發(fā)布時間：2018-01-05 06:36

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：江漢平原城鎮(zhèn)化與耕地保護(hù)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展研究　出處：《華中師范大學(xué)》2015年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 城鎮(zhèn)化 耕地 耦合關(guān)系 Granger因果檢驗(yàn) 江漢平原

【摘要】：城鎮(zhèn)化的實(shí)質(zhì)是一種生產(chǎn)要素流動,是由人口、土地和資金的有序流動產(chǎn)生。城鎮(zhèn)的形成以及在空間上的地理分布往往是由人口、土地和資金三大城鎮(zhèn)化驅(qū)動因素的流動和流轉(zhuǎn)能力所決定的。隨著生產(chǎn)力的提高,經(jīng)濟(jì)的加速發(fā)展,社會的不斷進(jìn)步,三大因素的流動速度不斷加快,使得城鎮(zhèn)化的發(fā)展和演變不斷加速變化。統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)顯示：1978-2010年全國城鎮(zhèn)人口總量由1.73億增加到6.66億,年均增長0.15億；城鎮(zhèn)化水平由17.92%提高到49.70%,年均增長0.99%；城市個數(shù)由190個增加到657個,年均增加15個,建制鎮(zhèn)的數(shù)量增速較快,1978年建制鎮(zhèn)數(shù)量為2000多個,到2010年增加到1.94萬個,年均增加539個。城鎮(zhèn)化作為我國社會經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要推動力的確在一定程度上提高了社會生產(chǎn)力,改善了人民居住環(huán)境與生活質(zhì)量,但是,城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展自身受其體制約束與政策導(dǎo)向等因素的影響,使得我國城鄉(xiāng)間差距進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大,人地關(guān)系日趨緊張。與此同時,城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展失速所帶來的弊端也在日益凸顯,城鄉(xiāng)二元矛盾加劇,耕地面積減少,城鎮(zhèn)質(zhì)量下降,糧食生產(chǎn)安全受到嚴(yán)重的威脅。在此現(xiàn)勢條件下,如何協(xié)調(diào)城鄉(xiāng)關(guān)系,確保耕地資源保護(hù)與城鎮(zhèn)化可持續(xù)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展成為了當(dāng)前亟待解決的問題。本文選擇江漢平原作為研究對象,江漢平原是湖北省人口密度最大,經(jīng)濟(jì)最富活力的區(qū)域,也是大武漢城市群發(fā)展的重要腹地,其30多年來的城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展與全國的城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展相比有其自身的特征。隨著近年來江漢平原區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會的高速發(fā)展,尤其是城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展進(jìn)程的加快,人口壓力與日俱增,江漢平原內(nèi)部各縣市城市邊界的擴(kuò)大,城市化的飛速發(fā)展、建成區(qū)面積逐步擴(kuò)大在一定程度上使得耕地面積日益減少。當(dāng)前快速的城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展?fàn)顩r已明顯的改變了江漢平原的土地利用狀況,尤其是建設(shè)占用耕地資源情況突出,伴隨而來的土地污染問題嚴(yán)重、人地矛盾不斷尖銳等問題深刻的影響著區(qū)域的生態(tài)狀況,使得耕地保護(hù)的難度進(jìn)一步加大。在此現(xiàn)實(shí)背景下,深入探討江漢平原近30年來城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展進(jìn)程與耕地資源的耦合關(guān)系,利用計算機(jī)分析與地理空間分析研究方法定量化的研究城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展對江漢平原耕地資源變化的影響,系統(tǒng)分析其變化的驅(qū)動機(jī)理。以縣域?yàn)閱挝?分別對城鎮(zhèn)化與耕地資源的時空特征演變展開研究,構(gòu)建城鎮(zhèn)化與耕地資源的重心模型、城鎮(zhèn)化與耕地集約利用度的協(xié)整模型、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)模型、城鄉(xiāng)人口與建設(shè)用地的“脫鉤”理論構(gòu)建協(xié)調(diào)度模型；采用空間分析方法以及空間統(tǒng)計學(xué)等空間特征研究手段,應(yīng)用計量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、數(shù)理統(tǒng)計、多元回歸、主成分分析、協(xié)整理論、Granger因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)等方法對研究區(qū)的城鎮(zhèn)化與耕地資源時序動態(tài)演變特征與驅(qū)動力成因機(jī)制進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)研究；借助ArcGIS、SPSS20等軟件,對城鎮(zhèn)化與耕地資源的時空演變、城鎮(zhèn)化與耕地重心的演變路徑、城鄉(xiāng)地區(qū)人口與土地變化的時空耦合關(guān)系與機(jī)理演變過程進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)研究,分析其成因機(jī)制、協(xié)調(diào)關(guān)系及類型劃分,構(gòu)建城鎮(zhèn)化與耕地資源的協(xié)調(diào)度模型進(jìn)一步計算出江漢平原的城鎮(zhèn)化與耕地資源的協(xié)調(diào)度；以縣域?yàn)閱挝?將城鎮(zhèn)化與耕地資源的空間耦合關(guān)系進(jìn)行分類,按照劃分的城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展類型提出差別化的國土政策建議,從而更好的解決現(xiàn)階段城鎮(zhèn)化高速發(fā)展與耕地資源過度消耗之間的矛盾；并為新型城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展中土地利用方式優(yōu)化、土地資源優(yōu)化配置、耕地資源切實(shí)保護(hù)提供有效的決策支持。本文共分為八章：第一章為緒論。緒論分為兩個部分,第一部分闡明本文的研究背景與研究意義；從國內(nèi)外有關(guān)城鎮(zhèn)化的內(nèi)涵研究,城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展階段特征與城鎮(zhèn)化評價指標(biāo)體系構(gòu)建的研究現(xiàn)狀,城鎮(zhèn)化與耕地資源保護(hù)協(xié)調(diào)度分析的研究進(jìn)展等方面著手展開研究綜述。第二部分闡述了本研究的理論基礎(chǔ)。第二章為研究理論基礎(chǔ)。本章節(jié)對研究的理論基礎(chǔ)做了系統(tǒng)闡述。第三章為研究方案。本章節(jié)簡述研究的目的與方法,并確立本次研究的技術(shù)路線；以經(jīng)濟(jì)地理學(xué)、區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、土地科學(xué)、地統(tǒng)計學(xué)等相關(guān)理論、方法為支撐,采用定量化的實(shí)證研究,綜合運(yùn)用地理信息系統(tǒng)(GIS)和遙感(RS)等現(xiàn)代計算手段,充分利用歷史資料、統(tǒng)計年鑒、遙感影像等真實(shí)數(shù)據(jù)資源,從時間序列著手開展本項(xiàng)研究。同時,本章節(jié)介紹了本次研究的主要內(nèi)容包括有：江漢平原1980-2010城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展及驅(qū)動機(jī)制研究；城鎮(zhèn)化與耕地資源變化空間協(xié)調(diào)度分析；1995-2010江漢平原城鎮(zhèn)化與耕地資源空間耦合關(guān)系分析。最后,對本次研究的研究區(qū)范圍界定與研究區(qū)概況進(jìn)行了介紹。第四章為耕地資源與城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀及時空演變分析。研究分為五個部分：第一部分,首先確定了城鎮(zhèn)化的內(nèi)涵。第二部分,選取江漢平原1980年、1985年、1990年、1995年、2000年、2005年、2010年7個年度的截面數(shù)據(jù)分析研究區(qū)各縣市城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展的時空演變特征以及空間差異。第三部分為縣域土地城鎮(zhèn)化時空演變分析,人均城鎮(zhèn)化面積選取1995年、2000年、2005年、2010年這四年的截面數(shù)據(jù),按照每五年一個時間節(jié)點(diǎn)進(jìn)行研究。第四部分為江漢平原1980-2010年的耕地數(shù)量變化分析,研究耕地的現(xiàn)狀與變化趨勢。第五部分為江漢平原縣域城鎮(zhèn)化區(qū)域差異分析,利用變異系數(shù)法測算江漢平原1980年、1985年、1990年、1995年、2000年、2005年、2010年的各縣的城鎮(zhèn)化率差異度。最后一部分為小結(jié),總結(jié)本章研究內(nèi)容并對江漢平原建設(shè)用地面積增長率與耕地面積增長率的關(guān)系做進(jìn)一步分析。第五章為耕地資源與城鎮(zhèn)化協(xié)調(diào)時空變化研究。對耕地資源的時空變化研究是基于耕地資源與城鎮(zhèn)化重心演變路徑分析,運(yùn)用重心模型對江漢平原1995年、2000年、2005年、2010年的總?cè)丝凇⑷丝诔擎?zhèn)化、耕地資源進(jìn)行重心位移變化分析,同時進(jìn)行了重心位移路徑的比較分析,研究表明：城鎮(zhèn)化重心軌跡與人口重心的演變軌跡從方向上看呈基本一致的演變路徑。城鎮(zhèn)化重心的移動方向整體呈現(xiàn)由西南向東北方向移動的趨勢,人口重心的移動方向則整體呈現(xiàn)由西向東,東進(jìn)南移的變化態(tài)勢。城鎮(zhèn)化重心的移動方向整體呈現(xiàn)由西南向東北方向移動的趨勢,而耕地重心的移動方向則整體呈現(xiàn)由東向西,西進(jìn)南移的變化態(tài)勢。在總體移動方向上,江漢平原耕地重心的空間演變軌跡與城鎮(zhèn)化比呈現(xiàn)出完全相反的趨勢。通過對江漢平原耕地資源與城鎮(zhèn)化時序協(xié)調(diào)變化分析的基礎(chǔ)上,應(yīng)用脫鉤理論及其相關(guān)模型研究江漢平原耕地資源與城鎮(zhèn)化空間耦合關(guān)系,研究人口城鎮(zhèn)化與土地城鎮(zhèn)化的空間耦合關(guān)系特征及農(nóng)業(yè)勞動力人口與耕地面積的并依據(jù)空間耦合特征,然后將兩者的耦合關(guān)系進(jìn)行疊加組合,得出1995-2010江漢平原城鄉(xiāng)人口與城鄉(xiāng)土地空間耦合類型,以縣域?yàn)閱挝粍澐制漶詈项愋头謪^(qū)。以江漢平原縣域?yàn)閱挝?可將城鄉(xiāng)人口與城鄉(xiāng)土地空間耦合類型劃分為12種類型。第六章為城鎮(zhèn)化與耕地資源變化驅(qū)動力分析及因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)。本章研究內(nèi)容包括：江漢平原城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展驅(qū)動機(jī)制分析,主要對城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展進(jìn)程與特征以及城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展驅(qū)動機(jī)制進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)研究；對江漢平原1980-2010年耕地集約利用與城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展進(jìn)行協(xié)整分析與Granger因果檢驗(yàn),研究表明：耕地集約利用指數(shù)和城鎮(zhèn)化率之間存在單向因果關(guān)系,即城鎮(zhèn)化率的提高是促進(jìn)耕地集約利用水平提高的Granger原因,而耕地集約利用指數(shù)變化不是城鎮(zhèn)化率變化的Granger原因。研究結(jié)果表明：城鎮(zhèn)化的發(fā)展與耕地集約利用存在長期協(xié)整,但短期內(nèi)二者交互脅迫,城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展對耕地集約利用率的傳導(dǎo)作用將滯后3期,并且有逐步放大的態(tài)勢；第七章為江漢平原城鎮(zhèn)化與耕地保護(hù)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展差別化國土政策建議。本章首先歸納總結(jié)了近30年來江漢平原城鎮(zhèn)化與耕地保護(hù)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展中存在的問題；以城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展研究的相關(guān)理論基礎(chǔ)為指導(dǎo),全面把握我國城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程中耕地資源的現(xiàn)狀和發(fā)展趨勢,以本文第四章、第五章的分析結(jié)論為基礎(chǔ),提出了較為深入和系統(tǒng)的江漢平原縣域地區(qū)差別化國土政策建議,以期化解城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展與耕地資源保護(hù)之間的矛盾關(guān)系,為城鎮(zhèn)化與耕地保護(hù)的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展提供科學(xué)化、合理化、可持續(xù)的智力支持、政策參考與決策依據(jù)。第八章為研究結(jié)論與展望。本章總結(jié)了文章的主要研究結(jié)論與創(chuàng)新點(diǎn),并結(jié)合本文的不足之處做了該研究領(lǐng)域的研究展望。
[Abstract]:The essence of urbanization is a flow of production factors, by the population, the orderly flow of land and funds. Urban formation and geographical distribution in space is often determined by the population of driving factors of land and capital in three big cities of the flow and circulation ability. With the increase of productivity, accelerate economic development the progress of the society, the flow speed of the three factors is accelerating, making the development and evolution of urbanization accelerated changes. Statistics show: 1978-2010 national urban population increased from 173 million to 666 million, with an average annual growth rate of 15 million; the level of urbanization increased from 17.92% to 49.70%, with an average annual growth rate of 0.99%; the number of city increase from 190 to 657, with an average annual increase of 15, the number of towns of rapid growth, the number of towns in 1978 more than 2000, to 2010 increased to 19 thousand and 400, an average annual increase of 539 urbanization. As an important driving force for China's economic and social development is to a certain extent, improve the social productive forces, improve the people's living environment and quality of life, but the influence factors of the development of urbanization itself by its institutional constraints and policy guidance, making China's urban-rural gap is widening, the increasingly tense relationship between people and land. At the same time, malpractice the development of urbanization brought about by the stall in two yuan in urban and rural areas has become increasingly prominent, intensified contradictions, reduction of arable land, urban quality decreased, grain production safety is seriously threatened. In the current conditions, such as how to coordinate the relationship between urban and rural areas, to ensure the protection of arable land resources and urbanization sustainable development has become an urgent problem to be solved. This choice of Jianghan Plain as the research object, the Jianghan Plain is the largest population density of Hubei Province, the most dynamic economic region, is the development of the city group of Wuhan The important hinterland, its 30 years of development of urbanization compared with the urbanization development across the country has its own characteristics. In recent years, Jianghan plain region economy, the rapid development of society, especially in speeding up the development process of urbanization, the population pressure in the Jianghan Plain grow with each passing day, each county city boundary expansion, rapid development the city, the built-up area gradually expanded the cultivated area to a certain extent is reduced. The current urbanization development quickly has significantly changed the status of land use in Jianghan Plain, especially the construction of the occupation of cultivated land resources is prominent, with the land and pollution to the serious contradiction between people and land has sharp problems deeply the effect of ecological condition in the area, the cultivated land protection more difficult. Under this realistic background, in-depth study of Jianghan Plain in recent 30 years in the development of Urbanization The coupling relationship between history and cultivated land resources, the use of computer analysis and spatial analysis of the influence of urbanization on the quantitative methods of cultivated land resources in Jianghan Plain, the driving mechanism of the change of system analysis. The county as a unit, respectively. The spatial characteristics of urbanization and cultivated land resources evolution research center of gravity model town with the cultivated land resources, the cointegration model of urbanization and cultivated land intensive use, the impulse response function model, urban and rural population and construction land "decoupling" theory to construct the coordination model; Study on spatial characteristics by means of spatial analysis methods and spatial statistics, applied econometrics, mathematical statistics, multiple regression, principal component analysis, cointegration theory, evolution characteristics of urbanization and cultivated land resources dynamic Granger causality test method in the study area and the driving force of the machine For systematic study; with the help of ArcGIS, SPSS20 and other software, the spatial and temporal evolution of urbanization and cultivated land resources, the evolution path of the center of gravity of urbanization and cultivated land, temporal coupling relationship and mechanism of urban and rural area population and land change evolution process is studied systematically, and analyzes the reasons and types of division mechanism, relationship coordination, urban construction of cultivated land resources and the coordination degree model to calculate the coordination degree between urbanization and cultivated land resources in Jianghan Plain; the county as a unit, the spatial coupling relationship between urbanization and cultivated land classification, land policy suggestions are put forward according to the different types of the urbanization development division, in order to better solve contradiction at the present stage the rapid development of urbanization and cultivated land resources excessive consumption between; and for the development of new urbanization in land use optimization, optimal allocation of land resources, cultivated land resources cut Is to protect the effective decision support. This paper is divided into eight chapters: the first chapter is the introduction. The introduction is divided into two parts, the first part expounds the research background and research significance; from the connotation of research on urbanization at home and abroad, the research status of evaluation index system of urbanization development stage characteristics and the urbanization. The coordination degree of urban land resource protection and research progress in aspects such as research review. The second part expounds the theoretical basis of this study. The second chapter is the theoretical basis of the research. This chapter is the theoretical basis of this study made a systematic elaboration. The third chapter is the research project. This section describes the research purpose and methods. And to establish the technical route of this research; in economic geography, regional economics, land science, statistics and other related theories, methods to support empirical research using quantitative, comprehensive use of land Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) and other modern calculation tools, make full use of the historical data, statistical yearbook, remote sensing image data resources, from the time series to carry out the study. At the same time, this chapter introduces the main contents of this study include: research and development of driving mechanism of Jianghan Plain 1980-2010 town; urbanization spatial change of cultivated land resources and coordination degree analysis; analysis of 1995-2010 towns in Jianghan Plain and cultivated land resources spatial coupling relationship. Finally, the study area scope were introduced and the general situation of the study area. The fourth chapter is about the evolution of cultivated land resources and urbanization development status and spatial analysis. The research is divided into five parts: the first part, first determine the connotation of urbanization. In the second part, from 1980 to 1985, 1990 in Jianghan Plain, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, section 7 annual number According to the difference of temporal and spatial evolution characteristics analysis in urban development research area and space. The third part is the land of the county town spatial temporal evolution analysis, the per capita area of urbanization from 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, the four years of study in accordance with section data, every five years a time node. The fourth part is the analysis of cultivated land changes in the number of Jianghan Plain 1980-2010 years, the present situation and the change tendency of cultivated land. The fifth part is the analysis of Jianghan plain county urbanization regional difference, using variation coefficient method to calculate the Jianghan Plain in 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, the county's urbanization rate difference. The last part is the summary, summary the contents of this chapter and the Jianghan plain construction land area growth rate between the growth rate and the cultivated area for further analysis. The fifth chapter is the cultivated land resources and urbanization coordination Study on temporal and spatial variation. Study on spatial and temporal changes of cultivated land resources is based on cultivated land resources and urbanization center evolution path analysis, using the gravity model of Jianghan Plain in 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010 the total population, population urbanization, analysis of gravity displacement changes of cultivated land resources, at the same time were analyzed. The study shows that the center of gravity displacement path the evolution of urbanization and population center of gravity locus ourdirection is evolution path consistent. The moving direction of urbanization focus of the overall presentation of moving from southwest to northeast trend, the moving direction of the overall population center increased from west to East, South east trend. The direction of movement of the center of gravity of the urbanization the overall presentation of moving from southwest to northeast trend, while the moving direction of the center of cultivated land is showing the overall trend from east to west, South West in total. Body movement direction, the focus of farmland in the Jianghan Plain space evolution and urbanization ratio showed opposite trend. Based on the cultivated land resources in Jianghan Plain and urbanization coordinated change analysis on the application of the decoupling theory and related model of Jianghan Plain farming resources and urban spatial coupling relationship, and based on the spatial coupling research on the characteristics of population urbanization and land urbanization spatial characteristics and coupling relationship of agricultural labor force population and cultivated land area, and then the combination of the coupling relationship, the 1995-2010 in Jianghan Plain, the original urban and rural population and rural and urban land spatial coupling type, by the unit division of the coupling type partition. In Jianghan Plain County as a unit. We can divide the urban and rural population and urban land spatial coupling types into 12 types. The sixth chapter is the changes of urbanization and cultivated land resources driving force Analysis and causality test. The research content includes: analysis of driving mechanism of urbanization development in Jianghan Plain, mainly on the development process of urbanization and urbanization development characteristics and driving mechanism were studied; according to the research on the cointegration analysis and Granger causality test, and the development of urbanization 1980-2010 years of intensive use of cultivated land in Jianghan Plain: a one-way causal relationship between the index and the urbanization rate of cultivated land intensive use, which improve the rate of urbanization is Granger promote the use of to improve the level of cultivated land intensive, and intensive land use index did not change Granger causes the urbanization rate changes. The results show that: the development of urbanization and cultivated land intensive use of the existence of long-term cointegration, but in the short term the two interaction stress, the development of urbanization on the conduction of cultivated land intensive utilization rate will lag 3 period, and has gradually enlarged trend; The seventh chapter is the Jianghan Plain urbanization and cultivated land protection in the coordinated development of different land policy recommendations. This chapter first summarizes the recent 30 years in Jianghan Plain urbanization and cultivated land protection in the coordinated development of the problem; relevant theoretical basis to the development of urbanization research as a guide, fully grasp the current situation and development trend of cultivated land resources in the process of urbanization. In the fourth chapter, the fifth chapter is the conclusion of the analysis as the foundation, puts forward the difference deeply and systematically in Jianghan plain area of the county land policy recommendations, in order to resolve the contradiction between the development of urbanization and cultivated land resources protection, provide scientific and reasonable for the coordinated development of urbanization cultivated land protection and sustainable, intellectual support, policy reference and decision-making basis. The eighth chapter is conclusion and prospect. This chapter summarizes the main research conclusions and innovations, and The shortcomings of this paper have been made a prospect of research in this field.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F299.27;F323.211

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