本文選題：鄒城市 + 水資源評(píng)價(jià)��； 參考：《山東農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：水資源評(píng)價(jià)一般是針對(duì)某一特定區(qū)域,在水資源調(diào)查的基礎(chǔ)上,研究特定區(qū)域內(nèi)的降水、蒸發(fā)、徑流諸要素的變化規(guī)律和轉(zhuǎn)化關(guān)系,闡明地表水和地下水資源數(shù)量、質(zhì)量及其時(shí)空分布特點(diǎn)。開展需水量調(diào)查和可供水量的計(jì)算,進(jìn)行水資源供需分析,尋求水資源可持續(xù)利用最優(yōu)方案,為區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)發(fā)展和國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)各部門提供服務(wù)。水資源評(píng)價(jià)是水資源合理開發(fā)利用的前提,是水資源規(guī)劃的依據(jù),也是保護(hù)和管理水資源的基礎(chǔ)。 鄒城市是全國(guó)綜合實(shí)力百?gòu)?qiáng)(縣)市、新興能源工業(yè)基地,境內(nèi)大企業(yè)眾多,對(duì)水資源量需求較大。鄒城市屬淮河流域南四湖湖東區(qū)水系,全市多年平均水資源總量約為5.35億m3,地域分布不均,人均年占有量462m3,僅為全國(guó)人均占有量的五分之一,屬于水危機(jī)區(qū)。隨著社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展,人民生活水平的不斷提高,尤其是煤電化工企業(yè)得到較大發(fā)展,支撐產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的水資源日益短缺,供需關(guān)系緊張,地下水開采承擔(dān)著較大壓力,地表水環(huán)境日趨惡化。因此,對(duì)鄒城市水資源狀況進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià),研究其水資源變化情勢(shì)十分必要。 鄒城市地表水系列和地下水系列均為1956～2005年系列,不足以滿足現(xiàn)階段的水資源綜合規(guī)劃的要求。水資源系列值的確定受多種因素的影響,其中包括該地區(qū)降雨、蒸發(fā)、降雨入滲等因素,本文通過(guò)定量描述鄒城市水資源系列與降雨系列的相關(guān)關(guān)系對(duì)鄒城市水資源系列進(jìn)行展延,結(jié)果表明,展延成果精確度較高。通過(guò)相關(guān)分析法,得到鄒城市降水系列與同時(shí)期地表水系列、地下水系列有著較強(qiáng)的相關(guān)關(guān)系,得到相關(guān)公式,通過(guò)2005～2010年的降水系列利用相關(guān)公式,展延地表水系列和地下水系列到2010年。利用展延后的資料對(duì)鄒城市水資源按流域分區(qū)和行政分區(qū)進(jìn)行水資源評(píng)價(jià),具體包括地表水資源評(píng)價(jià)、地下水資源評(píng)價(jià)、水資源總量評(píng)價(jià)、水資源可利用量評(píng)價(jià)等,通過(guò)鄒城市水資源評(píng)價(jià)成果可知鄒城市流域分區(qū)和行政分區(qū)的水資源分布和數(shù)量,對(duì)于科學(xué)規(guī)劃利用水資源有重要意義。 在水資源評(píng)價(jià)內(nèi)容的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)鄒城市水資源演變情勢(shì)進(jìn)行了研究。因?yàn)樗Y源系列具有一定的隨機(jī)性和波動(dòng)性,針對(duì)已有的水資源系列本身的特性,本文通過(guò)滑動(dòng)平均法,盡可能消除由其波動(dòng)性引起的誤差,對(duì)鄒城市未來(lái)十年水資源量進(jìn)行分析預(yù)測(cè),預(yù)測(cè)成果較為可靠為缺少水資源實(shí)測(cè)資料的水資源評(píng)價(jià)及水資源量預(yù)測(cè)提供了一條值得探索的途徑。 滑動(dòng)平均法是用一組近期的實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù)值來(lái)預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)數(shù)據(jù)值的一種常用方法。它的基本思想是：根據(jù)時(shí)間序列資料、逐項(xiàng)推移,依次計(jì)算包含一定項(xiàng)數(shù)的序時(shí)平均值,以反映長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)的方法。因此,當(dāng)時(shí)間序列的數(shù)值由于受周期變動(dòng)和隨機(jī)波動(dòng)的影響,起伏較大,不易顯示出事件的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)時(shí),使用移動(dòng)平均法可以消除這些因素的影響,顯示出事件的發(fā)展方向與趨勢(shì)(即趨勢(shì)線),然后依趨勢(shì)線分析預(yù)測(cè)序列的長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)。通過(guò)一次滑動(dòng)平均、二次滑動(dòng)平均對(duì)鄒城市未來(lái)十年水資源變化情況進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),得到變化趨勢(shì)及未來(lái)十年水資源量的預(yù)測(cè)值。
[Abstract]:Water resources assessment is generally in a particular area, based on water resources survey, the study of evaporation within a specific area of precipitation, runoff, elements of the variation and transformation relations, clarify the quantity of surface water and groundwater resources, quality and spatial distribution characteristics. To carry out the requirement investigation and calculation of water supply for analysis of the supply and demand of water resources, the optimal scheme for sustainable utilization of water resources, to provide services for regional economic, social development and national economic departments. Water resources assessment is the precondition of reasonable development and utilization of water resources, water resources is the basis for planning, which is the basis of the protection and management of water resources.
Zoucheng city is a national comprehensive strength hundred city (county), the new energy industry base, many domestic large enterprises, large demand for water resources. Zoucheng municipal Huaihe River East River Lake Nansi Lake, the city's average annual total water resources of about 535 million m3, the uneven geographical distribution, the per capita possession of 462m3, only the national per capita the possession of 1/5, belonging to the water crisis area. With the rapid development of social economy, the improvement of people's living standards, especially coal chemical enterprises have achieved great development, the growing shortage of water resources to support the development of the industry, the tension between supply and demand, bear the greater pressure of groundwater, surface water environment deterioration. Therefore, to evaluate the the situation of water resources in Zoucheng City, to study the change of water resources situation is very necessary.
Zoucheng city surface water and groundwater series series are for the 1956~2005 year series, not enough to meet the present stage of integrated water resources planning requirements. Determine the water resources value of the series is influenced by many factors, including the rainfall, evaporation, rainfall infiltration and other factors, this paper through the quantitative description of the relationship of water resources in Zoucheng city a series of series of series of rainfall and water resources of Zoucheng city extension, the results show that the extended results of high precision. Through correlation analysis, get the surface water in Zoucheng city with the same period of precipitation, groundwater series has a strong correlation, get the correlation formula by precipitation series 2005~2010 years using formula. An extension of the surface water and groundwater series until 2010. By using the delayed data of water resources in Zoucheng city according to the basin and administrative zoning evaluation of water resources, including Evaluation of surface water resources, groundwater resources evaluation, evaluation of the total water resources, available water resources evaluation, the distribution of water resources and the quantity of water resources evaluation results in Zoucheng city zoning and administrative division of Zoucheng City, has important significance for scientific planning and utilization of water resources.
On the basis of water resources evaluation on the content of water resources in Zoucheng city. The situation for the water resources series is random and the volatility of the characteristics of water resources in the series itself, through the sliding average method, as far as possible to eliminate the error caused by the fluctuation, to analyze and forecast Zoucheng City, the next ten years, the amount of water resources, the prediction results are more reliable for the prediction and evaluation of water resources lack of water resources and water resources data provides a way worthy of exploration.
The moving average method is a common method to predict future data values with a real data set to the recent value. Its basic idea is: according to the time series data, one goes on, followed by calculating the number of sequence contains a mean value method to reflect the long-term trend. Therefore, when the numerical time series due to the impact of and by periodic change and random wave fluctuation, is not easy to show the trend of events, using moving average method can eliminate the influence of these factors, showing the development direction and trend of the event (i.e. the trend line), and then according to the analysis of the long-term trend line trend forecast series. Through a moving average of two. A moving average of the change of water resources in Zoucheng city in the future ten years is forecasted, the trend and future ten years the amount of water resources value.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TV213.4

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