本文選題：海島地區(qū) + CLUE-S模型�。� 參考：《浙江財經(jīng)大學》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來，隨著我國海洋發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的制定與實施，海洋經(jīng)濟的迅速發(fā)展，海島所獨有的區(qū)位、資源優(yōu)勢日益凸顯，對海島進行開發(fā)利用的需求越來越迫切。海島地區(qū)蘊含著巨大的開發(fā)潛力，但也存在著生態(tài)環(huán)境脆弱、水資源約束等影響可持續(xù)發(fā)展的制約因素。海島地區(qū)作為陸地與海洋之間的緩沖區(qū)域，在自然、社會、經(jīng)濟以及發(fā)展形態(tài)等方面與其他地區(qū)存在顯著差異。本文通過對海島地區(qū)土地利用/土地覆被變化的研究，分析海島地區(qū)土地利用的變化趨勢，選取表征海島地區(qū)空間特征的土地利用變化驅(qū)動因子，基于CLUE-S模型，，對海島地區(qū)未來土地利用布局的變化進行多情景模擬。研究結果可為海島地區(qū)土地利用優(yōu)化布局提供依據(jù)，也可為海島地區(qū)海洋經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方向的設定提供參考。 論文的主要研究思路是：以舟山市岱山縣岱山島為研究區(qū)域，通過梳理文獻、匯總歷史數(shù)據(jù)等手段分析研究區(qū)域的土地利用變化趨勢，結合所調(diào)查和收集的基礎數(shù)據(jù)，提取出能體現(xiàn)海島地區(qū)土地利用特點的驅(qū)動因子；應用Logistic回歸模型確定影響研究區(qū)域土地利用變化因素的概率分布；應用CLUE-S模型以2009年的土地利用現(xiàn)狀模擬2012年的土地利用空間分布，將得出的模擬結果與2012年土地利用實際空間分布進行對比分析，以此為思路進行CLUE-S模型的相關參數(shù)進行調(diào)整。在此基礎上，基于新區(qū)發(fā)展、陸海統(tǒng)籌和生態(tài)保護這三種不同的政策背景，設定三種土地利用情景，應用Markov鏈預測三種情景下的土地利用需求數(shù)量，運用CLUE-S模型模擬不同政策背景下2020年的土地利用變化狀況，并對預測結果進行對比分析，最后得出研究結論。 論文的主要研究結論是：（1）從土地利用變化趨勢來看，研究區(qū)域未來的土地變化表現(xiàn)為耕地面積增加，林地、其他農(nóng)用地面積減少，其他農(nóng)用地部分轉為耕地，而建設用地的大量擴張使得灘涂及其他未利用地面積大幅減少；（2）海島地區(qū)的土地利用變化與經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展密切相關：耕地和其他農(nóng)用地的變化與當?shù)禺a(chǎn)業(yè)結構、糧食產(chǎn)量等有著較為密切的關系；建設用地的變化與當?shù)禺a(chǎn)業(yè)結構、財政收入水平、投資水平、居住用地面積等都有著較為密切的關系；灘涂變化的影響因素基本與建設用地一致；同時，自然條件（如區(qū)位、地形坡度）也會對土地利用變化產(chǎn)生較大的影響；（3）從三種情景對2020年的預測結果來看，得出的土地利用空間布局符合研究區(qū)域社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的總體方向。結果顯示，研究區(qū)域未來將會面臨生態(tài)用地布局、耕地布局與建設用地布局之間的矛盾。如何同時兼顧糧食安全、經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展與生態(tài)安全，將是研究區(qū)域未來的課題之一。（4）參數(shù)調(diào)整后的CLUE-S模型，能夠較好地對不同社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展情景的海島地區(qū)土地利用空間布局進行模擬；研究結果可為土地利用總體規(guī)劃編制時的空間布局提供依據(jù)，也可為海島地區(qū)經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略與相關政策的制定提供參考，使得海島地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展政策更具有科學性、前瞻性與實用性。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the development and implementation of China's marine development strategy, the rapid development of marine economy, the unique location and resource advantages of the island are becoming increasingly prominent, and the demand for exploitation and utilization of the island is becoming more and more urgent. As a buffer zone between land and sea, the island region has significant differences with other areas in nature, society, economy and development form. Through the study of land use / land cover change in the island area, the change trend of land use in the island area is analyzed, and the island area is selected to represent the island area. The spatial characteristics of land use change driving factor, based on the CLUE-S model, simulate the changes of land use layout in the island area in the future. The results can provide the basis for the optimal layout of land use in the island area, and also provide reference for the setting of the ocean economic development direction of the island area.
The main research ideas of this paper are: taking Daishan island of Daishan County of Zhoushan as the research area, by combing the literature and summarizing the historical data, this paper analyzes the trend of land use change in the study area, and extracts the driving factors that can reflect the land use characteristics of the island area with the basic data collected and collected; and the Logistic regression is applied. The model determines the probability distribution of the factors affecting the land use change factors in the study area, and uses the CLUE-S model to simulate the land use spatial distribution in 2012 by using the land use status in 2009, and compares the simulated results with the actual spatial distribution of land use in 2012. In this way, the related parameters of the CLUE-S model are carried out. On this basis, based on the three different policy backgrounds of new area development, land and sea planning and ecological protection, three land use scenarios are set up, Markov chain is used to predict the land use demand under three scenarios, and CLUE-S model is used to simulate the situation of land use change under different policy background in 2020, and the forecast results are carried out. At last, the conclusion of the study is obtained by comparison and analysis.
The main conclusions of the thesis are as follows: (1) from the trend of land use change, the future land change in the study area shows the increase of cultivated land, the reduction of woodland, other agricultural land area, and the conversion of other agricultural land to cultivated land, while the large expansion of the construction land makes the area of beach and other unused land greatly reduced; (2) the island area The change of land use is closely related to the economic and social development: the change of cultivated land and other agricultural land has a close relationship with the local industrial structure and grain output, and the change of the construction land has a close relationship with the local industrial structure, the level of financial income, the level of investment, the land accumulation, and so on. The influencing factors are basically consistent with the construction land; at the same time, natural conditions (such as location, terrain slope) will also have a greater impact on land use change. (3) from the forecast results of the three scenarios in 2020, the spatial distribution of land use accords with the overall direction of the social and economic development of the research area. The future will face the contradiction between the layout of ecological land, the layout of cultivated land and the layout of the construction land. How to take into account the food security, the economic and social development and the ecological security will be one of the topics in the future of the study area. (4) the CLUE-S model after the adjustment of parameters can be better for the land benefit of the island area with different social and economic development scenarios. The results can provide the basis for the spatial layout of the overall planning of land use, and provide a reference for the economic and social development strategy and relevant policy formulation of the island area, and make the economic and social development policy of the island region more scientific, forward-looking and practical.
【學位授予單位】：浙江財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F301.2

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