發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-01 02:27

  本文選題：經(jīng)濟(jì)周期 + 傳導(dǎo)渠道��； 參考：《經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題探索》2015年07期

【摘要】：本文在充分考慮廣東省與日本經(jīng)貿(mào)往來(lái)現(xiàn)狀的條件下,對(duì)日本經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)通過(guò)貿(mào)易與金融途徑對(duì)廣東經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的影響進(jìn)行了測(cè)算。研究表明,在日本經(jīng)濟(jì)周期傳導(dǎo)模型中,廣東省內(nèi)因素的波動(dòng)依舊占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位。短期而言,廣東對(duì)日本進(jìn)出口總量以及日本廣義貨幣供應(yīng)量的變化對(duì)廣東省經(jīng)濟(jì)影響最大,而長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看,對(duì)廣東省經(jīng)濟(jì)周期影響最大的傳導(dǎo)途徑是日本對(duì)廣東外商直接投資。盡管如此,日本經(jīng)濟(jì)總量波動(dòng)對(duì)廣東省經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的直接效應(yīng)并不明顯。
[Abstract]:Under the condition of considering the current situation of economic and trade exchanges between Guangdong Province and Japan, this paper estimates the influence of Japanese economic cycle fluctuation on Guangdong economic cycle through trade and financial channels. The study shows that the fluctuation of factors in Guangdong Province is still dominant in the Japanese business cycle conduction model. In the short term, the change of Guangdong's total import and export to Japan and Japan's broad money supply has the greatest impact on Guangdong's economy, but in the long run, the most important transmission path for Guangdong's economic cycle is Japan's foreign direct investment in Guangdong. Nevertheless, the direct effect of Japan's total economic fluctuation on Guangdong Province's economic fluctuation is not obvious.
【作者單位】： 廣東財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué);
【基金】：李星主持的國(guó)家社科青年基金項(xiàng)目“美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的階段性非對(duì)稱傳導(dǎo)及應(yīng)對(duì)策略研究”(14CJL016) 教育部人文社科資助項(xiàng)目“中美經(jīng)濟(jì)周期協(xié)動(dòng)與美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期階段非對(duì)稱性傳導(dǎo)研究”(13YJC790082) 廣州市科技計(jì)劃科學(xué)研究一般項(xiàng)目“國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)周期對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的階段性非對(duì)稱沖擊路徑及效應(yīng)研究”(201510010011) 王廷惠主持的理論粵軍重大項(xiàng)目“廣東深化改革的主攻方向、重點(diǎn)難點(diǎn)和有效路徑——制度紅利視角”(LLYJ1302)的階段性成果
【分類號(hào)】：F131.3;F127

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本文編號(hào)：1827338