本文選題：城鄉(xiāng)家庭消費　切入點：消費差異　出處：《成都理工大學》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：改革開放30多年,我國經(jīng)濟以平均8%的高速發(fā)展,取得了豐碩的成果。隨著市場經(jīng)濟的不斷深化,長期依靠投資和出口作為增長動力的中國經(jīng)濟漸露疲態(tài),作為拉動經(jīng)濟增長的三駕馬車之一,消費一躍成為我國經(jīng)濟持續(xù)增長的新動力。然而,多年的城鄉(xiāng)分割形態(tài)下,勞動力、資金以及信息呈現(xiàn)偏向城鎮(zhèn)的單向流動,使得制度性的二元結構逐漸演化成收入、保障、城鄉(xiāng)基礎設施及公共服務等市場性的二元結構,城鄉(xiāng)消費差異日漸嚴重。作為經(jīng)濟增長的新源泉,消費所體現(xiàn)的內需不足引起了政府的高度重視;作為城鄉(xiāng)居民發(fā)展不公平的直觀體現(xiàn),城鄉(xiāng)消費二元化也日益受到社會各界的關注。從社會穩(wěn)定的角度看,縮小城鄉(xiāng)消費差異有助于提高農(nóng)村居民的福利水平,實現(xiàn)社會范圍內的公平正義,增強居民的幸福度從而維持社會穩(wěn)定;從經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的思路講,提升農(nóng)村居民的消費水平進而消滅城鄉(xiāng)消費二元化,有助于釋放內需,消耗國內過剩產(chǎn)能,帶動經(jīng)濟的再次增長。因此,對于城鄉(xiāng)消費差異以及農(nóng)村內部消費差異的研究具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義和政策含義。本文從城鄉(xiāng)二元化的角度,基于CHFS2011年全國調查得到的微觀數(shù)據(jù)①,采用分位數(shù)回歸方法較為詳細地分析了城鄉(xiāng)家庭之間以及農(nóng)村內部消費差異的影響因素。在消費差異的諸多影響因素中,本文重點考察了收入、教育、資產(chǎn)、年齡、社會保障的貢獻大小,證實了隱性二元化的存在,得到了隱性因素對城鄉(xiāng)消費差異的貢獻率。文章共分為6個章節(jié)。遵照觀察現(xiàn)象——研究文獻——提出疑問——解決問題的思路對城鄉(xiāng)消費的差異進行分析。各章內容安排如下:第一章首先介紹了研究背景,采用宏觀與微觀數(shù)據(jù)對城鄉(xiāng)消費水平進行總體對比進而引出本文的研究對象,接著對本文的研究意義、行文思路、邏輯框架、實證方法和主要創(chuàng)新點進行了詳細說明。第二章對國內外相關理論和文獻進行梳理。首先介紹了西方經(jīng)濟學中消費理論的發(fā)展,接著分三部分對國內外研究成果進行整理和小結。第一部分根據(jù)經(jīng)濟學消費理論的演化,詳細介紹了各個階段國內學者的重點研究內容及研究方法。在第二部分對國外學者的代表性成果進行評述。第三部分對國內外研究的成果和不足進行總結,結合中國特色的城鄉(xiāng)環(huán)境和制度安排,將社會普遍關注的二元化分解為“顯性”和“隱性”兩部分,給出隱性二元化的定義,并提出本文的研究問題。第三章分為實證模型和數(shù)據(jù)說明兩部分。第一部分詳細闡述了分位數(shù)回歸模型以及Oaxaca-Blinder分解的原理,進一步引入反事實分布構造分位數(shù)分解模型。第二部分介紹本文選用的微觀數(shù)據(jù),并針對以前研究中數(shù)據(jù)處理的不足,進行本文數(shù)據(jù)處理的說明。第四章根據(jù)模型設定對城鄉(xiāng)消費和選定的解釋變量進行回歸和消費差異的分解。分位數(shù)回歸結果測算出流動性約束和不確定性對于城鄉(xiāng)消費差異的具體影響,并驗證了消費的周期性特征。分解結果給出了顯性二元化和隱形二元化的作用。第五章單獨對農(nóng)村內部消費進行研究。對城鄉(xiāng)消費差異產(chǎn)生影響的變量均納入考察范圍,檢驗其是否也是農(nóng)村內部消費差異的成因。第六章對全文的研究內容和結論進行了總結,闡述了結論包含的政策含義,并針對結論提出相應的建議。本文的主要結論如下:1.不論是城鄉(xiāng)之間還是農(nóng)村內部,現(xiàn)期收入、社會保障、教育水平和資產(chǎn),都是決定消費行為的主要因素,印證了消費函數(shù)中流動性約束、不確定性、持久收入對消費的作用。這些變量對處于中、低分布位置的農(nóng)村家庭消費的影響更大。城鄉(xiāng)家庭的消費均體現(xiàn)出生命周期特征。2.對城鄉(xiāng)消費總差異進行橫向與縱向的分解后發(fā)現(xiàn),城鄉(xiāng)消費差異主要來自顯性因素的影響,隱性因素則是城鄉(xiāng)消費差異變化的原因。城鄉(xiāng)家庭的消費總差異中70.31%來源于“顯性因素”,29.69%來源于“隱性因素”。隨著消費層次上升,差異不斷減小,其下降的主要原因是農(nóng)村家庭受到來自城鄉(xiāng)消費環(huán)境、消費發(fā)展階段、消費觀念及習慣等“隱性因素”的影響在不斷減弱。3.針對城鄉(xiāng)消費差異的分析結果,本文給出了縮小城鄉(xiāng)消費差異的幾點建議。一是借力現(xiàn)階段土地改革的東風,盤活農(nóng)民的土地資產(chǎn),以增加其財產(chǎn)性收入;二是著力加大農(nóng)村居民的基本社會保障的廣度、保障深度以及直接農(nóng)業(yè)補貼,以提高農(nóng)民的轉移性收入;三是倡導農(nóng)村居民參加職業(yè)教育,鼓勵進入高等教育,從預期工作年限和薪資水平兩方面加強農(nóng)民的收入預期,以提高其工資性收入。此外,在城鎮(zhèn)化建設中對農(nóng)村地區(qū)進行物質改造和意識灌輸以提升農(nóng)村家庭的消費環(huán)境、消費觀念、消費發(fā)展階段,有助于化解隱性二元化造成的農(nóng)村消費障礙。
[Abstract]:30 years of reform and opening up, China's economic development at a high average of 8%, and achieved fruitful results. With the deepening of market economy, the long-term dependence on investment and exports as the growth momentum of the economy China gradually exposed weakness, as one of the three carriages to promote economic growth, consumption has become a new impetus to the sustained economic growth in China however, for many years the labor division between urban and rural areas, form, funds and information presented one-way flow of bias of the town, making two yuan of structure system gradually evolved into income guarantee, two yuan structure of urban and rural infrastructure and public services market, consumption difference between urban and rural areas have become increasingly serious. As a new source for economic growth, the reflect the consumption of insufficient domestic demand has attracted great attention of the government; as the development of urban and rural residents do not directly reflect the fair, urban and rural consumption of two yuan has also been a concern in the community. From the agency Stable point of view, narrowing the differences between urban and rural consumption helps to improve rural residents' welfare level, to achieve fairness and justice in the society, enhance people's well-being so as to maintain social stability; from the ideas of economic development, improve the consumption level of rural residents and eliminate urban and rural consumption of two yuan, helps to release domestic consumption, domestic overcapacity, promote economic growth again. Therefore, has the practical significance and important policy implications for the study of differences between urban and rural consumption and rural consumption. This paper from the internal differences between urban and rural areas two yuan of micro angle, the data obtained CHFS2011 national survey based on the quantile regression method were analyzed in detail. The influence factors of urban and rural households and rural consumption between internal differences. Among many factors affecting consumption difference, this paper focuses on the education, income, assets, age And the contribution of social security, confirmed the existence of hidden two yuan, with the recessive factors on the difference of urban and rural consumption rate is obtained. This paper is divided into 6 chapters. According to the observed phenomenon -- the difference of research ideas to solve the problem about urban and rural consumption were analyzed. Each chapter is as follows: the first chapter introduces the research background, the research object of urban and rural consumption level of the overall contrast and introduces the macro and micro data, then the significance of this study, the train of thought, logical framework, empirical method and main innovation points are discussed in detail. The second chapter of domestic and foreign related theories and literature review at first introduces the development of consumption theory in western economics, and then divided into three parts to the domestic and foreign research results, collation and summary. The first part according to the theory of Consumer Economics Evolution, introduces the key research contents and research methods of the various stages of the domestic scholars. The review of representative achievements of the second part of the foreign scholars. In the third part of the domestic and foreign research achievements and shortcomings are summarized, combined with the China characteristics of the urban and rural environment and institutional arrangements, will be two yuan of social attention into two part of "dominant" and "hidden", the definition of implicit two yuan, and put forward the research problem of this paper. The third chapter is divided into empirical model and data description of two parts. The first part elaborates the principle of quantile regression model and Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition, further introducing the counterfactual distribution structure of quantile decomposition model. The second part introduces the micro data in this paper, aiming at the shortcomings of previous research in data processing, the data processing shows. The fourth chapter set the model according to the city Rural consumption and the explanatory variables selected by regression decomposition and consumption differences. Quantile regression results to calculate the specific impact of liquidity constraints and uncertainty for the consumption difference between urban and rural areas, and verify the cyclical characteristics of consumption. The decomposition results are given two yuan and the dominant role of the invisible two yuan. The fifth chapter separately study for internal consumption in rural areas. Impact on the difference of urban and rural consumption variables are included in the scope of the study, whether it is internal inspection causes of rural consumption differences. In the sixth chapter, research contents and conclusions of this dissertation is summarized and the conclusion expounds the policy implications contained, and put forward the corresponding suggestions according to the conclusion. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows 1.: whether it is between urban and rural areas and rural areas, income, social security, education level and assets are the main factors determining consumer behavior, confirms the consumption function Liquidity constraints, the number of uncertainties, lasting effect of income on consumption. These variables in a low position, the distribution of rural household consumption more effect. Urban and rural household consumption are reflected in the life cycle of.2. of total consumption in urban and rural areas between the horizontal and vertical decomposition that influence the consumption difference between urban and rural areas mainly from the dominant factors, recessive factor is the reasons for the change of consumption difference between urban and rural areas. The total consumption difference between urban and rural families in 70.31% from the "dominant factor", 29.69% from the hidden factors. With the consumption level rise, the difference decreases, the main reason is the decline in rural households from urban and rural consumption environment. The development stage of consumption, consumer attitudes and habits of the hidden factors influence on the analysis results of.3. for weakening consumption difference between urban and rural areas, narrowing the differences between urban and rural consumption is given in this paper. Some suggestions. One is the land reform at the present stage of leveraging Dongfeng, revitalize the farmers' land assets, to increase the property income of rural residents; two is to increase the basic social security of the breadth, depth and direct protection of agricultural subsidies, to increase farmers' transfer income; three is to promote rural residents to participate in occupation encourage education into higher education, from two aspects of working age and salary levels expected to strengthen farmers' income is expected to increase its income. In addition, the material transformation and to enhance the consciousness of indoctrination of rural households consumption environment, consumption of rural areas in the process of urbanization, the development stage of consumption, help to resolve hidden two yuan caused by rural consumption barriers.

【學位授予單位】：成都理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F323.8

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