發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-16 21:15

  本文選題：林業(yè)PMI指數(shù) + 時(shí)差相關(guān)分析��； 參考：《統(tǒng)計(jì)與決策》2017年08期

【摘要】：林業(yè)PMI是我國(guó)乃至全球范圍內(nèi)第一個(gè)監(jiān)測(cè)林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行態(tài)勢(shì)的月度指標(biāo),其科學(xué)性和領(lǐng)先性決定了它的實(shí)踐和應(yīng)用價(jià)值。文章使用時(shí)差互相關(guān)分析檢驗(yàn)了林業(yè)PMI及其進(jìn)出口指數(shù)的領(lǐng)先性,結(jié)果顯示林業(yè)PMI領(lǐng)先于我國(guó)木材加工行業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)1個(gè)月感知行業(yè)運(yùn)行走勢(shì),林業(yè)PMI出口指數(shù)領(lǐng)先海關(guān)出口數(shù)據(jù)0~1個(gè)月,林業(yè)PMI進(jìn)口指數(shù)領(lǐng)先海關(guān)進(jìn)口數(shù)據(jù)1~3個(gè)月。
[Abstract]:Forestry PMI is the first monthly index to monitor forestry economic running situation in our country and even the whole world. Its scientific nature and leading character determine its practice and application value. The paper tests the forerunner of forestry PMI and its import and export index by means of time difference cross-correlation analysis. The results show that forestry PMI is ahead of China's timber processing industry data in one month's perceived operation trend. The forestry PMI export index leads the customs export data by 0 ~ 1 month, and the forestry PMI import index leads the customs import data by 1 ~ 3 months.
【作者單位】： 中央財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;中國(guó)林業(yè)科學(xué)研究院科信所;北京林業(yè)大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)際熱帶木材組織(ITTO)項(xiàng)目(TFL-PD 017/09 Rev.2(M))
【分類號(hào)】：F326.2
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本文編號(hào)：1898407