本文關鍵詞： 耕地土壤水資源承載力 多目標優(yōu)化 河北省 指標體系 閾值 可變模糊　出處：《河北農業(yè)大學》2014年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：河北省是我國水資源極度短缺的省份之一,在現狀條件下全省水資源的缺口達到50~60億m3。南水北調工程的實施后,雖然在一定程度上可以緩解水資源緊張局面,但不能完全解決河北省水資源短缺問題。另一方面,河北省有豐富的土壤水資源可以利用。根據河北省土壤水資源評價結果,全省一般年份可利用的土壤水資源為231億m3,再加上170億m3的灌溉水量,全省可利用的土壤水量約為401億m3,數量可觀。因此,在水資源嚴重短缺、農業(yè)用水緊張的情況下,合理開發(fā)利用土壤水資源,對保證糧食安全、提高農民生活水平、維持水資源可持續(xù)利用、維持良好的生態(tài)環(huán)境及促進河北省農業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展意義重大。本文將對耕地土壤水資源承載力的概念和內涵進行界定,對河北省及7個土壤水資源分區(qū)、11個行政分區(qū)內耕地土壤水資源承載力進行計算、評價,主要研究成果如下:(1)本文將資源承載力的理論引入到土壤水資源的研究中,界定了耕地土壤水資源承載力的概念,即當耕地內土壤中水、肥、氣、熱等元素相互協調,在自然條件的一元模式(只考慮天然降水,如旱地農業(yè)、旱稻田等)或自然—人工灌溉的二元模式(考慮自然降水和灌溉,如水澆地及灌溉水田區(qū)域等)下,在一定社會發(fā)展階段的經濟水平和科學技術水平條件下,某一區(qū)域耕地內的土壤水資源能夠持續(xù)支撐該地區(qū)農業(yè)種植業(yè)發(fā)展的能力;明確了耕地土壤水資源承載力的承載對象主要為農業(yè)種植業(yè);分析了耕地土壤水資源承載力的承載模式、時空變化、利用形式、社會經濟內涵和可持續(xù)性內涵;在闡述水資源承載力與土壤水資源承載力的異同基礎上,論述了耕地土壤水資源承載力的可持續(xù)性、有限性、動態(tài)性、可調控性、對降水的依賴性,以及承載對象簡單、承載模式多樣等特性。(2)根據耕地土壤水資源承載力內涵和特點,建立耕地土壤水資源承載力的多目標計算模型。以農業(yè)經濟產值最大、糧食總產量最大和農業(yè)用水比例最低分別建立目標函數,以農業(yè)種植結構、水資源、土壤水資源及其他作為約束條件,通過加權法建立綜合目標函數,并采用線性規(guī)劃方法對綜合目標進行目標優(yōu)化。(3)根據耕地土壤水資源承載力的特點及影響因素,建立耕地土壤水資源承載力評價指標體系,并確定評價指標的閾值及權重。指標體系由供水指標、用水指標、管理指標和效益指標共4個一級指標及17個二級指標構成。指標的閾值通過調查國家、省、市相關的政策、法規(guī)及規(guī)劃、收集有關的國家規(guī)范或行業(yè)規(guī)范、參考發(fā)達國家或國內發(fā)達地區(qū)的發(fā)展水平、對相關年鑒統(tǒng)計數據回歸分析并進行趨勢外推及專家經驗法等方法確定。為了詳細描述耕地土壤水資源承載力的狀態(tài),本文根據農業(yè)節(jié)水技術發(fā)展水平將承載力分為一級、二級和三級,確定了每個級別指標等級區(qū)間,為耕地土壤水資源承載力的定量評價提供了標準。結合調查問卷的調研成果,采用二元比較模糊決策分析法確定各評價指標的權重。(4)應用耕地土壤水資源承載力計算模型對河北省耕地土壤水資源承載力計算。計算中考慮了2020年(近期)和2030年(遠期)兩個規(guī)劃年,平水年(P=50%)和偏枯年(P=75%)兩種降水頻率,低、中、高三種節(jié)水技術水平,共建立12個方案。隨后,采用模糊可變評價方法對河北省各個方案進行評價,確定每個方案中耕地土壤水資源承載力的等級。評價結果為:到2020年,各個耕地土壤水資源承載力方案都可以達到二級,屬于“方案合格,能夠適應于當地區(qū)域經濟發(fā)展”,到2030年,平水年(P=50%)內的各個方案可達到一級,屬于“方案良好,比較適應于當地區(qū)域經濟發(fā)展”,偏枯年(P=75%)內各個方案仍屬于二級,但較2020年有所提高。通過分析近期和遠期的發(fā)展基礎和條件,在保證河北省農業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展背景下,提出河北省2020年(近期)和2030年(遠期)的發(fā)展方案。(5)應用耕地土壤水資源承載力計算模型對7個土壤水資源分區(qū)及11個行政分區(qū)的承載力進行計算。計算中考慮了2020年(近期)和2030年(遠期)兩個規(guī)劃年,平水年(P=50%)和偏枯年(P=75%)兩種降水頻率,對各土壤水資源分區(qū)內、各行政區(qū)的農業(yè)生產總值、糧食總產量、土壤水資源利用量、常規(guī)水資源利用量、灌溉面積及各類土壤水資源利用技術的發(fā)展面積進行計算及對比分析。(6)對河北省各縣市土壤水資源量、土壤水資源利用量及利用潛力進行計算,在現有相關研究成果、經驗以及種植方式基礎上,對效果良好的技術和管理措施進行了分析和總結,從工程、管理和生物三方面提出了提高耕地土壤水資源承載力的措施。
[Abstract]:Hebei province is one of the severe shortage of water resources in our province, to implement 50~60 billion m3. water diversion project in the province's water resources under the current conditions of the gap, although to a certain extent, can alleviate the shortage of water resources situation, but can not completely solve the problem of shortage of water resources in Hebei province. On the other hand, Hebei province soil abundant water resources can make use of soil water resources in Hebei province. According to the evaluation results, the general year available soil water resources in the province is 23 billion 100 million m3, plus 17 billion m3 of irrigation water, soil water utilization in the province can be approximately 40 billion 100 million m3, a considerable number of. Therefore, in a serious shortage of water resources, agricultural water shortage under the condition of reasonable exploitation and utilization of soil water resources, to ensure food security, improve the living standards of farmers, to maintain the sustainable utilization of water resources, maintain good ecological environment and promote the sustainable development of agriculture in Hebei Province Of great significance. This paper defines the concept and connotation of the bearing capacity of soil water resources in Hebei Province, and 7 soil water resource zoning evaluation of 11 administrative regions in the farmland soil water resources carrying capacity is calculated, and the main research results are as follows: (1) the resources carrying capacity theory is introduced to study soil water resources, defines the concept of soil water resources carrying capacity of cultivated land, when the soil water in the cultivated land, fertilizer, gas, heat and other elements, an element model in natural conditions (including natural precipitation, such as dry farming, Paddyfield etc.) or natural - artificial irrigation mode of two yuan (consider the natural precipitation and irrigation, such as irrigation and irrigated paddy field area), to a certain stage of social development of the economic level and the level of science and technology under the condition of soil water resources in a region of cultivated land can continue to support agriculture in the region The ability for the development of the industry; bearing object clear soil water resources carrying capacity of cultivated land is the main agricultural crop; analysis of soil water resources carrying capacity of cultivated land, temporal and spatial variation, the social economic form, connotation and meaning of sustainability; differences in foundation of water resources carrying capacity and water resources carrying capacity of the soil and discusses the sustainability of soil water resources carrying capacity of cultivated land is limited, dynamic, adjustable, dependent on precipitation, as well as carrying objects of simple bearing pattern diversity. (2) according to soil water resources carrying capacity connotation and characteristics, the establishment of multi-objective soil water resources carrying capacity of cultivated land the maximum calculation model. An agricultural economy value, the total grain yield maximum and the proportion of agricultural water minimum functions are established respectively, planting structure, agricultural water resources, soil water and other resources as constraints, To establish a comprehensive objective function by weighting method, and by using the linear programming method for multi-objective optimization of comprehensive target. (3) according to the characteristics and influencing factors of soil water resources carrying capacity, the establishment of farmland soil water resources bearing capacity evaluation index system, and determine the threshold value and the weight of evaluation index. The index system consists of water supply index, water index management index and benefit index, a total of 4 first grade indexes and 17 level two indexes. The index threshold through the investigation of country, province, city related policies, regulations and planning, collection of national standard or industry related regulations, development level of developed countries or developed areas in China, the related statistical yearbook regression analysis and determine the trend extrapolation and expert experience method. In order to soil water resources carrying capacity of cultivated land is described in detail, based on the development of agricultural water-saving technology level will be bearing The force is divided into Grade A, grade two and grade three, determining each index grade level range, provides a standard for quantitative evaluation of bearing capacity of soil water resources. Combined with the research results of the questionnaire, using two element fuzzy decision analysis method to determine the weights of evaluation indexes. (4) the calculation model of soil water cultivated land resources in Hebei province bearing capacity calculation of bearing capacity of soil water resources. Application of land considered in 2020 (recent) and 2030 (forward) two year plan, 2002 (P=50%) and dry years (P=75%) of two kinds of precipitation frequency, low, high, three kinds of water-saving technology, a total of 12 a scheme. Then, using the variable fuzzy evaluation method to evaluate Hebei province each scheme, determine the soil water resources carrying capacity of cultivated land in each program level. The evaluation results are: by 2020, all can reach two level soil water resource carrying capacity of cultivated land is different, In the scheme of "qualified, able to adapt to the economic development of the region", to 2030, 2002 (P=50%) in each scheme can reach a level, "a good solution, belonging to adapt to the economic development of the region, dry years (P=75%) in each scheme still belongs to the two level, but has increased compared to 2020 through the analysis of development basis and conditions of short-term and long-term, in order to ensure the sustainable development of agriculture in Hebei Province under the background of Hebei Province, 2020 (recent) and 2030 (forward) development plan. (5) bearing capacity calculation model of 7 soil water resource zoning and 11 administrative divisions of the calculation of bearing capacity of soil water application of land resources. In the calculations of 2020 (recent) and 2030 (forward) two year plan, 2002 (P=50%) and dry years (P=75%) of two kinds of precipitation frequency, the soil water resource zoning in the administrative areas of agricultural GDP, total grain output The amount, quantity and utilization of soil water resources, conventional water resources utilization, analysis and calculation and comparison of irrigation area and utilization of soil water resources of various types of technology development area. (6) on soil water resources in Hebei Province, soil water resources utilization and utilization potential are calculated in the existing related research results and experience on the basis of planting methods, effective technology and management measures are analyzed and summarized from the project, proposed to improve the bearing capacity of soil water resources land management measures and three biological aspects.

【學位授予單位】：河北農業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：S152.7

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