本文選題：經(jīng)濟新常態(tài) + 擴展線性模型　； 參考：《楚雄師范學院學報》2016年09期

【摘要】：培育云南農(nóng)村新的消費增長點有助于為農(nóng)村新一輪的經(jīng)濟增長尋找出路。本文首先利用擴展線性模型研究云南農(nóng)村八項消費與人均可支配收入間的關(guān)系,并利用ARIMA模型預測未來五年的人均可支配收入;在此基礎(chǔ)上預測了云南農(nóng)村未來八項消費,探尋了云南農(nóng)村未來新的消費增長點。研究表明:食品、居住、交通通訊、醫(yī)療保健消費依然是未來幾年云南農(nóng)村消費的主要支撐點。
[Abstract]:Cultivating new consumption growth points in rural areas of Yunnan is helpful to find a way out for the new round of economic growth in rural areas. This paper first studies the relationship between the eight items of consumption and the per capita disposable income in rural areas of Yunnan Province by using the extended linear model, and forecasts the per capita disposable income in the next five years by using the ARIMA model, and then predicts the eight items of consumption in the rural areas of Yunnan Province in the future. Explored the Yunnan countryside future new consumption growth point. The research shows that food, housing, communication, health care consumption are still the main supporting points of rural consumption in Yunnan in the next few years.
【作者單位】： 楚雄師范學院經(jīng)濟與管理學院;
【基金】：云南省哲學社會科學規(guī)劃項目;項目編號:QN2015001 云南省教育廳科學研究基金項目;項目編號:2015Y437 楚雄師范學院科學研究基金項目;項目編號:13XJRC09
【分類號】：F323.8

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