【摘要】：在工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程中,農(nóng)村勞動(dòng)力不斷向城市和非農(nóng)部門轉(zhuǎn)移,務(wù)農(nóng)勞動(dòng)力減少對(duì)我國(guó)糧食生產(chǎn)造成一定影響。分析農(nóng)村勞動(dòng)力轉(zhuǎn)移與糧食生產(chǎn)方式、糧食產(chǎn)出及生產(chǎn)成本之間的變化關(guān)系,探究農(nóng)村勞動(dòng)力轉(zhuǎn)出后保障糧食生產(chǎn)的配套政策具有重要意義。論文對(duì)現(xiàn)有的理論和文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行了梳理,應(yīng)用發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中關(guān)于農(nóng)村勞動(dòng)力轉(zhuǎn)移的經(jīng)典理論,對(duì)已有研究的內(nèi)容框架進(jìn)行了分析。通過實(shí)地調(diào)研并歸納典型案例,分析了不同發(fā)展階段典型地區(qū)農(nóng)村勞動(dòng)力轉(zhuǎn)移的特點(diǎn)以及當(dāng)?shù)丶Z食生產(chǎn)的變化特征。為宏觀、定量把握農(nóng)村勞動(dòng)力轉(zhuǎn)移對(duì)我國(guó)糧食生產(chǎn)的影響,本文搜集整理了1978年—2012年全國(guó)31個(gè)省區(qū)的數(shù)據(jù),按主產(chǎn)省和非主產(chǎn)省劃分,通過應(yīng)用模型進(jìn)行分析,結(jié)果表明農(nóng)村勞動(dòng)力轉(zhuǎn)移對(duì)糧食產(chǎn)出的影響微弱,而起顯著影響的因素為播種面積,其次分別為化肥使用量、機(jī)械化程度。為分析農(nóng)村勞動(dòng)力轉(zhuǎn)移與糧食投入要素之間的變化關(guān)系,本文還運(yùn)用農(nóng)產(chǎn)品成本收益數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了研究。結(jié)果表明,農(nóng)村勞動(dòng)力轉(zhuǎn)移致使糧食生產(chǎn)中的人工成本上漲,且其占糧食生產(chǎn)成本的比重越來越高,與產(chǎn)出增長(zhǎng)相比較,勞動(dòng)力轉(zhuǎn)移對(duì)糧食生產(chǎn)成本的影響更加顯著。論文還研究了工業(yè)化進(jìn)程中日本農(nóng)村勞動(dòng)力轉(zhuǎn)移,結(jié)果表明勞動(dòng)力快速轉(zhuǎn)移導(dǎo)致日本農(nóng)戶出現(xiàn)分化,兼業(yè)農(nóng)戶大量出現(xiàn),以及糧食播種面積和產(chǎn)量減少,糧食生產(chǎn)地位下降。為保障該國(guó)糧食生產(chǎn),日本不斷完善社會(huì)化服務(wù),大力普及農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械,加強(qiáng)教育和培訓(xùn),并提高糧食價(jià)格與農(nóng)業(yè)工資。綜合以上研究,本文結(jié)論是,農(nóng)村勞動(dòng)力轉(zhuǎn)移對(duì)糧食生產(chǎn)方式有兩方面的影響,積極方面主要表現(xiàn)為促進(jìn)了土地規(guī)模經(jīng)營(yíng)和農(nóng)業(yè)社會(huì)化服務(wù)的發(fā)展,但同時(shí)導(dǎo)致勞動(dòng)力數(shù)量減少、老齡化問題較為突出;農(nóng)村勞動(dòng)力轉(zhuǎn)移對(duì)糧食產(chǎn)出并沒有太大的影響,但會(huì)引起人工成本上漲,這已成為推動(dòng)糧食生產(chǎn)成本上漲的重要因素。在未來種糧勞動(dòng)力減少、人工費(fèi)用上漲的態(tài)勢(shì)下,穩(wěn)步推進(jìn)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn),提高種糧收益是亟需解決的問題。為此本研究提出了加快適度規(guī)�；�(jīng)營(yíng)、推進(jìn)農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械化、完善社會(huì)化服務(wù)、加強(qiáng)農(nóng)村人才隊(duì)伍建設(shè)等政策建議。
[Abstract]:In the process of industrialization and urbanization, the rural labor force is constantly transferred to the urban and non-agricultural sectors, and the reduction of the agricultural labor force has a certain impact on the grain production in China. It is of great significance to analyze the relationship between the transfer of rural labor force and grain production mode, grain output and production cost, and to explore the supporting policies for ensuring grain production after the rural labor force is transferred out. This paper combs the existing theories and literature, and analyzes the content frame of the existing research by applying the classical theory of rural labor force transfer in development economics. Through field investigation and induction of typical cases, this paper analyzes the characteristics of rural labor force transfer and the changing characteristics of local grain production in typical areas of different development stages. In order to quantitatively grasp the impact of rural labor force transfer on grain production in China, this paper collects and collates the data of 31 provinces in China from 1978 to 2012, divides them into main and non-major production provinces, and analyzes them by applying the model. The results showed that the influence of rural labor force transfer on grain output was weak, and the significant influence factors were sowing area, followed by fertilizer usage and mechanization degree. In order to analyze the changing relationship between rural labor force transfer and grain input factors, this paper also uses the data of agricultural products cost and income to study. The results show that labor transfer in rural areas leads to the increase of labor cost in grain production, and its proportion in grain production cost is increasing. Compared with output growth, labor transfer has more significant effect on grain production cost. The paper also studies the transfer of rural labor force in Japan during the process of industrialization. The results show that the rapid transfer of labor force leads to the differentiation of Japanese farmers, the emergence of a large number of part-time farmers, the decrease of grain planting area and yield, and the decline of the status of grain production. In order to ensure the country's grain production, Japan has continuously improved socialized services, vigorously popularized agricultural machinery, strengthened education and training, and raised food prices and agricultural wages. Synthesizing the above research, this paper concludes that the rural labor transfer has two effects on grain production, and the positive aspects are mainly to promote the development of land scale management and agricultural socialized service. But at the same time, the number of labor force is reduced, the aging problem is more prominent; The transfer of rural labor has little effect on grain output, but it will lead to higher labor cost, which has become an important factor in pushing up grain production cost. Under the situation of decreasing labor force and increasing labor cost in the future, it is urgent to solve the problem of promoting agricultural production steadily and increasing the income of grain planting. Therefore, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions, such as speeding up moderate scale management, promoting agricultural mechanization, perfecting socialized service and strengthening the construction of rural talents.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F323.6;F326.11

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本文編號(hào)：2384806