本文關(guān)鍵詞：秦皇島市區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展評價、預(yù)警及調(diào)控研究　出處：《燕山大學(xué)》2014年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：隨著國民經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展和社會進步，經(jīng)濟發(fā)展與人口、資源、環(huán)境之間的矛盾日益顯著，實施可持續(xù)發(fā)展已成為區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的必經(jīng)之路。區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展是國家可持續(xù)發(fā)展和全球可持續(xù)發(fā)展的基礎(chǔ)，是人類未來可持續(xù)發(fā)展的最佳選擇。因此，運用科學(xué)合理的方法和手段來研究區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展能力、發(fā)展水平和區(qū)域系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的程度，對指導(dǎo)區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義。本文從系統(tǒng)控制論的角度出發(fā)，研究秦皇島市區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展系統(tǒng)的評價、預(yù)警和調(diào)控問題。具體研究工作如下： 首先，對秦皇島市區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展控制系統(tǒng)模型進行了研究。從系統(tǒng)控制論的角度出發(fā)，設(shè)計了秦皇島市區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展行政運行圖，給出了秦皇島市區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展系統(tǒng)閉環(huán)控制模型，該系統(tǒng)模型是秦皇島市區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展系統(tǒng)評價、預(yù)警和調(diào)控的基礎(chǔ)。同時對秦皇島市區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展控制系統(tǒng)和組成該控制系統(tǒng)的經(jīng)濟、資源、環(huán)境、社會、人口、科教六個子系統(tǒng)的主要功能和特征進行分析，并論述了六個子系統(tǒng)之間的主要關(guān)系。 其次，對秦皇島市區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展系統(tǒng)進行了評價研究。通過分析國內(nèi)外可持續(xù)發(fā)展評價指標體系的各自優(yōu)缺點，以市統(tǒng)計局提供的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ)，經(jīng)過科研院所的分析，并聽取市政府和區(qū)域經(jīng)濟專家意見，建立了秦皇島市區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展評價指標體系，該體系由99項基本評價指標構(gòu)成，，并建立了秦皇島市遞階多層次可持續(xù)發(fā)展水平綜合評價模型。通過區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展評價模型、評價程序、評價算法和評價標準，對2003~2012年秦皇島市區(qū)域經(jīng)濟、資源、環(huán)境、社會、人口和科教子系統(tǒng)及秦皇島區(qū)域大系統(tǒng)可持續(xù)發(fā)展水平和協(xié)調(diào)性進行評價，并給出相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)和圖表。 進一步，以秦皇島市旅游系統(tǒng)為例進行了區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展預(yù)警分析。根據(jù)2005~2012年秦皇島市旅游統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)，分別利用小波神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)和極值學(xué)習(xí)機(ELM)網(wǎng)絡(luò)構(gòu)建了秦皇島市旅游可持續(xù)發(fā)展預(yù)警系統(tǒng)，并與BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)構(gòu)建的預(yù)警系統(tǒng)預(yù)警的結(jié)果進行了比較，比較結(jié)果表明極值學(xué)習(xí)機網(wǎng)絡(luò)的效果更好。秦皇島市非常重視城市旅游的可持續(xù)發(fā)展，根據(jù)最近幾年的統(tǒng)計數(shù)值研究表明秦皇島市的旅游可持續(xù)發(fā)展度處于較強可持續(xù)發(fā)展。 最后，研究了秦皇島市區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展系統(tǒng)的調(diào)控問題。利用反饋控制思想，對2012年秦皇島市區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)性進行分析，根據(jù)秦皇島市經(jīng)濟發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀給出了秦皇島市未來幾年經(jīng)濟、資源、環(huán)境、社會、人口和科教方面的發(fā)展對策和建議。
[Abstract]:With the development of national economy and social progress, the contradiction between economic development and population, resources and environment is increasingly obvious. The implementation of sustainable development has become the only way to regional economic development. Regional sustainable development is the basis of national sustainable development and global sustainable development, is the best choice of human sustainable development in the future. Using scientific and reasonable methods and means to study the ability of regional sustainable development, the level of development and the degree of coordinated development of regional system. This paper studies the evaluation of regional sustainable development system in Qinhuangdao from the perspective of system cybernetics. Early warning and regulatory issues. The specific studies are as follows: First of all, the regional sustainable development control system model of Qinhuangdao City is studied. From the perspective of system cybernetics, the administrative diagram of regional sustainable development of Qinhuangdao City is designed. The closed-loop control model of the regional sustainable development system in Qinhuangdao City is presented. The system model is the evaluation of the regional sustainable development system in Qinhuangdao City. The basis of early warning and regulation. At the same time, the sustainable development control system of Qinhuangdao and the economy, resources, environment, society and population of the control system are analyzed. The main functions and characteristics of the six subsystems of science and education are analyzed, and the main relationships among the six subsystems are discussed. Secondly, the regional sustainable development system of Qinhuangdao City is evaluated and studied. By analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of domestic and foreign sustainable development evaluation index system, the statistical data provided by the Bureau of Statistics of Qinhuangdao City is taken as the basis. Through the analysis of scientific research institutes and the opinions of municipal government and regional economic experts, the evaluation index system of regional sustainable development in Qinhuangdao city is established. The system consists of 99 basic evaluation indexes. The comprehensive evaluation model of the hierarchical sustainable development level of Qinhuangdao city is established. Through the regional sustainable development evaluation model, evaluation procedure, evaluation algorithm and evaluation criteria. The sustainable development level and coordination of Qinhuangdao regional economy, resources, environment, society, population, science and education subsystem and Qinhuangdao regional system were evaluated from 2003 to 2012. And gives the related data and the chart. Furthermore, taking Qinhuangdao tourism system as an example, the regional sustainable development early warning analysis is carried out. According to the statistical data of Qinhuangdao tourism from 2005 to 2012. Wavelet neural network and extreme learning machine (ELM) network are used to build Qinhuangdao tourism sustainable development early warning system, and the results of early warning system are compared with BP neural network. The results show that the effect of extreme learning machine network is better. Qinhuangdao city attaches great importance to the sustainable development of urban tourism. According to the statistical and numerical studies in recent years, the sustainable development of tourism in Qinhuangdao is in a strong sustainable development. Finally, the paper studies the regulation and control of the regional sustainable development system in Qinhuangdao city, and analyzes the coordination of the regional sustainable development system of Qinhuangdao city in 2012 by using the feedback control idea. According to the present situation of economic development in Qinhuangdao City, the countermeasures and suggestions for the development of economy, resources, environment, society, population and science and education in Qinhuangdao City in the next few years are given.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：燕山大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：X22;F127

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