我國食物需求的時空演變及草地農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)布局
發(fā)布時間：2019-04-19 21:45
【摘要】：由于我國居民食物消費結(jié)構(gòu)從以植物性食物為主轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)閯又参镄允澄锊⒅?對糧食安全的研究也逐漸轉(zhuǎn)化為對食物安全的研究。為應(yīng)對新形勢下的食物安全,任繼周院士提出了轉(zhuǎn)變傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),發(fā)展草地農(nóng)業(yè)的設(shè)想。在此基礎(chǔ)上,一些學(xué)者論證了發(fā)展草地農(nóng)業(yè)的必要性,估算了發(fā)展草地農(nóng)業(yè)的食物生產(chǎn)潛力,并在全國各地開展了草地農(nóng)業(yè)的相關(guān)試驗,取得較多的研究成果。但是,當(dāng)前研究缺乏對草食畜產(chǎn)品空間需求規(guī)律的分析、對未來需求的有效預(yù)測和對草地農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展速率的規(guī)劃。為此,在前人理論和實踐研究的基礎(chǔ)上,本研究以居民的主要食物(口糧、耗糧型畜產(chǎn)品和草食畜產(chǎn)品)為研究對象,運用空間計量經(jīng)濟學(xué)和時間趨勢預(yù)測的方法,以食物當(dāng)量和農(nóng)田當(dāng)量為量綱,從需求的角度出發(fā),分析我國1998年和2012年的食物需求演變、預(yù)測2020年和2025年各個省份各種食物的需求數(shù)量、并依據(jù)食物需求制定出短期內(nèi)我國草地農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展的總體布局。1.人均食物需求的省域間差異很大。口糧人均消費量呈明顯的階梯狀分布,從東北向西南逐級遞減,2012年趨勢更為明顯；耗糧型畜產(chǎn)品人均消費量1998年為南多北少,2012年呈現(xiàn)中部少南北多的規(guī)律；草食畜產(chǎn)品人均消費量西部高于中東部地區(qū),在中東部地區(qū)又呈現(xiàn)中部少,南北多的趨勢�？臻g相關(guān)性分析表明,三種食物人均消費量均具有顯著的空間正相關(guān)性。2.預(yù)測了未來省域尺度上的食物需求�？诩Z人均消費量采用指數(shù)趨勢預(yù)測模型,耗糧型畜產(chǎn)品、草食畜產(chǎn)品人均消費量和人口數(shù)量采用直線趨勢預(yù)測模型,對31個省份,共進行了124次回歸。參數(shù)估計的檢驗表明,絕大多數(shù)參數(shù)在p0.05的水平上顯著,模型有效；對于極少數(shù)參數(shù)估計不顯著的模型,采用2012年的值進行保守估計。3.制定了以需求為導(dǎo)向的草地農(nóng)業(yè)短期生產(chǎn)布局。按照各省份的食物需求,計算出各省份2020年和2025年的農(nóng)田當(dāng)量數(shù)“紅線”,并依據(jù)各省份耕地及草地資源狀況,設(shè)定了2020年和2025年各省份發(fā)展草地農(nóng)業(yè)的耕地、草田輪作和栽培草地的實際面積。
[Abstract]:Because of the transformation of food consumption structure from plant food to animal and plant food in China, the research on food security has been gradually transformed into food safety research. In order to deal with the food safety under the new situation, academician Ren Jizhou put forward the idea of changing the traditional agricultural structure and developing grassland agriculture. On this basis, some scholars demonstrated the necessity of developing grassland agriculture, estimated the food production potential of developing grassland agriculture, and carried out experiments on grassland agriculture all over the country, and obtained more research results. However, there is a lack of analysis on the spatial demand of herbivores and livestock products, the effective prediction of the future demand and the planning of the development rate of grassland agriculture. Therefore, on the basis of previous theoretical and practical studies, the main food (food rations, food-consuming livestock products and herbivorous livestock products) of the residents were studied in this study, and spatial econometrics and time trend prediction methods were used. Based on the dimensions of food equivalent and farmland equivalent, this paper analyzes the evolution of food demand in China in 1998 and 2012 from the perspective of demand, and forecasts the quantity of food demand in various provinces in 2020 and 2025. On the basis of food demand, the general layout of grassland agriculture development in China in the short term has been worked out. 1. The per capita demand for food varies greatly from province to province. The per capita consumption of grain-consuming animal products showed obvious step-by-step distribution, gradually decreasing from northeast to southwest, and the trend was more obvious in 2012; the per capita consumption of food-consuming livestock products in 1998 was much more than that in the north and south, and in 2012, it was less in the middle of the country than in the north; The per capita consumption of herbivorous animal products in the west was higher than that in the central and eastern regions, and showed a trend of less in the middle and more in the north and south. The spatial correlation analysis showed that the per capita consumption of the three foods had significant positive spatial correlation. 2. The food demand on the provincial scale in the future is predicted. The index trend prediction model was used to predict the per capita consumption of rations, and the linear trend prediction model was used to predict the per capita consumption and population quantity of food-consuming animal products, grass-food livestock products and food-consuming livestock products. 124 regression analyses were carried out in 31 provinces. The test of parameter estimation shows that most of the parameters are significant at p0.05 level, and the model is effective. For the model with very few parameter estimates, conservative estimation is made by using 2012 values. 3. The short-term production layout of grassland agriculture based on demand-oriented has been formulated. According to the food needs of the provinces, the "red line" of the equivalent number of farmland for the provinces in 2020 and 2025 is calculated, and the cultivated land for the development of grassland agriculture in the provinces in 2020 and 2025 is set according to the cultivated land and grassland resources of the provinces, The actual area of cropland rotation and cultivated grassland.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F323
本文編號：2461312
[Abstract]:Because of the transformation of food consumption structure from plant food to animal and plant food in China, the research on food security has been gradually transformed into food safety research. In order to deal with the food safety under the new situation, academician Ren Jizhou put forward the idea of changing the traditional agricultural structure and developing grassland agriculture. On this basis, some scholars demonstrated the necessity of developing grassland agriculture, estimated the food production potential of developing grassland agriculture, and carried out experiments on grassland agriculture all over the country, and obtained more research results. However, there is a lack of analysis on the spatial demand of herbivores and livestock products, the effective prediction of the future demand and the planning of the development rate of grassland agriculture. Therefore, on the basis of previous theoretical and practical studies, the main food (food rations, food-consuming livestock products and herbivorous livestock products) of the residents were studied in this study, and spatial econometrics and time trend prediction methods were used. Based on the dimensions of food equivalent and farmland equivalent, this paper analyzes the evolution of food demand in China in 1998 and 2012 from the perspective of demand, and forecasts the quantity of food demand in various provinces in 2020 and 2025. On the basis of food demand, the general layout of grassland agriculture development in China in the short term has been worked out. 1. The per capita demand for food varies greatly from province to province. The per capita consumption of grain-consuming animal products showed obvious step-by-step distribution, gradually decreasing from northeast to southwest, and the trend was more obvious in 2012; the per capita consumption of food-consuming livestock products in 1998 was much more than that in the north and south, and in 2012, it was less in the middle of the country than in the north; The per capita consumption of herbivorous animal products in the west was higher than that in the central and eastern regions, and showed a trend of less in the middle and more in the north and south. The spatial correlation analysis showed that the per capita consumption of the three foods had significant positive spatial correlation. 2. The food demand on the provincial scale in the future is predicted. The index trend prediction model was used to predict the per capita consumption of rations, and the linear trend prediction model was used to predict the per capita consumption and population quantity of food-consuming animal products, grass-food livestock products and food-consuming livestock products. 124 regression analyses were carried out in 31 provinces. The test of parameter estimation shows that most of the parameters are significant at p0.05 level, and the model is effective. For the model with very few parameter estimates, conservative estimation is made by using 2012 values. 3. The short-term production layout of grassland agriculture based on demand-oriented has been formulated. According to the food needs of the provinces, the "red line" of the equivalent number of farmland for the provinces in 2020 and 2025 is calculated, and the cultivated land for the development of grassland agriculture in the provinces in 2020 and 2025 is set according to the cultivated land and grassland resources of the provinces, The actual area of cropland rotation and cultivated grassland.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F323
【參考文獻】
相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條
1 葉明華;;中國糧食實現(xiàn)穩(wěn)定增產(chǎn)了嗎?——基于1978—2009年糧食主產(chǎn)區(qū)糧食產(chǎn)量的H-P濾波分解[J];財貿(mào)研究;2012年03期
2 李毓堂;;確保我國糧食安全的戰(zhàn)略途徑——發(fā)展牧草綠色蛋白質(zhì)飼料,減少飼料用糧[J];草業(yè)科學(xué);2009年02期
3 任繼周;;三鹿奶粉事件是忽略草業(yè)的直接后果[J];草業(yè)科學(xué);2009年07期
4 劉成果;;草畜乳協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展,是建設(shè)現(xiàn)代奶業(yè)的必然選擇[J];草業(yè)科學(xué);2009年07期
5 任繼周;侯扶江;胥剛;;草原文化的保持與傳承[J];草業(yè)科學(xué);2010年12期
6 任繼周;中國南方草地現(xiàn)狀與生產(chǎn)潛力[J];草業(yè)學(xué)報;1999年S1期
7 任繼周,南志標(biāo),郝敦元;草業(yè)系統(tǒng)中的界面論[J];草業(yè)學(xué)報;2000年01期
8 皇甫江云;毛鳳顯;盧欣石;;中國西南地區(qū)的草地資源分析[J];草業(yè)學(xué)報;2012年01期
9 余振國,胡小平;我國糧食安全與耕地的數(shù)量和質(zhì)量關(guān)系研究[J];地理與地理信息科學(xué);2003年03期
10 孫濤;李勝利;;我國畜牧業(yè)發(fā)展與糧食安全[J];飼料工業(yè);2007年09期
相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條
1 唐羽彤;我國食物安全的草地農(nóng)業(yè)替代模式研究[D];蘭州大學(xué);2013年
，本文編號：2461312
本文鏈接：http://sikaile.net/jingjilunwen/nongyejingjilunwen/2461312.html
最近更新
教材專著
