本文關(guān)鍵詞：北京、上海、廣州城市旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)對(duì)比分析　出處：《上海師范大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 旅游業(yè) 旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng) 對(duì)比分析 收入效應(yīng) 創(chuàng)匯效應(yīng) 就業(yè)效應(yīng)

【摘要】：20世紀(jì)60年代以來(lái),世界旅游業(yè)步入了高速發(fā)展的時(shí)代,改革開(kāi)放以來(lái),中國(guó)的旅游業(yè)也得到迅速發(fā)展,旅游業(yè)在國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)中的地位顯著提升,逐步成長(zhǎng)為國(guó)家戰(zhàn)略性支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)。旅游業(yè)是一個(gè)就業(yè)范圍廣、創(chuàng)匯效益高、增值空間大的新興產(chǎn)業(yè)。旅游業(yè)的經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)不僅關(guān)系到旅游業(yè)自身的發(fā)展,而且還影響區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展。科學(xué)合理的評(píng)價(jià)旅游業(yè)對(duì)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)的貢獻(xiàn)水平,明確旅游業(yè)在國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)中所占的地位和所起的作用,對(duì)更好地發(fā)展旅游業(yè),促進(jìn)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展有著十分重要的意義。 北京、上海和廣州(以下稱北上廣)作為中國(guó)城市經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的先行者,是我國(guó)城市旅游發(fā)展的典范,所以本文選取了這三座城市為特定的研究對(duì)象,具有一定的代表性。雖然現(xiàn)在有文獻(xiàn)研究到旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng),但是主要是對(duì)單個(gè)城市或地區(qū)的分析研究,缺少?gòu)牡乩砜臻g上進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析研究。因此,本文將通過(guò)地運(yùn)用人文地理知識(shí)、相關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)理論,采用定性、定量的分析方法,深入探究北上廣三個(gè)城市的旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng),這對(duì)正確認(rèn)識(shí)北上廣旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)本地經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展所起的作用、探尋不同城市經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的差異性具有重要現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 為了研究需要,本文收集整理了2003年至2011年間的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)；將北上廣旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)的內(nèi)容限定在旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展背景、收入效應(yīng)、創(chuàng)匯效應(yīng)、就業(yè)效應(yīng)幾個(gè)方面；選取了旅游業(yè)總收入、旅游業(yè)增加值、旅游外匯收入、旅游就業(yè)等方面的指標(biāo)；利用大量的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用統(tǒng)計(jì)描述、回歸分析等方法,對(duì)北上廣旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析,得出以下結(jié)論。 第一,北上廣城市旅游收入效應(yīng)方面。首先,2003年到2011年間三個(gè)城市的旅游業(yè)總收入基本呈持續(xù)上升趨勢(shì),其中廣州市在三個(gè)城市中旅游收入水平最低,與之相比,北京和上海旅游總收入水平較高。北京旅游收入占GDP比重最大,九年中有五個(gè)年份旅游收入占GDP比重在20%以上,處于中間水平的上海市旅游收入占GDP比重波動(dòng)是最大的。再次,北上廣三個(gè)城市旅游收入占第三產(chǎn)業(yè)比重較高,皆在17%以上,其中上海市旅游總收入占第三產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值比重最高,其次是北京市。最后,旅游收入間接效應(yīng)方面,北京和廣州的旅游收入與當(dāng)?shù)谿DP均存在著相關(guān)性,擬合度分別達(dá)到了0.9747和0.9486,均體現(xiàn)了顯著的線性相關(guān)關(guān)系,上海旅游業(yè)收入與當(dāng)?shù)谿DP的擬合度一般(R2=0.87690%)。 第二,北上廣城市旅游創(chuàng)匯效應(yīng)方面。首先,廣州歷年旅游外匯收入高于北京和上海。廣州旅游外匯收入在貿(mào)易出口額中的比重最高,最高年份2011年達(dá)到了36.07%,第二位是北京。其次,三個(gè)城市的旅游創(chuàng)匯對(duì)GDP的貢獻(xiàn)率呈現(xiàn)高低波動(dòng)趨勢(shì),廣州旅游創(chuàng)匯對(duì)GDP的貢獻(xiàn)率最大,與之相比,北京和上海兩個(gè)城市呈現(xiàn)下滑趨勢(shì)。最后,2005年到2011年七年間北京和上海兩個(gè)城市旅游創(chuàng)匯對(duì)GDP的貢獻(xiàn)率走勢(shì)相似度非常高。 第三,北上廣三市旅游就業(yè)效應(yīng)方面。首先,北上廣三個(gè)城市旅游支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)容量均較大,對(duì)促進(jìn)當(dāng)?shù)鼐蜆I(yè),起到了非常重要的作用。但北上廣三個(gè)城市旅游主要相關(guān)行業(yè)就業(yè)人數(shù)占第三產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)人數(shù)比重方面存在顯著差異,北京五大旅游相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)人數(shù)在第三產(chǎn)比重最低,廣州最高。從三個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)的增加值比較分析看,在北上廣三個(gè)城市的就業(yè)彈性上,北京穩(wěn)中有進(jìn),上海呈現(xiàn)微下滑狀態(tài),廣州呈現(xiàn)負(fù)增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)。 總之,通過(guò)分析,肯定了三個(gè)城市旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)在促進(jìn)當(dāng)?shù)谿DP、外匯收入以及提供直接和間接就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)方面的貢獻(xiàn)。三個(gè)城市的旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)整體GDP的帶動(dòng)作用并不是并駕齊驅(qū)的,旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)也是隨著年份的推進(jìn)呈現(xiàn)波動(dòng)式前進(jìn),出現(xiàn)這些問(wèn)題的原因是多樣的,與各個(gè)城市旅游資源豐富程度、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)以及旅游發(fā)展政策有密切的關(guān)系。
[Abstract]:Since the 1960s , the world tourism has entered the era of high - speed development . Since the reform and opening - up , the tourism industry in China has been rapidly developing , the status of tourism in the national economy has been promoted significantly , and the tourism industry has been gradually grown into the national strategic pillar industry . The economic effect of tourism is not only related to the development of tourism itself , but also affects the development of regional economy . It is of great significance to evaluate the contribution level of tourism to regional economy , to clarify the position and role of tourism in the national economy , to better develop tourism and promote the development of regional economy . As a pioneer of urban economic development in China , Beijing , Shanghai and Guangzhou ( hereinafter referred to as the North ) are examples of urban tourism development in China , so this paper has selected the three cities as a model for the development of urban tourism . In order to study the need , this paper collects relevant data between 2003 and 2011 , and defines the contents of the tourism economic effect in North China on the background of tourism economy , income effect , foreign exchange income and employment effect . First , in the area of tourism income in the city of Guangzhou , the tourism revenue of Beijing and Shanghai is the lowest in three cities from 2003 to 2011 . The proportion of tourism income in Beijing and Shanghai is higher than that in Beijing and Shanghai . In the last nine years , the tourism revenue of Shanghai is the highest in the third industry , the second is Beijing . In the end of the year , the tourism income in Beijing and Guangzhou is higher than that of local GDP , and the fit degree is 0.997 47 and 0.994 86 respectively . Secondly , the tourism foreign exchange income in Guangzhou is higher than Beijing and Shanghai . In the first place , the tourism foreign exchange income in Guangzhou is higher than Beijing and Shanghai . The highest annual rate of tourism foreign exchange income in Guangzhou is 36.07 % in 2011 , the second is Beijing . Secondly , the contribution rate of tourism revenue to GDP is the largest in Guangzhou . In the end , the contribution rate to GDP is very high in Beijing and Shanghai from 2005 to July 2011 . Third , in the aspect of the tourism employment effect of the three cities in North China , the employment capacity of the three cities in North China is relatively large , which plays a very important role in promoting local employment . However , the employment numbers of the three major tourism - related industries in North China are the lowest in the third industry and the highest in Guangzhou . In conclusion , by analyzing and analyzing the contribution of the three cities ' tourism economy in promoting local GDP , foreign exchange income and providing direct and indirect employment growth , the tourism economy of the three cities is not the driving effect of the whole GDP , and the tourism economic effect is gradually advancing along with the advancing of the year . The reasons for these problems are diverse , which are closely related to the rich degree , the industrial structure and the tourism development policy of various cities .

【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F592.7

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