本文選題：農(nóng)業(yè) + 生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)��； 參考：《河南大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：中國(guó)是一個(gè)農(nóng)業(yè)大國(guó),如何把農(nóng)業(yè)大國(guó)變成農(nóng)業(yè)強(qiáng)國(guó)是我們面臨的巨大挑戰(zhàn)。我國(guó)的農(nóng)業(yè)人口數(shù)量龐大,促進(jìn)農(nóng)民增產(chǎn)增收,提高農(nóng)業(yè)的生產(chǎn)效率和優(yōu)化農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)勢(shì)在必行。近年來(lái),中國(guó)的第三產(chǎn)業(yè)迅速發(fā)展,其中生產(chǎn)性務(wù)業(yè)作為第三產(chǎn)業(yè)中最具發(fā)展?jié)摿Φ囊徊科浒l(fā)展也最為迅速。生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)對(duì)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展具有重要的意義,由于中國(guó)是一個(gè)農(nóng)業(yè)大國(guó),農(nóng)業(yè)對(duì)我國(guó)的國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)具有其它產(chǎn)業(yè)不可替代的重要作用,所以,我們有必要研究生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)溢出效應(yīng)。為了加快中國(guó)特色的農(nóng)業(yè)化道路,我們應(yīng)該加快生產(chǎn)服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展的步伐,提高勞動(dòng)者素質(zhì),加大對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)的科技投入和提高農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械化水平,促進(jìn)生產(chǎn)的社會(huì)化和專業(yè)化,以實(shí)現(xiàn)現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)外溢效益的最大化。通過(guò)研究農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)的溢出效應(yīng),有助于我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化和升級(jí)、農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展模式的轉(zhuǎn)變、解放農(nóng)村剩余勞動(dòng)和提高我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)化水平,對(duì)我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)的可持續(xù)、健康、有序的發(fā)展具有重大的意義。因此,本文從定性和定量?jī)蓚�(gè)方面進(jìn)行了論述。定性方面,通過(guò)對(duì)現(xiàn)有研究成果進(jìn)行收集、整理、閱讀、分析和梳理,在此基礎(chǔ)之上對(duì)生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)溢出效應(yīng)的溢出機(jī)理進(jìn)行詳細(xì)分析和論述,從產(chǎn)生機(jī)理、溢出效率和溢出渠道等各個(gè)步驟討論生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)的溢出效應(yīng)。定量方面:首先,利用1999--2012全國(guó)的時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)作為分析資料,利用時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)建立模型,對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)的外溢效應(yīng)的存在性進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn),其次,利用VAR模型、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和方差分解分析測(cè)算農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)性性服務(wù)業(yè)對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)總產(chǎn)值的貢獻(xiàn)度,然后用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)模型進(jìn)一步分析農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)的主要細(xì)分行業(yè)與農(nóng)業(yè)總產(chǎn)值的關(guān)聯(lián)度。分析結(jié)果表明:從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看,農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)的外溢效應(yīng)是確切存在的,農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)的發(fā)展壯大有助與其對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)的外溢效應(yīng)。同時(shí),社會(huì)分工越來(lái)越專業(yè)化,這是農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展產(chǎn)生溢出效應(yīng)的動(dòng)力之源。本文認(rèn)為農(nóng)業(yè)科技水平、勞動(dòng)者生產(chǎn)技能、農(nóng)業(yè)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)機(jī)械化水平在很大程度上推進(jìn)了社會(huì)分工和專業(yè)化生產(chǎn),是農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)的主要溢出渠道。本文的創(chuàng)新之處是在檢驗(yàn)生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)與農(nóng)業(yè)的因果關(guān)系的基礎(chǔ)上,然后通過(guò)灰色關(guān)聯(lián)法分析農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)的主要細(xì)分行業(yè)與農(nóng)業(yè)的關(guān)聯(lián)度。不足之處是雖然利用不同的方法論證了農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)的影響和溢出渠道,但是沒(méi)有對(duì)其溢出效率進(jìn)行測(cè)算。
[Abstract]:China is a big agricultural country, how to turn a big agricultural country into an agricultural power is a great challenge we face. It is imperative to improve the agricultural production efficiency and optimize the agricultural industrial structure because of the large number of agricultural population in our country. In recent years, China's tertiary industry has developed rapidly, among which the productive service industry, as the most potential part of the tertiary industry, has also developed most rapidly. Producer services are of great significance to the development of the national economy. As China is a large agricultural country and agriculture plays an irreplaceable role in the national economy of our country, It is necessary to study the spillover effect of producer services on agriculture. In order to speed up the agricultural road with Chinese characteristics, we should speed up the pace of the development of the production and service industry, improve the quality of the workers, increase the scientific and technological input to agriculture and raise the level of agricultural mechanization, and promote the socialization and specialization of production. In order to realize the maximization of spillover benefit of modern service industry. By studying the spillover effect of agricultural producer services on agriculture, it is helpful to optimize and upgrade the agricultural structure of our country, to change the mode of agricultural economic development, to liberate the surplus labor in rural areas and to improve the level of urbanization in our country. It is of great significance to the sustainable, healthy and orderly development of agriculture in China. Therefore, this article has carried on the discussion from the qualitative and the quantitative two aspects. Qualitatively, through collecting, collating, reading, analyzing and combing the existing research results, on the basis of this, the spillover mechanism of producer services to agriculture is analyzed and discussed in detail. The spillover effect of producer services on agriculture is discussed in various steps, such as spillover efficiency and spillover channel. Quantitative aspects: firstly, using the time series data of China from 1999 to 2012 as the analysis data, using the time series data to establish a model to test the existence of spillover effect of agricultural producer services on agriculture, secondly, using VAR model, Impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis were used to estimate the contribution of agricultural producer services to the total agricultural output value, and then the grey relational model was used to further analyze the correlation degree between the main subdivisions of agricultural producer services and the total agricultural output value. The results show that, in the long run, the spillover effect of agricultural producer services on agriculture is real, and the development of agricultural producer services is helpful to its spillover effect on agriculture. At the same time, social division of labor is becoming more and more specialized, which is the source of spill-over effect of agricultural producer service. This paper holds that the level of agricultural science and technology, laborer's production skills, agricultural infrastructure and agricultural production mechanization promote the social division of labor and specialized production to a great extent, and are the main spillover channels of agricultural producer service industry. The innovation of this paper is to test the causality between producer services and agriculture, and then to analyze the correlation degree between the main subsectors of agricultural producer services and agriculture by grey correlation method. The deficiency is that although different methods are used to demonstrate the impact of agricultural producer services on agriculture and spillover channels, it does not measure its spillover efficiency.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F323

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