù)性較差,從長期來看,人民幣匯率升值會造成江西省出口額增幅的減少,江西省出口額的變動將在較長時(shí)間內(nèi)對江西省經(jīng)濟(jì)增長產(chǎn)生影響；第二,從短期動態(tài)關(guān)系來看,人民幣匯率升值對FDI產(chǎn)生正向沖擊而且持續(xù)性較好；從長期看,自2005年匯率改革至今,人民幣匯率的不斷上升增加了江西省吸引的外商直接投資,江西省的實(shí)證分析驗(yàn)證了理論界關(guān)于匯率與外商直接投資理論中匯率升值有利于吸引外商直接投資的假說,外商直接投資的增加會促進(jìn)江西省經(jīng)濟(jì)增長,外商直接投資對江西省經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)度隨著時(shí)間逐漸提高；第三,從短期動態(tài)關(guān)系來看,人民幣匯率對省際轉(zhuǎn)移投資產(chǎn)生正向沖擊,正向沖擊的持續(xù)性較好；從長期來看,人民幣升值會引起江西省省際轉(zhuǎn)移投資的增加；由于江西省省際轉(zhuǎn)移投資與江西省經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度之間存在格蘭杰因果,驗(yàn)證了省際轉(zhuǎn)移投資是有利于促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的,而且江西省吸引的省際轉(zhuǎn)移投資的作用如同外商直接投資一樣,在促進(jìn)江西省經(jīng)濟(jì)增長扮演著越來越重要的角色。 在實(shí)證研究的基礎(chǔ)上,本文針對性地提出了相關(guān)的政策建議：第一,著眼于努力提升出口產(chǎn)品的技術(shù)含量和質(zhì)量,淘汰落后產(chǎn)能,進(jìn)行產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化升級,吸引高新技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)落戶江西,提升整體經(jīng)濟(jì)的自主創(chuàng)新能力；鑒于歷史上我國出口產(chǎn)品的出口退稅政策的影響,應(yīng)逐步降低出口退稅政策力度,特別是那些大量消耗資源、污染環(huán)境的產(chǎn)品必須堅(jiān)決取消出口退稅的政策支持。第二,努力創(chuàng)造良好的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境和制度環(huán)境來吸引外商投資。第三,改善交通條件,進(jìn)行基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè),提供配套服務(wù)；充分利用中部崛起戰(zhàn)略給予的優(yōu)惠政策,積極申報(bào)國家戰(zhàn)略,比如鄱陽湖生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)規(guī)劃、國務(wù)院關(guān)于振興贛南等原中央蘇區(qū)計(jì)劃等,借助中央政策來支持江西省經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Generally speaking, the factors that affect the economic growth of a country are complex, the increase of capital, the increase of labor productivity and the progress of technology will directly promote the economic growth of a country. However, in the era of economic globalization, there are many indirect factors, and the exchange rate is one of the core factors.
The RMB exchange rate reform in July 21, 2005 confirms that the RMB exchange rate in China is no longer nailed to a single dollar, starting with the market supply and demand as the basis, with a reference to a basket of currencies, and a managed floating exchange rate system. Under the current RMB exchange rate system in China, the rate of the people's currency is in the appreciation channel. The nominal effective exchange rate index of RMB published (BIS) is calculated from July 2005 to October 2013. The nominal effective exchange rate of RMB based on trade weight is 27%, and the cumulative appreciation of real effective exchange rate of RMB is 36.61%., according to the existing theoretical analysis, the appreciation of one country's currency will have adverse effects on the host country's economy. In fact, in the rapid appreciation of the RMB, the scale of Jiangxi's foreign trade is growing, and the actual use of foreign investment has increased year by year. Based on the differences between the economic development of Jiangxi and the existing theories, the relationship between the exchange rate of Jiangxi and the economic growth of Jiangxi Province is required. On the basis of this, from the perspective of regional economy, we explore the impact of RMB exchange rate change on Jiangxi's economic growth and build a econometric model.
This article mainly has six chapters. The first chapter is the introduction, which introduces the writing background, the writing intention, the structure of the article, the innovation and the inadequacies as well as some research achievements of the predecessors. Firstly, this article, through the continuous appreciation of RMB since the reform of the RMB exchange rate in July 2005, has taken this phenomenon as the breakthrough point in this paper to explore its effect on Jiangxi. The influence of provincial economic growth; then, through the reading of relevant literature to summarize the transfer effect theory of current academic circles on the impact of exchange rate on economic growth and the results of relevant empirical research. Finally, we put forward some suggestions for improvement while summarizing the existing research results. The second chapter expounds the theory of exchange rate affecting economic growth, focusing on the influence of exchange rate. The transmission mechanism of economic growth is mainly through the export trade channel and the FDI channel. The third chapter, based on the background of China's current industrial transfer and the current situation of the utilization of the capital of Jiangxi Province, from the perspective of regional economics, draws on the theory of industrial transfer, and expounds that exchange rate affects economic growth through the influence of inter provincial transfer investment; The fourth chapter mainly introduces the economic development, characteristics and regional advantages of Jiangxi province. The fifth chapter focuses on the analysis of the RMB exchange rate. The fifth chapter focuses on the analysis of the RMB exchange rate. The empirical analysis of the transmission path of the changes in the economic growth of Jiangxi province. This paper divides the transmission path of the exchange rate to the economic growth of Jiangxi province into the export channel, the foreign direct investment channel and the inter provincial transfer investment channel, respectively, to explain the respective transmission theory and mechanism. The empirical method adopts the structure vector autoregressive (VAR) model analysis frame. On the basis of ADF unit root test, Granger causality test and Johansen test, a VAR model is set up to consider the impact of exchange rate on economic growth through different paths. The sixth chapter is the policy suggestion part of this paper.
The empirical results show that, first, from the short-term dynamic relationship, the impact of RMB exchange rate on exports is limited and its persistence is poor. In the long run, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate will result in the decrease in the export volume of Jiangxi Province, and the changes in the export volume of Jiangxi will have an effect on the economic growth of Jiangxi province for a long time; second, from the short term. In the dynamic relationship, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate has a positive impact on the FDI and has a good persistence. From the long term, since the exchange rate reform in 2005, the continuous rise of the RMB exchange rate has increased the foreign direct investment attracted by Jiangxi province. The empirical analysis of Jiangxi province proves that the theoretical circle has raised the exchange rate of the exchange rate and the foreign direct investment theory. The increase of foreign direct investment will promote the economic growth of Jiangxi province. The contribution of foreign direct investment to the economic growth of Jiangxi province is gradually increasing with time. Third, from the short-term dynamic relationship, the RMB exchange rate has a positive impact on the inter provincial transfer investment, and the positive impact is sustained. In the long run, the appreciation of RMB will lead to the increase of inter provincial transfer investment in Jiangxi province. Because of the Grainger causality between the inter provincial transfer investment in Jiangxi and the economic growth rate of Jiangxi Province, it is proved that the inter provincial transfer investment is beneficial to promoting economic growth, and the role of inter provincial transfer investment attracted by Jiangxi province is similar to that of Jiangxi province. Like foreign direct investment, it plays an increasingly important role in promoting Jiangxi's economic growth.
On the basis of empirical research, this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions: first, we should focus on improving the technical content and quality of export products, eliminating backward production capacity, optimizing and upgrading the industrial structure, attracting high and new technology industries to settle in Jiangxi and improving the independent innovation ability of the whole economy; in view of our country's history The effect of export tax rebate policy should gradually reduce the export tax rebate policy, especially those who consume resources in large quantities, and the products that pollute the environment must resolutely cancel the policy support for export tax rebates. Second, create a good economic environment and institutional environment to attract foreign investment. Third, improve the traffic conditions and carry out the foundation Facilities construction, providing supporting services, making full use of the preferential policies given by the strategy of the rise of central China, actively declaring the national strategy, such as the Poyang Lake eco economic zone planning, the State Council on the revitalization of Southern Jiangxi and other original Central Soviet areas, and the support of central policy to support the economic development of Jiangxi province.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F224;F832.6;F127

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本文編號：1887349