發(fā)布時間：2018-03-12 11:35

  本文選題：柑橘產(chǎn)量保險　切入點：風(fēng)險分區(qū)　出處：《湖南農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)學(xué)報(社會科學(xué)版)》2017年05期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：遵循風(fēng)險地域差異性及區(qū)內(nèi)相似性原則,根據(jù)縣(市)柑橘產(chǎn)量風(fēng)險及保險歷史數(shù)據(jù),以行政區(qū)界相對完整為前提采用因子分析方法進(jìn)行風(fēng)險分區(qū),然后運用正態(tài)分布、Gamma分布和Weibull分布參數(shù)模型擬合湘南地區(qū)20個縣市的柑橘單產(chǎn)保險費率,并對其進(jìn)行最終修正。研究表明:柑橘產(chǎn)量風(fēng)險的縣(市)差異明顯,不適于采取統(tǒng)一保險費率政策;柑橘產(chǎn)量保險純費率基本符合"高風(fēng)險區(qū)域較高風(fēng)險區(qū)域較低風(fēng)險區(qū)域低風(fēng)險區(qū)域"風(fēng)險排序,表明差別性費率能較好反映區(qū)域承災(zāi)風(fēng)險,與保險責(zé)任匹配;實際保險費率不僅與風(fēng)險相關(guān),還涉及安全系數(shù)、營業(yè)費及預(yù)定節(jié)余率,對于費率估測值與風(fēng)險等級明顯不符地區(qū)應(yīng)當(dāng)執(zhí)行必要的費率調(diào)整。
[Abstract]:In accordance with the principle of risk regional difference and regional similarity, according to the risk of citrus yield and the historical data of insurance in county (city), the risk zoning is based on the relative integrity of the borderline of the administrative region. Then the normal distribution Gamma distribution and Weibull distribution parameter model are used to fit the premium rate of citrus yield per unit yield in 20 counties and cities in southern Hunan, and the final correction is carried out. The results show that the county (city) difference of citrus yield risk is obvious. It is not suitable to adopt uniform insurance rate policy, and the pure rate of citrus yield insurance basically accords with the risk ranking of "low risk area in higher risk area", which indicates that the differential rate rate can better reflect the regional disaster risk. The actual insurance rate is not only related to risk, but also involves safety factor, operating expenses and predetermined rate of savings. The necessary rate adjustment should be carried out in areas where the estimated value of the rate is obviously inconsistent with the risk grade.
【作者單位】： 湖南農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;
【分類號】：F326.13;F842.66

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