本文關(guān)鍵詞： 鋼鐵 需求預(yù)測 合理產(chǎn)能 產(chǎn)業(yè)布局 廢鋼　出處：《中國地質(zhì)科學(xué)院》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)是國民經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)的基礎(chǔ)性行業(yè),鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)的合理布局有助于區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)合理、有序發(fā)展。在經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型與生態(tài)文明建設(shè)的背景下,鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)面臨產(chǎn)能過剩、經(jīng)營環(huán)境惡化和環(huán)保壓力空前的問題。在此背景下,分析未來鋼鐵需求,判斷鋼鐵合理產(chǎn)能,調(diào)整優(yōu)化鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展布局,對鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級意義重大。基于此,本文從總體和區(qū)域鋼鐵合理需求分析出發(fā),在判斷未來需求的基礎(chǔ)上,分析鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)布局的影響因素,提出我國鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)區(qū)域布局建議,以期為鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級的發(fā)展方向提供一些線索。 本文運(yùn)用鋼鐵需求的“S”形規(guī)律和部門需求分析法對未來20年我國鋼鐵的合理需求進(jìn)行了分析和預(yù)測。從經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平、城市化率、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)水平等方面綜合分析發(fā)現(xiàn)：目前我國鋼鐵需求已步入峰值區(qū),峰值期間我國鋼鐵需求總量在7.3～7.5億噸之間。按照“S”形規(guī)律對我國鋼鐵需求預(yù)測結(jié)果顯示：樂觀情境下,未來鋼鐵需求趨勢將呈緩慢下降態(tài)勢,到2025年前后達(dá)到穩(wěn)定,后平臺期消費(fèi)量在6～6.6億噸之間。按照部門需求分析法對鋼鐵需求預(yù)測結(jié)果顯示,未來建筑業(yè)在鋼鐵消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)中將快速下降,到2035年降到38%,機(jī)械制造和汽車制造、以及一些戰(zhàn)略性新興產(chǎn)業(yè)對于鋼鐵的需求將會上升。 本文以經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平和鋼鐵運(yùn)輸半徑作為劃分標(biāo)準(zhǔn),將我國劃分為東部沿海地區(qū)、中部地區(qū)、西北地區(qū)和西南地區(qū)四個區(qū)域。通過對各個區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r、鋼鐵消費(fèi)水平進(jìn)行分析,運(yùn)用“S”形規(guī)律對不同區(qū)域鋼鐵消費(fèi)趨勢進(jìn)行了預(yù)測。預(yù)測結(jié)果表明：東部沿海地區(qū)已經(jīng)處于鋼鐵需求的峰值區(qū)間,未來該地區(qū)鋼鐵需求量將會保持著相對較高的水平,但需求占比會有所下降；其它三個區(qū)域鋼鐵需求還會呈較快的增長趨勢,中部地區(qū)、西南地區(qū)和西北地區(qū)三個地區(qū)將在2017～2020年前后先后達(dá)到鋼鐵需求的頂點,頂點時鋼鐵人均消費(fèi)量分別在470～490kg左右、320kg左右和350～380kg左右。 通過對我國鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)布局的現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行剖析,發(fā)現(xiàn)目前我國鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)呈現(xiàn)東多西少、北重南輕,內(nèi)陸多、沿海沿江少,缺水地區(qū)鋼鐵產(chǎn)能比重大,資源依托為主的格局和鋼廠城市型布局依然明顯幾個特征。通過對影響鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)布局的影響因素進(jìn)行詳細(xì)分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)目前影響鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)布局的決定性因素是鐵礦石、廢鋼等資源因素和市場需求因素,而環(huán)境因素對未來鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)的合理布局會起到較大的作用。 本文分析了我國鋼鐵產(chǎn)品的出口趨勢,結(jié)合需求預(yù)測的結(jié)果,判斷了未來我國鋼鐵合理產(chǎn)能�？傮w來說,我國保持8-9億噸的鋼鐵產(chǎn)能是相對合理的,但生產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)中,電爐鋼的產(chǎn)能占比將會發(fā)生較大變化。通過對我國未來的廢鋼供應(yīng)能力進(jìn)行分析和預(yù)測,判斷2020年以后我國廢鋼資源的供應(yīng)能力將會以較快速度增長,屆時,電爐鋼產(chǎn)能也將較快提升,預(yù)計到2035年,我國電爐鋼產(chǎn)能占比將達(dá)到55%。 依據(jù)不同區(qū)域的需求水平和出口能力分析,本文也對不同區(qū)域的合理產(chǎn)能布局進(jìn)行了判斷,未來東部沿海地區(qū)鋼鐵產(chǎn)能將會有所下降,并將大幅轉(zhuǎn)變生產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu),預(yù)計到2035年,東部沿海地區(qū)電爐鋼產(chǎn)能占地區(qū)總產(chǎn)能比例將達(dá)到70%左右；中部、西南和西北地區(qū)的區(qū)域內(nèi)鋼鐵產(chǎn)能將會適量擴(kuò)張,但主要是通過承接通過東部沿海地區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移的方式增加產(chǎn)能,產(chǎn)能擴(kuò)張以滿足本區(qū)域內(nèi)需求為主。
[Abstract]:The iron and steel industry is the foundation of the national economy and the construction industry, the reasonable layout of the steel industry will contribute to regional economic and reasonable, orderly development. In the economic transformation and the construction of ecological civilization under the background of iron and steel industry faces overcapacity, the deterioration of the operating environment and the environmental pressure of unprecedented problems. Under this background, analysis of the future steel demand, judgment reasonable steel production capacity, adjust and optimize the layout of the development of iron and steel industry, transformation and upgrading of great significance for the iron and steel industry. Based on this, this article from the overall and reasonable demand for regional steel is analyzed, based on the judgment of the future demand, analysis of the factors influencing the distribution of iron and steel industry, iron and steel industry put forward regional layout suggestions, in order to provide some clues for the iron and steel industry restructuring and development direction of upgrading.
Analyze and forecast analysis of China's steel demand a reasonable method for the next 20 years the demand for steel "S" shape and the law department needs. From the level of economic development, city rate, industrial structure, comprehensive analysis of infrastructure construction and other aspects of the level of that at present China's steel demand has entered the peak area, peak during the period of the total steel demand in China is between 7.3 to 7.5 tons. In accordance with the "S" shaped law on China's steel demand forecasting results show that the optimistic scenario, the future steel demand trend will slow decline, before and after 2025 to stabilize after the platform period consumption in 6 to 6.6 tons. According to department needs analysis the prediction results of steel demand, the future of the construction industry in the rapid decline in the consumption structure of iron and steel, to 2035 dropped to 38%, machinery manufacturing and automobile manufacturing, as well as some strategic emerging industries for steel The demand for iron will rise.
In this paper, the level of economic development and steel transportation radius as the division standard, divides China into the eastern coastal region, central region, four regions in Northwest and southwest regions. Based on the regional economic development in the various analysis of steel consumption level, using the "S" shape distribution has been predicted for steel consumption trends in different regions. The forecast results show that the eastern coastal area is at the peak interval of steel demand, the future steel demand in the region will maintain a relatively high level, but the demand for decline; the other three areas of steel demand will increase rapidly, the central region, three areas in the Southwest and northwest regions after 2017~2020 years the demand for steel has reached the peak, peak steel consumption per capita in 470 ~ 490kg, about 320kg and about 350 ~ 380kg.
Through the analysis of present situation of China's iron and steel industry layout, found that China's iron and steel industry in the east than in West, North South light, inland, coastal, arid areas of iron and steel production capacity than the major, relying on resources as the main pattern of mills and city layout is still obvious several characteristics. Through the detailed analysis of influencing factors influence of iron and steel industry layout, found that the decisive factors influencing the distribution of iron and steel industry is iron ore, scrap steel and other factors resource factors and market demand, and the rational distribution of environmental factors on the future of the steel industry will play a greater role.
This paper analyzes the trend of China's exports of steel products, combined with the demand forecasting results, determine the future of China's steel production capacity is reasonable. Overall, our country is 8-9 tons of steel production capacity is relatively reasonable, but the production structure, electric steel production accounted for more than the changes will occur. By analyzing and forecasting for the future of China's ability to judge the scrap supply, after 2020 China scrap resources supply capacity will be at a faster pace, then, EAF steel production capacity will rapidly increase, is expected to 2035, China's production of electric steel accounted for up to 55%.
Based on the analysis of different regional levels of demand and export capacity, the reasonable production layout on the different areas of judgment, the future of eastern coastal areas of iron and steel production capacity will decline, and will significantly change the structure of production, is expected to 2035, the eastern coastal areas of EAF steel production accounted for the total production area ratio will reach about 70%; central, southwest and in the northwest region of iron and steel production capacity will be the amount of expansion, but mainly to increase productivity by undertaking the industrial transfer of the eastern coastal areas, the expansion of production capacity to meet the demand in the region for the Lord.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國地質(zhì)科學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.31

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