發(fā)布時間：2018-03-06 09:19

  本文選題：土地利用結構　切入點：產(chǎn)業(yè)結構　出處：《內(nèi)蒙古師范大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：當前,經(jīng)濟發(fā)展對土地資源的需求和土地資源的稀缺性之間的矛盾,已經(jīng)成為制約區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的主要因素。調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結構轉(zhuǎn)型升級,剖析和解決影響產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的制約因素,優(yōu)化土地資源配置,使區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展和土地利用相互協(xié)調(diào)已經(jīng)成為經(jīng)濟持續(xù)健康發(fā)展的重要戰(zhàn)略。因此,揭示土地利用結構變化和產(chǎn)業(yè)結構變化的內(nèi)在規(guī)律,合理的分配有限的土地資源,使土地資源更好的滿足復雜多變的區(qū)域發(fā)展需要,對于解決當前新常態(tài)下區(qū)域發(fā)展中遇到的瓶頸和問題,具有很強的現(xiàn)實意義。本文定性分析土地利用結構與產(chǎn)業(yè)結構相互關系,并以扎賚特旗為研究區(qū),分析2005-2015年扎賚特旗土地利用狀況和產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展狀況,并根據(jù)研究區(qū)土地利用狀況及產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展狀況,嘗試建立基于產(chǎn)業(yè)結構的土地利用分類體系,深入分析了扎賚特旗產(chǎn)業(yè)用地結構的變化過程。在定性分析土地利用結構和產(chǎn)業(yè)結構相互關系的基礎上,運用格蘭杰因果關系檢驗法和多遠回歸模型定量分析三產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值變化與土地利用結構變化的互相影響機理,并利用灰色預測模型對扎賚特旗2016-2020年的三產(chǎn)業(yè)進行預測分析。通過以上分析,主要結論如下:(1)研究時段內(nèi),扎賚特旗產(chǎn)業(yè)結構不斷趨于合理化,但矛盾問題依然凸顯。第一產(chǎn)業(yè)是扎賚特旗主導產(chǎn)業(yè),資源要素投入高,粗放式發(fā)展,產(chǎn)業(yè)帶動效應不明顯。第二產(chǎn)業(yè)還未形成規(guī)模,工業(yè)發(fā)展基礎薄弱;第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展嚴重滯后,后勁不足。當前,產(chǎn)業(yè)結構格局為“123”。(2)產(chǎn)業(yè)用地比重懸殊。根據(jù)建立的產(chǎn)業(yè)用地分類體系,扎賚特旗第一產(chǎn)業(yè)用地比重高,占全旗土地總面積的88%左右。而第二產(chǎn)業(yè)用地和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)用地占極少部分,不足全旗土地面積的3%,第二第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展緩慢。后備產(chǎn)業(yè)用地資源豐富,占土地總面積近9%。(3)通過格蘭杰因果關系檢驗得出,扎賚特旗土地利用結構與產(chǎn)業(yè)結構密切相關。兩者之間存在雙向因果關系。但產(chǎn)業(yè)變化快于土地用地結構變化,兩者偏差系數(shù)很大。扎賚特旗土地利用結構與產(chǎn)業(yè)結構矛盾凸顯。根據(jù)回歸分析得出,第二產(chǎn)業(yè)與土地利用變化的相關性最大。(4)最后預測2016-2020年三次產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值。扎賚特旗未來幾年還是以第一產(chǎn)業(yè)為主導,第二三產(chǎn)業(yè)為輔的發(fā)展格局。預測數(shù)據(jù)顯示,2017年扎賚特旗第三產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值超過第二產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值,產(chǎn)業(yè)結構呈“132”結構模式。并提出未來發(fā)展應立足農(nóng)牧業(yè)資源優(yōu)勢做強一產(chǎn)、突出農(nóng)畜產(chǎn)品加工做大二產(chǎn)及以旅游文化產(chǎn)業(yè)為龍頭做好三產(chǎn)。(5)政策建議。扎賚特旗未來幾年的發(fā)展中,結合自然資源稟賦,注重提高發(fā)展的質(zhì)量和效益,注重產(chǎn)業(yè)結構和土地利用的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展,從主要依靠農(nóng)牧業(yè)經(jīng)濟帶動逐步向一二三產(chǎn)業(yè)深度融合發(fā)展轉(zhuǎn)變。應明確不同區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的比較優(yōu)勢與重點培育產(chǎn)業(yè),轉(zhuǎn)變發(fā)展方式,實現(xiàn)土地集約節(jié)約利用、加快完善土地市場機制、積極探索實踐“三規(guī)合一”,實現(xiàn)全面、協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展及利用與保護相結合,增強土地生態(tài)功能。
[Abstract]:At present, the contradiction between the scarcity of economic development the demand for land resources and land resources, has become a major factor restricting the development of regional economy. The transformation and upgrading of industrial structure adjustment, analyzing and solving the constraints affecting the development of the industry, optimize the allocation of land resources, the regional industrial development and land use coordination has become an important strategy for healthy economic development. Therefore, to reveal the regularity of change of land use structure and industrial structure changes, a reasonable allocation of the limited land resources, regional development needs the land resources to better meet the needs of the complex, to solve the bottleneck problems and the current regional development under the new normal, has a strong practical significance in this paper. The qualitative analysis of the relationship between land use structure and industrial structure, and taking Zhalaiteqi as the study area, analysis of 2005-2015 years with special flag land reserve Utilization and industrial development, and according to the status and development of land use in the study area, try to establish the industrial structure of land use classification system based on the in-depth analysis of Zhalaiteqi industrial land use changes in the structure of the process. In the qualitative analysis of the relationship between land use structure and industrial structure, using the output of the three industry changes and mechanism the change of land use structure interaction analysis of Grainger causality test and how far a quantitative regression model and the three industry, 2016-2020 years of Zhalaiteqi forecast analysis using grey prediction model. Through the above analysis, the main conclusions are as follows: (1) during the study period, Zhalaiteqi industrial structure is more reasonable, but the contradictions are still prominent the first industry is Zhalaiteqi leading industry, resource investment is high, extensive development, industry driven effect is not obvious. The two industry has not formed the scale, the industrial development foundation is weak; the development of the third industry is seriously lagging behind, lack of stamina. At present, the industrial structure is "123". (2) industrial land proportion disparity. According to the established industrial land classification system, the first industry Zhalaiteqi land proportion high, accounting for Quanqi total land area 88% about second. And the industrial land and industrial land accounted for third and few of its lack of land area of 3%, second and third industry developed slowly. The reserve of industrial land rich in resources, the total land area of nearly 9%. (3) by Grainger causality test showed that Zhalaiteqi land use structure and industrial structure are closely related. A two-way causal relationship between the two. But the industry changes quickly in the land use structure change, the deviation coefficient is large. Prominent structure and industrial structure contradiction of land use Zhalaiteqi. According to the regression analysis to get the article. The two industry and land use change (4). The correlation between the last 2016-2020 years to predict the output value of the three industries. Zhalaiteqi over the next few years to the first industry as the leading development pattern, the two or three industry subsidiary. The forecast data show that in 2017 the Zhalaiteqi third industrial output value over second of industrial output value, industrial structure is "132" mode. And put forward the future development should be based on the advantages of resources of agriculture and animal husbandry industry a stronger production, outstanding agricultural and livestock products processing stage and the bigger cultural tourism industry as the leading to three. (5) Zhalaiteqi policy recommendations. The development of the next few years, according to natural resources, improve the quality and efficiency of development, focusing on the coordination the development of industrial structure and land use, leading to the 123 industry gradually shift from relying mainly on the depth of integration and development of agriculture and animal husbandry economy. Comparative advantage should clarify the different regional industrial development And focus on cultivating industry, transforming development mode, realizing intensive and economical utilization of land, accelerating the improvement of land market mechanism, and actively exploring the practice of "three rules in one", so as to achieve comprehensive and coordinated development, and combine land use and protection to enhance land ecological function.

【學位授予單位】：內(nèi)蒙古師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F121.3;F301.24

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