本文選題：糧食 + 作物��； 參考：《農(nóng)業(yè)工程學(xué)報(bào)》2016年01期

【摘要】：隨著糧食全球化趨勢(shì)和中國(guó)糧食安全戰(zhàn)略調(diào)整,準(zhǔn)確了解中國(guó)和國(guó)外主要糧食作物生產(chǎn)狀況、產(chǎn)量變化及其氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平,對(duì)于氣候變化背景下保障中國(guó)糧食安全和國(guó)家"農(nóng)業(yè)走出去"戰(zhàn)略實(shí)施具有重要意義。該文以全球主要糧食生產(chǎn)國(guó)糧食產(chǎn)量資料為基本資料,通過作物氣象產(chǎn)量分離對(duì)全球主要糧食作物的產(chǎn)量變化進(jìn)行了研究;用新構(gòu)建的減產(chǎn)概率系數(shù)pc和平均減產(chǎn)率d、減產(chǎn)率變異系數(shù)v定義了綜合氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)Pw,根據(jù)Pw≤2.0、2.0Pw≤4.0和Pw4.0將全球糧食主產(chǎn)區(qū)劃分為氣象災(zāi)害低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)、中風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)和高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)。研究結(jié)果顯示,法國(guó)、德國(guó)和中國(guó)的小麥、美國(guó)、巴西、阿根廷的玉米和大豆、中國(guó)和越南的水稻產(chǎn)量水平在近50多年提升迅速,但區(qū)域差異明顯。加拿大和澳大利亞小麥、美國(guó)玉米、巴西和阿根廷大豆的Pw超過4.0,為氣象災(zāi)害高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū);俄羅斯和中國(guó)小麥、巴西和阿根廷玉米、美國(guó)和中國(guó)大豆、印度水稻的Pw介于2.0和4.0,為中風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū);美國(guó)、德國(guó)、法國(guó)和印度小麥、中國(guó)玉米、中國(guó)、越南和泰國(guó)水稻的Pw小于2.0,為低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)。文中方法能夠直觀評(píng)估全球糧食產(chǎn)區(qū)糧食生產(chǎn)水平和綜合氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn),對(duì)宏觀了解和認(rèn)識(shí)國(guó)內(nèi)外糧食生產(chǎn)狀況具有借鑒意義。
[Abstract]:With the trend of grain globalization and the readjustment of China's grain security strategy, it is necessary to accurately understand the production situation, yield changes and meteorological disaster risk levels of major food crops in China and abroad. It is of great significance to ensure China's food security under the background of climate change and to implement the strategy of "going out of Agriculture". Based on the data of grain yield of the world's main grain producing countries, the variation of the global main grain crops' yield was studied by means of the separation of crop meteorological yield. The comprehensive meteorological disaster risk index (Pw) is defined by using the newly constructed probability coefficient PC and the average rate of reduction d, and the coefficient of variation of the reduction rate v. According to the Pw 鈮，

本文編號(hào)：2000252