本文選題：技術(shù)進(jìn)步 + 就業(yè)量　； 參考：《西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著改革開放的不斷深入,技術(shù)進(jìn)步源源不斷為我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展提供動力,從東部沿海地區(qū)的崛起到西部大開發(fā),我國各個地區(qū)都呈現(xiàn)了不同程度的發(fā)展趨勢。由于各個地區(qū)的資源要素稟賦不同,因而其發(fā)展的模式和方法也不盡相同。 進(jìn)入21世紀(jì)以來,技術(shù)創(chuàng)新已經(jīng)成為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的最重要源泉動力。一般而言,經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長和創(chuàng)新應(yīng)該使社會更具有創(chuàng)造力,帶動勞動力勞動的積極性,然而現(xiàn)實(shí)是失業(yè)狀況仍然居高不下。隨著市場經(jīng)濟(jì)的不斷發(fā)展,豐富的勞動力資源稟賦不能被充分的吸收和利用,成為了經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的阻礙和瓶頸,使得我國的就業(yè)領(lǐng)域存在突出的總量和結(jié)構(gòu)的矛盾。 在經(jīng)濟(jì)高速發(fā)展和就業(yè)形勢日益嚴(yán)峻的情況下,技術(shù)進(jìn)步是否能夠帶動勞動就業(yè)成為了一個重要的問題。我們該如何有效的發(fā)揮區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)優(yōu)勢,選擇恰當(dāng)?shù)募夹g(shù)進(jìn)步途徑,從而更好的帶動就業(yè),是一個需要思考的問題,也是本文的出發(fā)點(diǎn)所在。本文主要研究技術(shù)進(jìn)步對西部地區(qū)就業(yè)量,即就業(yè)總數(shù)的影響。 關(guān)于技術(shù)進(jìn)步對就業(yè)的影響,國內(nèi)外學(xué)者有著不同的觀點(diǎn)和看法。國外的研究是基于一系列經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論進(jìn)行的,觀察角度的差異使得研究的結(jié)果各異,國內(nèi)的研究主要是從技術(shù)進(jìn)步對就業(yè)總量和就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的理論和實(shí)證方面進(jìn)行宏觀的研究,國內(nèi)學(xué)者大多是針對全國范圍內(nèi)進(jìn)行整體的研究,而對于不同區(qū)域的研究相對較少。由于我國西部地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平和要素稟賦的特殊性,技術(shù)進(jìn)步對就業(yè)的影響機(jī)制不同,如何有效的發(fā)揮區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)優(yōu)勢,選擇恰當(dāng)?shù)募夹g(shù)進(jìn)步途徑,從而更好的帶動就業(yè),是本文的出發(fā)點(diǎn)所在。 本文主要是基于西部地區(qū)技術(shù)進(jìn)步對就業(yè)的影響路徑,將西方的理論研究成果結(jié)合我國的實(shí)際情況進(jìn)行針對性的實(shí)證分析,并通過差異化對比分析突出研究對象的特征。文章主要內(nèi)容包括理論介紹與分析、現(xiàn)狀分析、實(shí)證分析和對策分析,通過對我國西部地區(qū)的實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù)分析來探討相關(guān)的影響機(jī)制,挖掘出一些新的影響因素,并用相應(yīng)的計(jì)量方法對模型和理論進(jìn)行改進(jìn)。 本文的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)主要是針對西部地區(qū)單獨(dú)進(jìn)行分析,運(yùn)用西部地區(qū)的省級面板數(shù)據(jù)來進(jìn)行建模和分析,通過脈沖響應(yīng)模型和截面數(shù)據(jù)的分析來探討技術(shù)進(jìn)步對就業(yè)的影響路徑,并通過交互項(xiàng)來建立技術(shù)進(jìn)步對就業(yè)量影響的實(shí)證路徑。由于我國技術(shù)進(jìn)步對就業(yè)量的影響機(jī)制并未形成一個完善的理論和實(shí)證框架,因而在探討過程中會存在一些不足的地方,主要表現(xiàn)為2011年以后的最新數(shù)據(jù)搜集不到以及沒有詳述技術(shù)進(jìn)步對就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響。 基于以上考慮,第二章介紹了技術(shù)進(jìn)步和就業(yè)的相關(guān)理論綜述。首先對技術(shù)進(jìn)步的相關(guān)概念進(jìn)行界定,說明了技術(shù)進(jìn)步的定義、分類和測度。其次,第二節(jié)對就業(yè)及相關(guān)概念進(jìn)行了解釋,并介紹了西方對于就業(yè)的相關(guān)理論。第三節(jié)闡述了技術(shù)進(jìn)步就業(yè)效應(yīng)機(jī)制中的一些中間變量和外生變量,最后介紹了技術(shù)進(jìn)步通過物質(zhì)資本、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和人力資本三個途徑對就業(yè)量的影響,從理論上研究技術(shù)進(jìn)步如何通過他們來影響就業(yè)。 第三章主要是對西部地區(qū)的技術(shù)進(jìn)步和就業(yè)量的變化趨勢進(jìn)行描述性分析。首先測算出西部地區(qū)的技術(shù)進(jìn)步指標(biāo)-全要素生產(chǎn)率,并以東部發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)作對比,得出我國西部地區(qū)技術(shù)進(jìn)步落后于東部發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)；其次對西部地區(qū)的就業(yè)狀況進(jìn)行分析,得出西部地區(qū)就業(yè)增長幅度低于東部發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū),城鎮(zhèn)登記失業(yè)率高于東部發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)。 第四章文章運(yùn)用西部十省市的省級面板數(shù)據(jù)建立模型進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn),并和發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)的結(jié)果作對比,驗(yàn)證第二章提出的結(jié)論。本章首先提出了技術(shù)進(jìn)步就業(yè)效應(yīng)實(shí)證的模型框架,通過C-D函數(shù)和企業(yè)最大化利潤模型建立基本的模型框架,加上文章主要分析的路徑變量,建立基本模型；第二節(jié)介紹了數(shù)據(jù)的來源和指標(biāo)的選��；第三節(jié)主要是對模型進(jìn)行實(shí)證,首先選取兩類地區(qū)的代表性省份形成變量的時間序列數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用向量自回歸模型和脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)來觀察技術(shù)進(jìn)步對中間變量不同期的影響,其次分析不同省份同時期技術(shù)進(jìn)步與中間變量之間的關(guān)系,從而對模型的構(gòu)建進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證。之后主要是運(yùn)用1996-2011年西部十省市和東部九省市的省級面板數(shù)據(jù)建立模型進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。通過建模我們可以得到如下結(jié)論： (1)技術(shù)進(jìn)步對西部地區(qū)和東部發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)的就業(yè)量影響均為負(fù)值,說明技術(shù)進(jìn)步對就業(yè)的破壞效應(yīng)大于補(bǔ)償效應(yīng)。 (2)技術(shù)進(jìn)步的不同路徑對不同區(qū)域的作用結(jié)果不同。資本積累抑制就業(yè),技術(shù)進(jìn)步使得資本不斷替代勞動,加劇了對就業(yè)的破壞作用,但長期由于技術(shù)的提升和經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,會帶動就業(yè)的發(fā)展,其總效應(yīng)顯示為促進(jìn)就業(yè)量的增加。技術(shù)進(jìn)步還通過產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整和優(yōu)化升級影響就業(yè)。西部地區(qū)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)相對落后,比重較小,因而技術(shù)進(jìn)步主要是通過第二產(chǎn)業(yè)來影響就業(yè)；反之,東部發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展迅猛,對就業(yè)的調(diào)節(jié)力度大,因而主要是通過第三產(chǎn)業(yè)來影響就業(yè)。技術(shù)進(jìn)步通過教育投入對就業(yè)的影響并不顯著為正,說明教育投入和人才培養(yǎng)需要一段的時滯,在此期間,教育的投入并不能明顯的促進(jìn)就業(yè)的增長。 (3)技術(shù)進(jìn)步對就業(yè)影響機(jī)制中還有一些其他變量,如實(shí)際工資水平。實(shí)際工資水平的提高會促使西部地區(qū)就業(yè)量增加,反之會使東部地區(qū)就業(yè)量減少。 第五章通過實(shí)例提出適應(yīng)西部地區(qū)的技術(shù)進(jìn)步和就業(yè)的政策措施。第-節(jié)主要列舉了西部地區(qū)技術(shù)進(jìn)步和就業(yè)息息相關(guān)的兩個重要的舉措,通過支援西部和新絲綢之路經(jīng)濟(jì)帶對西部地區(qū)的機(jī)遇和影響來反映技術(shù)進(jìn)步對就業(yè)的影響機(jī)制；第二節(jié)主要是針對上一章的實(shí)證結(jié)論和前一節(jié)的例子提出技術(shù)進(jìn)步路徑對就業(yè)量影響的政策措施。 文章最后提出了本文的結(jié)論和研究展望。隨著未來理論和實(shí)踐的不斷發(fā)展,這個古老的問題就會隨著時代的發(fā)展不斷融入新的理論內(nèi)容和實(shí)證方法。文章只分析了一些重要變量的影響,而技術(shù)進(jìn)步對就業(yè)的影響還有其他因素,諸如制度、經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境和文化等。隨著學(xué)者對技術(shù)進(jìn)步就業(yè)效應(yīng)研究方法的深入,未來的實(shí)證模型和估計(jì)方法將會更為完善,模型的建立會更加符合不同區(qū)域的實(shí)際情況。本文最后結(jié)合適應(yīng)西部地區(qū)發(fā)展的兩個具體措施來分析技術(shù)進(jìn)步對就業(yè)量的影響,對未來的政策制定和課題的深入研究有一定的實(shí)踐意義。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of the reform and opening up , the source of technological progress has been providing impetus to our country ' s economic development . From the rise of the eastern coastal area to the western development , the development trend of different degrees is presented in all regions of our country . As the resource elements endowment of each region is different , the pattern and method of its development are different .

Since entering the 21st century , technological innovation has become the most important source of economic growth . Generally speaking , the growth and innovation of economy should make society more creative and stimulate the enthusiasm of labor force . With the development of market economy , rich labor resources endowment can not be absorbed and utilized sufficiently .

In the light of the increasingly severe economic development and employment situation , it is an important question whether technological progress can drive the labor employment to become an important problem . How to effectively play the regional economic advantage , choose the appropriate technological progress way , thus the better driving the employment , is a question that needs to think , and the starting point of this paper . This paper mainly studies the influence of technological progress on the employment quantity in the western region , that is , the total number of jobs .

The research of foreign countries is based on a series of economic growth theories .

This paper is mainly based on the influence path of technology progress on employment in western region , combining the western theoretical research results with the actual situation of our country , and analyzing the characteristics of the object by differentiation contrast analysis . The main contents of this paper include the introduction and analysis of theory , the analysis of the present situation , the empirical analysis and the countermeasure analysis .

This paper focuses on the analysis of the western region , and uses the provincial panel data in the western region to model and analyze the influence of technological progress on employment through the analysis of impulse response model and cross - section data .

Based on the above considerations , the second chapter introduces the relevant theoretical review of technology progress and employment . Firstly , the definition , classification and measure of technological progress are explained , and the definition , classification and measure of technological progress are explained . Secondly , the paper introduces some intermediate variables and exogenous variables in the employment effect mechanism of technology progress .

The third chapter describes the technological progress and the change trend of the employment quantity in the western region . First , the technical progress index - total factor productivity in the western region is calculated , and compared with the developed regions in the east , the technical progress in the western region of our country lags behind the developed regions in the east ;
Secondly , the employment status of the western region is analyzed , and it is concluded that the increase of employment in the western region is lower than that in the developed regions in the east , and the registered unemployment rate in the towns is higher than that in the developed regions in the east .

In chapter 4 , the paper uses the provincial panel data set up model of ten provinces and cities to make an empirical test , and compares the results of the developed regions to validate the conclusions of the second chapter . This chapter firstly puts forward the model frame of the empirical model of technological progress employment effect , establishes the basic model framework through the C - D function and the enterprise maximum profit model , and adds the path variable of the main analysis of the article , and establishes the basic model ;
Section II introduces the source and index selection of data ;
The third section is mainly to make an empirical analysis of the model , first select the time series data of the formation variables in the representative provinces of the two types of regions , use the vector self - regression model and the impulse response function to observe the influence of the technological progress on the non - synchronization of the intermediate variables , and then analyze the relationship between the technical progress and the intermediate variables in different provinces , so as to verify the construction of the model .

( 1 ) The influence of technological progress on the employment quantity in the western and eastern developed areas is negative , which indicates that the effect of technological progress on employment is greater than that of compensation effect .

( 2 ) The different paths of technological progress have different effects on different regions . Capital accumulation suppresses employment and technological progress makes capital keep replacing labor , thus aggravating the damage to employment . However , due to the promotion of technology and the development of economy , the overall effect of the technology is to promote the increase of employment . The third industry in the western region is relatively backward and has a small proportion , so the technological progress mainly affects employment through the second industry .
On the other hand , the development of tertiary industry in the developed regions in the east is rapid , and the adjustment of employment is great , so the influence of technological progress on employment is not significantly positive through the investment of education , which indicates that the education investment and the training of talents need a period of time lag , during which the input of education cannot obviously promote the growth of employment .

( 3 ) Technical progress has some other variables , such as the actual wage level , in the employment impact mechanism . The improvement of the actual wage level will increase the employment volume in the western region , and vice versa .

In chapter 5 , we put forward the policy measures to adapt to the technological progress and employment in the western region . The second section mainly lists two important measures related to the technological progress and employment of the western region , which reflects the influence mechanism of technological progress on employment by supporting the opportunities and impacts of western and new Silk Road economic zones on the western region ;
Section II is mainly aiming at the positive conclusion of the previous chapter and the example of the previous section to put forward the policy measures for the influence of the technical progress path on the amount of employment .

With the development of the future theory and practice , the old question will gradually integrate into the new theoretical content and the empirical method with the development of the times . The article only analyzes the influence of some important variables , and the future empirical model and estimation method will be more perfect .

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F124.3;F249.21

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