本文選題：農(nóng)戶 + 水稻收獲損失　； 參考：《江南大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：在人口增長、居民食物消費結構升級所導致的糧食剛性需求增長與我國人均資源趨緊的矛盾下,中國糧食供需未來仍將處于依賴進口的緊平衡狀態(tài)。然而,中國在保障糧食安全問題上一直較注重“產(chǎn)前”和“產(chǎn)中”環(huán)節(jié)的要素投入與管理,對糧食“產(chǎn)后”節(jié)糧減損的關注度嚴重不足。據(jù)統(tǒng)計,中國糧食產(chǎn)后損失情況非常突出,各環(huán)節(jié)每年損失總量上千億斤,約合2億畝耕地糧食產(chǎn)量。以水稻為例,水稻作為我國主要糧食作物之一,在收獲環(huán)節(jié)不僅存在著較大的數(shù)量損失和品質損失,還會對后續(xù)存儲、運輸和加工等環(huán)節(jié)的損失產(chǎn)生重要影響。本研究從農(nóng)戶角度出發(fā),結合中國農(nóng)村現(xiàn)狀,研究農(nóng)戶水稻收獲損失及影響因素。首先,在對相關文獻研究評述的基礎上,構建了農(nóng)戶水稻收獲損失影響因素的研究框架;其次,歸納影響農(nóng)戶水稻收獲損失的相關變量,設計了調查問卷,對全國水稻主產(chǎn)區(qū)10省份957個農(nóng)戶的水稻收獲損失現(xiàn)狀展開了實地調研。對收集整理的數(shù)據(jù),運用描述統(tǒng)計的方法,比較分析了不同樣本省份農(nóng)戶水稻收獲損失程度及其生產(chǎn)行為特征。在此基礎上,運用有序多分類Logistic模型研究識別了水稻收獲損失的9大影響因素;并進一步利用系統(tǒng)工程中的集成DEMATEL-ISM方法,對關鍵因素進行結構化分層,建立農(nóng)戶水稻收獲損失影響因素的遞階結構,分析了關鍵因素在系統(tǒng)中的作用機理。研究結果表明:(1)全國地區(qū)農(nóng)戶水稻收獲損失率均值在3.25%左右。然而,不同地區(qū)水稻收獲損失率存在一定的差異性,整體呈現(xiàn)出兩大特點:一是由北向南看,東北部地區(qū)水稻收獲損失率低于南部地區(qū);二是由東向西看,東部地區(qū)水稻收獲損失率低于中部,中部地區(qū)損失率低于西部。(2)通過識別水稻收獲損失顯著影響因素后發(fā)現(xiàn),農(nóng)戶家庭經(jīng)營收入占比、種植規(guī)模、機械化程度、適時收獲、作業(yè)精細度對水稻收獲損失具有負向影響;戶主外出務工、土地細碎化對水稻收獲損失的影響為正;同時,水稻收獲損失不會隨著人手增加和天氣晴好明顯降低,但會隨人手緊缺和天氣惡劣顯著增加。(3)水稻收獲損失的影響因素既相互獨立,又存在明顯的層次作用關系。其中,適時收獲與否和作業(yè)精細度對水稻收獲損失具有直接影響;收獲期天氣、人手富裕度、機械化程度、家庭經(jīng)營收入占比和土地細碎化的中介效應明顯;戶主務工與否、種植規(guī)模則是控制水稻收獲損失的深層根源因素。
[Abstract]:Under the contradiction between the growth of population and the increase of food rigid demand caused by the upgrading of food consumption structure and the tightening of per capita resources in China, China's grain supply and demand will remain in a tight balance of dependence on imports in the future. However, China has always paid more attention to the input and management of "prenatal" and "production" elements on the issue of ensuring food security, and has not paid enough attention to the "postpartum" grain saving reduction. According to statistics, the situation of postpartum grain loss in China is very prominent, the total loss of every link is 100 billion jin per year, which is about 200 million mu of cultivated grain output. Taking rice as an example, as one of the main grain crops in China, there are not only large losses in quantity and quality, but also important effects on the loss of subsequent storage, transportation and processing. From the perspective of farmers and combining with the present situation in rural China, the paper studies the loss of rice harvest and its influencing factors. First of all, on the basis of the review of the relevant literature, the paper constructs the research framework of the influencing factors of farmers' rice harvest loss; secondly, induces the related variables that affect the farmers' rice harvest loss, and designs a questionnaire. The present situation of rice harvest loss of 957 farmers in 10 provinces of China was investigated. Based on the data collected and collated, the degree of rice harvest loss and the characteristics of rice production behavior of farmers in different provinces were compared and analyzed by the method of descriptive statistics. On the basis of this, 9 factors affecting rice harvest loss were identified by using ordered multiple classification Logistic model, and the key factors were further stratified by the integrated DEMATEL-ISM method in system engineering. The hierarchical structure of the influencing factors of farmers' rice harvest loss was established, and the mechanism of the key factors in the system was analyzed. The results showed that: (1) the average loss rate of rice harvest was about 3.25%. However, there are some differences in the rate of rice harvest loss in different regions, showing two main characteristics: one is from north to south, the other is from east to west, the loss rate of rice harvest is lower in the northeast than in the south. The rice harvest loss rate in the eastern region is lower than that in the central region, and the loss rate in the central region is lower than that in the western region. (2) by identifying the significant factors affecting the rice harvest loss, it is found that the proportion of household income, the scale of planting, the degree of mechanization, the timely harvest, and so on. The fineness of the operation had a negative effect on the rice harvest loss; when the householder went out to work, the effect of the land fragmentation on the rice harvest loss was positive; at the same time, the rice harvest loss would not be significantly reduced with the increase of manpower and the weather. But it will increase with the shortage of manpower and bad weather. (3) the influencing factors of rice harvest loss are independent of each other and have obvious hierarchical relationship. Among them, the timely harvest or not and the fineness of the operation have a direct impact on the rice harvest loss; the weather of harvest period, the degree of manpower affluence, the degree of mechanization, the proportion of household income and the fineness of the land have obvious intermediary effects; whether the householder works or not, The scale of planting is the deep root factor to control the loss of rice harvest.
【學位授予單位】：江南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F326.11

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